January 7 - 8 ULL potential

[tnweathernut]

This will be a nowcast situation, as several thought all along.  These lows tend to be very hit or miss, just the nature of how they evolve as they move west to east.  The only place I feel good about an accumulating snow are the mountains along the east TN border, and especially western NC.  

[tnweathernut]

That's 18z yesterday [mention=1186]tnweathernut[/mention] 
It looked waaayyy too good for my area, so I had to do a double take, lol. 

Good catch. Not sure how that happened, but as I get older my eyes don’t see this iPhone near as well. lol



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[PowellVolz]

Mods are loving most of ETn now including the valley


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z RGEM came back NW too:

[ShawnEastTN]

This is going to be such an interesting event to watch play out. Currently my weather station is reporting 35.7 degrees dewpoint of 29 and radar returns about 20 miles away as the crow flies. I think this one has high potential to bust high and be full of surprises.

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[Daniel Boone]

Looking alot like Feb. 15, 2004. Feast or famine with sharp north cutoff.

[Daniel Boone]

In case anyone saw my last post . I corrected the date of that event . It was Feb. 15 2005. 

    Would post maps from then but, too sick even do it now. Tennessee folks check that one out. Even bordering counties in Va. were clocked.

[PowellVolz]

This is going to be such an interesting event to watch play out. Currently my weather station is reporting 35.7 degrees dewpoint of 29 and radar returns about 20 miles away as the crow flies. I think this one has high potential to bust high and be full of surprises.

 

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It has high bust both ways in the valley. If low elevation doesn’t get the rates, it could be all rain. It ain’t warming up outside like I expected it to though.

 

 

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[John1122]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

In case anyone saw my last post . I corrected the date of that event . It was Feb. 15 2005. 

    Would post maps from then but, too sick even do it now. Tennessee folks check that one out. Even bordering counties in Va. were clocked.

Are you sure it's 2005? I was in the 50s that day, as was Tazewell and Oneida. Even LeConte was 48. 

[John1122]

Made it down to 23 this morning. Cloudy and 33 as noon arrives. 

[Wintersnow888]

Nws finally issued WWA for the Plateau.They have 1-2" with possibly 3" in spots....

[McMinnWx]

Up to 37 here. 

[Dsty2001]

MRX has a tough call on this one, while I normally give them a lot of crap I can see why they are gunshy about this one.  Has the potential to bust both ways

[ShawnEastTN]

It has high bust both ways in the valley. If low elevation doesn’t get the rates, it could be all rain. It ain’t warming up outside like I expected it to though.
 
 
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That is true, I just keep watching my dewpoint which has held relatively steady only wavering between 27 and 29 and not following the normal temperature curve. Winds have so far maintained a NE average imby also. Of course I expect a lot of that to change as we move into the event but still gives me pause as dewpoint and wind direction usually are my go to indicators for events like this where small differences can mean wet VS white.

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[Daniel Boone]

13 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Are you sure it's 2005? I was in the 50s that day, as was Tazewell and Oneida. Even LeConte was 48. 

My bad John. It was 04. I used to have all storms memorised to the day but, antiquity along with health has really played a number.

[AMZ8990]

Light rain starting to fall on the west side of the state, storm system is definitely wound up as it’s moving into the area.  

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

My bad John. It was 04. I used to have all storms memorised to the day but, antiquity along with health has really played a number.

No worries at all my friend. That was a rain to snow event with 3-5 inches around the area at least along the border counties. I worked in West Knoxville at the time. Heavy rain there transitioned to rain/snow mix around Clinton exit, all snow around Lake City exit and a heavy paste job from just south of Caryville and points north here. Looks like Oneida, Tazewell, and TRI all had similar amounts. Knoxville only had a trace of snow at TYS but about ,70 rain.

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

No worries at all my friend. That was a rain to snow event with 3-5 inches around the area at least along the border counties. I worked in West Knoxville at the time. Heavy rain there transitioned to rain/snow mix around Clinton exit, all snow around Lake City exit and a heavy paste job from just south of Caryville and points north here. Looks like Oneida, Tazewell, and TRI all had similar amounts. Knoxville only had a trace of snow at TYS but about ,70 rain.

Thanks buddy. Yeah, that one was rather odd. Marginal temps.

     The most reported was right along the border of Tenn/ Va. where 8-9 " accumulated. Power outages occurred as limbs fell. I measured 5 at my home in west of Jonesville near the Cedars area then *(in the Valley at 1400 ft). Had limbs fall . Heavy and wet. 

      It was 47 degrees just b4 precip began with a stiff NE wind . I watched snow move up Powell Mountain and spread Ne. Then it started as a lt rain that very quickly mixed as DPS were upper 20s then. It became heavy and rapidly changed to all snow. 

      I worked with a guy then that lived just 2 miles south of me and he said he had 8" 

      I went to Stickleyville(ele; 1650) the next morning and there was 9" there.  From there traversed to Big Stone Gap where there was none ! Keokee on a plateau in Northern Lee, *ele, 2400ft+-) none.

[TellicoWx]

Euro not backing down

[TellicoWx]

[Dsty2001]

4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Lock it in

[Shocker0]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

No worries at all my friend. That was a rain to snow event with 3-5 inches around the area at least along the border counties. I worked in West Knoxville at the time. Heavy rain there transitioned to rain/snow mix around Clinton exit, all snow around Lake City exit and a heavy paste job from just south of Caryville and points north here. Looks like Oneida, Tazewell, and TRI all had similar amounts. Knoxville only had a trace of snow at TYS but about ,70 rain.

Good article about this event here: https://www.weather.gov/hun/hunsur_2004-02-15

I have a good story about that event. I lived just across the border in McCreary County, KY at the time (north of Oneida) and they called for 8-12 inches of snow starting that night. We were going to church south of Oneida that night (it hadn't started snowing yet) and were seeing cars coming northbound with snow plastered on their front bumpers like they had ran into heavy snow recently, but yet it was completely dry for us. We finally got to the road the church was on and snow just started pouring down harder than I've ever seen. We had to turn around and on the way out several cars were already in the ditch.

By the time we got back home just 20min away it was still completely dry. It never snowed a flake that night at our house despite the 8-12 inches that was forecast. Later on the news we saw where random parts of Morgan County and Crossville area received up to a foot of snow, while we were bone dry. Here's a picture of the snow depth on that day so you can see how finicky the system was.

 

 

 

[ShawnEastTN]

MRX have pulled the SPS. Might replace it with another SPS, or advisory or combination of the 2 coming this afternoon.

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[tnweathernut]

If nothing else, the Euro has been absolutely rock solid run after run, especially in putting the bullseye on northeast TN.  It might be rock solidly bad when this is said and done, but its consistency has been remarkable.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

MRX have pulled the SPS. Might replace it with another SPS, or advisory or combination of the 2 coming this afternoon.

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Either GFS/UKIE are going to pull the ultimate coup, or they are completely lost...rest modeling world has generally same are from southern middle TN, running up the plateau, and points east

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

MRX have pulled the SPS. Might replace it with another SPS, or advisory or combination of the 2 coming this afternoon.

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I expect a WWA at least, models are showing WSW level snow falling.

[TellicoWx]

Even the GFS upgrade says the old system is lost

[fountainguy97]

A very nice kind of similar theme is starting to develop now that we are inside 24 hrs lol.

 

still a lot of variation between some models but we are getting there.

[Jed33]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Even the GFS upgrade says the old system is lost

Yeah it’s really bad, but the regular gfs finally started to come around a little at least for NE TN down to just NE of Knoxville at 12z 

[John1122]

Poor MRX, the models still can't agree, say downsloping could be an issue for eastern areas, the plateau and SWVA cold enough for snow but not all models give precip, the central valley borderline for snow or rain. This is one of the most complicated forecasts you can have. I don't envy any position they take regarding winter products.