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IrishRob17

Interior NW & NE Burbs 2021

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Good Thursday morning, March 11, Below was my take for a few FB friends along I84 northward.  
 
Sunday EDT change and flurries (except small accumulation Adirondacks), then modest wintry episodes next week M (15)-early W (17)and again Th-Fr 18-19.
 
Monday - Wednesday (15-early 17): Snow-ice probably ending as rain for a large chunk of the northeast USA. I84 corridor: Snow develops sometime Tuesday and ends by sunrise Wednesday either as ice or rain. Too early to lock in snowfall but my guess:  I84 anywhere from 1" minimum to a low chance of a much as 7" for a few high terrain locations. Models still uncertain on developments but something wintry is coming. EPS is the only ensemble less than 1/4" w.e. qpf now, and this was followed by WPC on the their overnight shift which has basically nothing for I84.  So uncertainty continues but from my perspective snow to ice is an 80-90% chance of occurrence for the suburbs w-n NYC, in part by the -NAO.  Please see attached 06z/11 GEFS ensemble 500MB for 18z/Tue-16 and 06z/Wed-17 with confluence to our north and nice short wave heading into the mid Atlantic.  I like this look and presuming it holds (still spaghetti uncertainty in the members- tho I don't think south anymore). 
 
Thursday-Friday (18-19): I80 northward including I84: More hazardous snow accumulation expected but may change to rain. 656A/11 posted 742A/11

Screen Shot 2021-03-11 at 7.36.12 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-03-11 at 7.36.27 AM.png

Interior NW & NE Burbs 2021 - Page 29 - New York City Metro - American Weather.webloc

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8 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Anyone else getting very light flurries? I just let the dog out and was pretty surprised to see it happening.

I hesitate to post this, but I can’t resist.  Who let the dogs out?

surprised at how much snow is hanging on here.

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Those flurries turned to mist then thick fog as the warm moist air won out over the dry air that was in place. The fog was super thick this morning but it's all burned off now and warming up nicely.

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1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

49/42 with lots of cloud debris... starting to think the HRRR might not have the strongest grasp on reality today.

ydpVNUx.png

And how do you feel now?  The same?  Temp climbing here, up to 58 now and the satellite looks clear to the west. 

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3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

62,  first outside shorts day of the year for me. 

Don’t forget the sunscreen, Irish. Red is not the color you want on the 17th. As always .....

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60° and I'm officially calling an end to the snowpack today (trumpets play, the choir sings).

Although there's still a surprising amount of snow coverage at noon today we are near or below the 50% threshold and I can't in good conscience call this a day with snow cover. For the season it's 53 days of snowpack and 43 straight days from January 27 through March 11th. I'm one of those people that doesn't want winter to end until the middle of April but it's been a decent winter so I'm okay with 60° today and melting snow/iceberg, it actually feels great. No complaints though if it snows next week.

59.4 inches for the season, I'd still like to make it to the 65-70 inch range.

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11 minutes ago, rclab said:

Don’t forget the sunscreen, Irish. Red is not the color you want on the 17th. As always .....

One of the worse sunburns I ever had was from skiing on St Paddy’s Day in 1994.  Thankfully it was limited to my face, neck, and a small dome shape on the back of my bald head from the opening on my adjustable cap.  Been carrying sunscreen in the car ever since, never leave home without it!  But I’m home today anyway, enjoying what Mother Nature is throwing at me right now. 

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I never want winter to end, but the first warm day always has me craving golf and listening to centerfield with the windows down...

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You may get your wish. No thread (yet) but V16 has a stripe of 3-7" across I84 corridor by 21Z/19 including 2-5" 16th and another batch 18-19. The massive snowstorm on the 12z/11 GFS is probably not likely, but decent wet snow possible, maybe even NYC if we can hold the -NAO long enough.  So, back to backs possible I84. 

 

57,59, 67 the past 3 days here at 740'MSL in extreme nw NJ No, a Trace doesn't cover the open to sun ground, but the woods might qualify for a T. Still swaths of 1-2" in the sunny open ground.  

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Same here. Some of the yards that drifted in during that first storm are still 6+" deep and north faces are still pretty well covered but otherwise it's mud city. My yard is nasty, even the dog doesn't want to go off the patio.

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Same here. Some of the yards that drifted in during that first storm are still 6+" deep and north faces are still pretty well covered but otherwise it's mud city. My yard is nasty, even the dog doesn't want to go off the patio.

Mud season certainly gets an A+ this year!

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Status report: the snowpack has now been 100% vaporized. It had a good run but here's hoping next week can give us some more snow one last time before Winter finally does relent (probably past the 23rd?) but even then those events (3-6" at best?) are probably followed by 40s the next day that evaporate the snow anyway

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I've been going around the yard picking up the crap that comes out as the snow melts and securing stuff ahead of the wind tonight and keep sinking in the mud. It's nice to work on the car and catch up on some minor rattle stopping projects. 

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14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Last patch of unpiledsnow trying to hold on

C24BD26F-D3E5-4363-837F-DFB51FFE3E4D.jpeg

Good morning Irish. I would enjoy seeing this photo in a four season shot. Unlike those of us, in our waning days, the snow will return. As always, ...

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11 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning Irish. I would enjoy seeing this photo in a four season shot. Unlike those of us, in our waning days, the snow will return. As always, ...

Good morning!  I like photos like that, I did this one a few years ago now 

72312666-685C-47F2-9D79-08303AC5CF3F.jpeg

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5 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Good morning!  I like photos like that, I did this one a few years ago now 

72312666-685C-47F2-9D79-08303AC5CF3F.jpeg

Thank you, Irish, magnificent photos. They could certainly grace a weather sub forum calendar, if we ever published one. As always ....

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Just a quick note for the nw-n suburbs (I84 corridor). Relatively small events today, Tuesday-Wednesday morning and around Friday.

Spring forward today: wind driven dustings of flurries I84 corridor  with maybe a spotty half inch or so? (MA, Pocs). Wind gusts midday-this afternoon similar to those of early Saturday, maybe a touch higher with isolated power outages---generally 40-50 MPH. (I missed forecasting the gusts of early Friday where we in Wantage had 43MPH-320A).  No thread anticipated since trees not leaved. 
 
Tuesday evening-Noon Wednesday:  I78 northward to I84 (Tuesday night-Wednesday morning). Looks like (not guaranteed) a period of snow and possibly ice. If snow, generally an inch or less (spotty 2" possible high terrain?). iI ice, it would be minor but hazardous for untreated surfaces during the Tuesday night hours.  
 
Friday (19): I78-I84 corridors: A decent event of rain and snow. The snow fall is questionable but should be monitored for some possible impact, especially I84 high terrain. 
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