CentralNC Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 41 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Only one real outlier (of 13.3”) in the SREF plumes for GSO. Throw that one out and it’s a mean of 3.3”. I expect no more than half of that and even that could be irrational exuberance. Cut them at least in half when dealing with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 06Z Euro crushes WNC. Plenty of moisture available. Words like "Crush" deserve a map. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 WRAL believes that accumulations are most likely N&W of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 06Z Euro crushes WNC. Plenty of moisture available. Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Words like "Crush" deserve a map. Indeed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Indeed. Has all the snow ended after that image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Has all the snow ended after that image? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Has all the snow ended after that image? Yes. The ULL falls apart over western NC and the VA highlands, leaving spotty light precipitation east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Has all the snow ended after that image? Thanks...not much imby per 6z euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Loooong range HRRR looks nice. An initial thump like this would go a long way towards dropping surface temps (even factoring in the HRRR's cold bias) may get sleetier than expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 HRRR is colder but usually not very good at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 NWS GSP's overnight thoughts... Quote .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday: The weather topic of the short term will be detailing the ins and outs of the incoming system that will enter the area. An open upper trough currently sitting over the Rockies will nosedive to the south and east as it tracks towards the lower MS Valley by the start of the forecast period. Model guidance evolves the trough into an upper low at this point as it scoots towards the area with a sfc low developing underneath once the upper low taps into the western portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect this system to ride north of the Gulf Coast as it approaches the Southeast by late Thursday into Friday. High clouds will move into the region early Thursday with the clouds deepening and lowering by Thursday afternoon. Ample moisture advection coming off the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and the Atlantic once the sfc low approaches the Southeast coastline by Thursday night/early Friday will allow for the cwa to become relatively saturated. Thursday will be fairly cool and dry with PoPs entering the southwestern portions of the cwa by Thursday afternoon and spreading northeast through the evening and into the overnight hours. QPF amounts still differ from run to run per model guidance, but has not changed much overall. Locations that remain mostly liquid should see QPF amounts of ~0.25" - 0.50+" for the duration of this event. The 850 mb low has trended slightly northward over the past couple of model runs and would likely surge a warm nose into the region, despite a surge of colder air aloft from the upper low. Mixed p-types will likely occur at the transition zone and very light accumulations of ice could be in store at locations that fall under the zone. As of now, the mountains will have enough cold air to support a mostly snow event as a broad sfc high sets up shop to the north and pumps in colder air in the low levels. With a warm nose being indicated by the NAM and trending that way with global models, light ice accumulations could reach as far west as the northern foothills and Escarpment during the first hour or two at the onset of precip, which would lower overall snow totals. A mix of rain/snow seems evident between the I-40 and I-85 corridor with the transition zone likely to settle somewhere between the two corridors. A shift slightly to the south could bring the transition zone closer to the I-85 corridor and provide the lower Piedmont and Upstate of SC a brief period of wintry precip Friday morning, when temperatures are cold enough at the surface. A few inches of snow is looking more likely for the higher elevations with some locations receiving 6+" at the highest peaks. An inch or two is becoming more apparent north and along the I-40 corridor, a tighter gradient of snow/ice accumulations between I-40 and I-85, and a possible dusting can`t be ruled out along the I-85 corridor when it`s all said and done by Friday night. Another factor to consider is determining where the deformation band develops. Model guidance have hinted at placing the band between I- 40 and I-85, which would produce a few locations with more snow than what is forecasted, but it is way too early to determine the exact set up of the deformation band. Areas south of I-85 may see a few snowflakes mix in, but temperatures from the sfc to ~850 mb will likely be too warm to support any brief periods of snow, especially with a warm nose becoming more apparent as the event closes in on the area. Expect the upper low and sfc to exit the region by Friday night as dry, NW flow builds in and dries the area out with the exception of favorable upslope NW flow snow lingering in the northern mountains and along the TN Border Friday night/early Saturday. Temperatures will likely remain below normal for a good portion of the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: HRRR is colder but usually not very good at this range. Still has a lot of moisture after this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 NAM keeps inching warmer each run here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Still has a lot of moisture after this image Maybe, but it only goes out to 48 so no telling what it does. Euro and NAM spin the energy in WNC till it dies out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Some reason the new SREF plumes aren't working for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Hours 42 and 45 it’s ripping in WNC extreme northern upstate and NE GA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Hours 42 and 45 it’s ripping in WNC extreme northern upstate and NE GA Showing some mix here and ZR in French broad river valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The foothills and mountains get Name'd! , Southern VA to... system a little stronger this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Hours 42 and 45 it’s ripping in WNC extreme northern upstate and NE GA Which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, CentralNC said: Which model? 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwisephoto Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Which model? We need some maps. Us Lenoir folks are sitting on a cliff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Jwisephoto said: We need some maps. Us Lenoir folks are sitting on a cliff Still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 12Z NAM Yeah NAM treatin me right so far here in the western piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Rutherford sweet spot? @strongwxnc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Man! NC and Southern VA are getting NAMD!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Rutherford sweet spot? @strongwxnc Yeah saw that. WTH? Thats very weird but makes sense as you increase elevation from the SE-SW int he county. Lift must be nice on this run. Check please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 For RDU, I'm thinking -- initial thump (mix/sleet?), over to light rain for a bit, end in some higher rates as final bands move W-E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Wow what a NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Hi Res NAM is beautiful for mountains and foothills 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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