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IrishRob17

Interior NW & NE Burbs 2021

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14 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

My favorite thing this time of year is people on like the south shore of LI talking about how the pattern is unfavorable until at least mid-March. Got bad news buddy...

I mean it is over there lol.  I have the unusual blessing of living in two entirely different climates.  The south shore of LI is definitely "humid subtropical"....the crazy thing is I feel a lot colder in the house I have on the south shore than I do up at 2000 ft in the Poconos.  That house is like a sieve down there and whenever the wind blows I can feel it.  Cloudy days with wind are the worse, I keep a space heater going at 80 degrees in my bedroom in addition to the house heat being on.  In my other home in the mountains I turn down the heat and keep the fireplace going all night and feel perfectly fine in a t-shirt.

 

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Latitude doesn't matter as much as elevation here I guess.....I'm pretty much snowed in.  We had 3 inches last night, and I measured snow depth in various places, it's over 20 inches everywhere it seems, I'd say an average of about 25" and 4 feet drifts up against my deck.  This is going to take a long time to melt.  It's hard as a MF cant see any animal tracks anywhere and that's unusual because I have squirrels, rabbits, foxes, etc. here.

 

Yes, this is certainly more elevation based. Once you go 10 miles to my north and drop off the plateau, there is only a few inches of snow pack and grass already showing. That’s at 1,400 to 1,500’ feet. I also took a drive out near Scranton/Wilkes barre in the valley city area yesterday, and they literally have no snow pack in most areas under 1,000’ feet, just bare ground. 

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8.5 inches otg this morning. 59.4 inches for the season, 36° currently.

As I've stated Ad nauseam the last several days this snow pack is not going anywhere quickly. February was a very good month for snow pack, with over a foot on the ground for 24 of the 28 days. I'll sign for that any year.

January was bad, pretty snowless and above normal temps, and December was ruined by the Christmas Eve nightmare which washed away a beautiful white Christmas in one horrifying night.

It will be up to March whether this winter grades exceptional or just okay. We shall see.

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20 hours ago, NepaJames8602 said:

Yes, this is certainly more elevation based. Once you go 10 miles to my north and drop off the plateau, there is only a few inches of snow pack and grass already showing. That’s at 1,400 to 1,500’ feet. I also took a drive out near Scranton/Wilkes barre in the valley city area yesterday, and they literally have no snow pack in most areas under 1,000’ feet, just bare ground. 

media coverage of the mountains is frustratingly bad.  Watch NEP or any of the other networks and they behave like the mountains dont even exist in their forecasts or that they're only a place to go skiing not where people actually live lol.

 

Snowcover is actually closer to 30"  I'll be posting some pics, I just have to sort through them.

 

edit I cant post a 4.4 mb image?

 

 

 

 

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Good Monday morning everyone! It's March 1. For the I84 corridor. Looks like a cold first week of March and generally mild the second week, after the 8th.
 
Below restates what is obviously modeled.
 
Tonight 7PM/1 -3AM/2. Turning sharply colder with bands of flurries and snow showers causing a few areas of hazardous travel as temps fall from near freezing at 7PM to between 5 and 15 above by dawn Tuesday, along with gusty northwest winds 35-45 MPH and wind chill down just below zero. Most areas only flurries, but a half inch of snow is possible a few locations. A wind advisory is posted.
 
This coming weekend: A period of light snow is possible? Northwest flow clipper-reinforcing cold front...not the large strong ocean storm modeled by the EPS.
 
Whatever snowpack greater than 2 inches that is on the ground at sundown today has a good chance of remaining nearly intact through March 8th, with only minor melt along the edges.  
 
As written in prior posts. Wantage, High Point still in pretty deep snowpack. Was at exit 8 I84 (Cobb) at 2000 feet yesterday. VERY impressive deep pack there.  
 

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Great. Thanx.

Still at 99% snowpack on undisturbed areas but anything with any southerly aspect to it is thin or clear as are the areas that blew clean during that first big storm especially on the south side of big trees and dark backdrops. Let's get this cold front in here to lock this stuff up. How cold are we gonna get tonight, 10*? Lower?

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Great. Thanx.

Still at 99% snowpack on undisturbed areas but anything with any southerly aspect to it is thin or clear as are the areas that blew clean during that first big storm especially on the south side of big trees and dark backdrops. Let's get this cold front in here to lock this stuff up. How cold are we gonna get tonight, 10*? Lower?

I’m going for 10 above tonight +/-5. Somehow we will still hold the pack here despite the fact that some serious grass patches are now emerging. The death knell for our pack is almost certainly the warmup for next week—IF we see 50+ degrees for more than a day or two.

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Currently 18° morning low of 14°, windy as hell brutal out, 6.5 inches of snow otg.

34 consecutive days with snow cover and 30 days consecutive above half a foot, 44 days of snow cover for the winter. One of my criteria for a winter to be a C+ or above is 30 consecutive days of snow cover at some point and at least 50 days in total. It looks like both will be met this year.

At 59.4 inches for the season now, which is already 10 inches above normal for a full season, any half way decent March should grade this winter out as a B. If somehow we had snow cover for almost all of March this still has B+ potential, however atm that looks unlikely.

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22 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I’m going for 10 above tonight +/-5. Somehow we will still hold the pack here despite the fact that some serious grass patches are now emerging. The death knell for our pack is almost certainly the warmup for next week—IF we see 50+ degrees for more than a day or two.

So it looks like we probably won’t have a storm for this weekend upcoming: can reasonably infer now that it will spell the end of our pack without any storm threats until probably after next week. The March transitional period can be weird but here’s hoping we can see some snowcover on the first day of Spring. 

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1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

So it looks like we probably won’t have a storm for this weekend upcoming: can reasonably infer now that it will spell the end of our pack without any storm threats until probably after next week. The March transitional period can be weird but here’s hoping we can see some snowcover on the first day of Spring. 

Modeling is trying but you know how that goes...  1 member out of the coming 3000+ leading up the 17th. Hope folks can refrain from a thread til ensemble support, or multiple days GFS/GGEM/EC.   I know folks are for want of more snow but it's been a pretty decent winter, especially with expectations generally for a less than stellar winter.  To hold off the first 2021, 60 or 70 degree temp til ~the 9th-10th.  That's why we have a nice snow cover for the animals to walk and roll on today. Pretty cool and am mentally prepared to see it go.

Which brings me to the future of my own thread initiations on the forum.  After March 14, probably very-very limited to hazardous winter only - if that, or maybe a flooding rain threat in summer, but potentially nil. Certainly no severe's as last summer (had too many svr threads anyway). The plan is for me to get back to some part time work March 15.  Enjoyment of family-activities, property landscaping, late summer travel will preclude me from initiating threads. Just too much for me to maintain a close eye upon ea thread, as well as wrap-ups.I feel obligated once Initiated, that I need to stay on top of them (helps keep me more conservative). Just can't do that once am back working.  So... have had plenty of top contributions in the forum that have helped me look at new approaches and for the most part, the long lead threads have been of value. After March 14, probably hands off for me.  Been fun to be a witness to the utility of large scale modeling predictability. We're sooooo far ahead of where we were, even a decade or two ago.  

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Oh noooo, I'll certainly miss your regular input.

Still full coverage but that's totally aspect dependent. In the bigger picture I'd call it 75% but there are some southerly aspects that are completely snow free so it really is a zonal thing. Even at 25* today there is melting happening and the ice sheets from this morning are gone and the pavement is drying up. Winters back is definitely broken. I'll be fine if it doesn't snow again, moving my wife around with the broken ankle is a hassle even when it's dry and I need to move my 94 year old father in law out of his place on Friday and into a new place but with dementia he's no help so it's all me. 

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35 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Modeling is trying but you know how that goes...  1 member out of the coming 3000+ leading up the 17th. Hope folks can refrain from a thread til ensemble support, or multiple days GFS/GGEM/EC.   I know folks are for want of more snow but it's been a pretty decent winter, especially with expectations generally for a less than stellar winter.  To hold off the first 2021, 60 or 70 degree temp til ~the 9th-10th.  That's why we have a nice snow cover for the animals to walk and roll on today. Pretty cool and am mentally prepared to see it go.

Which brings me to the future of my own thread initiations on the forum.  After March 14, probably very-very limited to hazardous winter only - if that, or maybe a flooding rain threat in summer, but potentially nil. Certainly no severe's as last summer (had too many svr threads anyway). The plan is for me to get back to some part time work March 15.  Enjoyment of family-activities, property landscaping, late summer travel will preclude me from initiating threads. Just too much for me to maintain a close eye upon ea thread, as well as wrap-ups.I feel obligated once Initiated, that I need to stay on top of them (helps keep me more conservative). Just can't do that once am back working.  So... have had plenty of top contributions in the forum that have helped me look at new approaches and for the most part, the long lead threads have been of value. After March 14, probably hands off for me.  Been fun to be a witness to the utility of large scale modeling predictability. We're sooooo far ahead of where we were, even a decade or two ago.  

When i sit in my postage stamp at twilight, during those warm summer evenings as the harbor sea breeze whistles through the fire escape and stirs the mortar dust from the old brick facade ..... I’ll look at the city light contaminated sky and think, “Walt will be back”. As always ....

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41 minutes ago, rclab said:

When i sit in my postage stamp at twilight, during those warm summer evenings as the harbor sea breeze whistles through the fire escape and stirs the mortar dust from the old brick facade ..... I’ll look at the city light contaminated sky and think, “Walt will be back”. As always ....

Once in a while...  i enjoy,  but takes lots of time to do justice. 

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Modeling is trying but you know how that goes...  1 member out of the coming 3000+ leading up the 17th. Hope folks can refrain from a thread til ensemble support, or multiple days GFS/GGEM/EC.   I know folks are for want of more snow but it's been a pretty decent winter, especially with expectations generally for a less than stellar winter.  To hold off the first 2021, 60 or 70 degree temp til ~the 9th-10th.  That's why we have a nice snow cover for the animals to walk and roll on today. Pretty cool and am mentally prepared to see it go.

Which brings me to the future of my own thread initiations on the forum.  After March 14, probably very-very limited to hazardous winter only - if that, or maybe a flooding rain threat in summer, but potentially nil. Certainly no severe's as last summer (had too many svr threads anyway). The plan is for me to get back to some part time work March 15.  Enjoyment of family-activities, property landscaping, late summer travel will preclude me from initiating threads. Just too much for me to maintain a close eye upon ea thread, as well as wrap-ups.I feel obligated once Initiated, that I need to stay on top of them (helps keep me more conservative). Just can't do that once am back working.  So... have had plenty of top contributions in the forum that have helped me look at new approaches and for the most part, the long lead threads have been of value. After March 14, probably hands off for me.  Been fun to be a witness to the utility of large scale modeling predictability. We're sooooo far ahead of where we were, even a decade or two ago.  

Will miss your regular input, Walter.  Thanks for all your contributions.  

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Modeling is trying but you know how that goes...  1 member out of the coming 3000+ leading up the 17th. Hope folks can refrain from a thread til ensemble support, or multiple days GFS/GGEM/EC.   I know folks are for want of more snow but it's been a pretty decent winter, especially with expectations generally for a less than stellar winter.  To hold off the first 2021, 60 or 70 degree temp til ~the 9th-10th.  That's why we have a nice snow cover for the animals to walk and roll on today. Pretty cool and am mentally prepared to see it go.

Which brings me to the future of my own thread initiations on the forum.  After March 14, probably very-very limited to hazardous winter only - if that, or maybe a flooding rain threat in summer, but potentially nil. Certainly no severe's as last summer (had too many svr threads anyway). The plan is for me to get back to some part time work March 15.  Enjoyment of family-activities, property landscaping, late summer travel will preclude me from initiating threads. Just too much for me to maintain a close eye upon ea thread, as well as wrap-ups.I feel obligated once Initiated, that I need to stay on top of them (helps keep me more conservative). Just can't do that once am back working.  So... have had plenty of top contributions in the forum that have helped me look at new approaches and for the most part, the long lead threads have been of value. After March 14, probably hands off for me.  Been fun to be a witness to the utility of large scale modeling predictability. We're sooooo far ahead of where we were, even a decade or two ago.  

Just want to make clear how appreciated your posts are.  Thank you.

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Modeling is trying but you know how that goes...  1 member out of the coming 3000+ leading up the 17th. Hope folks can refrain from a thread til ensemble support, or multiple days GFS/GGEM/EC.   I know folks are for want of more snow but it's been a pretty decent winter, especially with expectations generally for a less than stellar winter.  To hold off the first 2021, 60 or 70 degree temp til ~the 9th-10th.  That's why we have a nice snow cover for the animals to walk and roll on today. Pretty cool and am mentally prepared to see it go.

Which brings me to the future of my own thread initiations on the forum.  After March 14, probably very-very limited to hazardous winter only - if that, or maybe a flooding rain threat in summer, but potentially nil. Certainly no severe's as last summer (had too many svr threads anyway). The plan is for me to get back to some part time work March 15.  Enjoyment of family-activities, property landscaping, late summer travel will preclude me from initiating threads. Just too much for me to maintain a close eye upon ea thread, as well as wrap-ups.I feel obligated once Initiated, that I need to stay on top of them (helps keep me more conservative). Just can't do that once am back working.  So... have had plenty of top contributions in the forum that have helped me look at new approaches and for the most part, the long lead threads have been of value. After March 14, probably hands off for me.  Been fun to be a witness to the utility of large scale modeling predictability. We're sooooo far ahead of where we were, even a decade or two ago.  

Well, thanks for a great winter.  Just curious, is your PT work wx-related or non-wx/other?

Snowcover is down to a trace here, but it's a significant trace and the sunglasses still help a lot with reflection off of the remaining snow.   There is still 2" at the stake and more in a lot of places, but can't in good conscience call it more than a trace with less than 50% coverage in total.  The sun always wins.

High temp here has been 32.0 and it's backed off a little, but I think temperature maxes in bright sun at this time of year can easily occur towards 5pm.

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3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Modeling is trying but you know how that goes...  1 member out of the coming 3000+ leading up the 17th. Hope folks can refrain from a thread til ensemble support, or multiple days GFS/GGEM/EC.   I know folks are for want of more snow but it's been a pretty decent winter, especially with expectations generally for a less than stellar winter.  To hold off the first 2021, 60 or 70 degree temp til ~the 9th-10th.  That's why we have a nice snow cover for the animals to walk and roll on today. Pretty cool and am mentally prepared to see it go.

Which brings me to the future of my own thread initiations on the forum.  After March 14, probably very-very limited to hazardous winter only - if that, or maybe a flooding rain threat in summer, but potentially nil. Certainly no severe's as last summer (had too many svr threads anyway). The plan is for me to get back to some part time work March 15.  Enjoyment of family-activities, property landscaping, late summer travel will preclude me from initiating threads. Just too much for me to maintain a close eye upon ea thread, as well as wrap-ups.I feel obligated once Initiated, that I need to stay on top of them (helps keep me more conservative). Just can't do that once am back working.  So... have had plenty of top contributions in the forum that have helped me look at new approaches and for the most part, the long lead threads have been of value. After March 14, probably hands off for me.  Been fun to be a witness to the utility of large scale modeling predictability. We're sooooo far ahead of where we were, even a decade or two ago.  

Thank you Walt!
Your threads are most appreciated and we truly love your insight and sharing with us the knowledge you have. Enjoy the family activities they definitely come first and we will see your future posts at your leisure. :thumbsup:

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11 hours ago, wdrag said:

Modeling is trying but you know how that goes...  1 member out of the coming 3000+ leading up the 17th. Hope folks can refrain from a thread til ensemble support, or multiple days GFS/GGEM/EC.   I know folks are for want of more snow but it's been a pretty decent winter, especially with expectations generally for a less than stellar winter.  To hold off the first 2021, 60 or 70 degree temp til ~the 9th-10th.  That's why we have a nice snow cover for the animals to walk and roll on today. Pretty cool and am mentally prepared to see it go.

Which brings me to the future of my own thread initiations on the forum.  After March 14, probably very-very limited to hazardous winter only - if that, or maybe a flooding rain threat in summer, but potentially nil. Certainly no severe's as last summer (had too many svr threads anyway). The plan is for me to get back to some part time work March 15.  Enjoyment of family-activities, property landscaping, late summer travel will preclude me from initiating threads. Just too much for me to maintain a close eye upon ea thread, as well as wrap-ups.I feel obligated once Initiated, that I need to stay on top of them (helps keep me more conservative). Just can't do that once am back working.  So... have had plenty of top contributions in the forum that have helped me look at new approaches and for the most part, the long lead threads have been of value. After March 14, probably hands off for me.  Been fun to be a witness to the utility of large scale modeling predictability. We're sooooo far ahead of where we were, even a decade or two ago.  

Enjoy your time away Walt but I fully expect you back by late October when especially here in the  interior northern burbs we start looking for our first measurable snows and we can’t do it without you. Thanks for all of your input and see you around October 25th for full time duty. Rest up and enjoy life till then. Hopefully next winter you’ll have lots more threads to create. 

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18 hours ago, wdrag said:

Modeling is trying but you know how that goes...  1 member out of the coming 3000+ leading up the 17th. Hope folks can refrain from a thread til ensemble support, or multiple days GFS/GGEM/EC.   I know folks are for want of more snow but it's been a pretty decent winter, especially with expectations generally for a less than stellar winter.  To hold off the first 2021, 60 or 70 degree temp til ~the 9th-10th.  That's why we have a nice snow cover for the animals to walk and roll on today. Pretty cool and am mentally prepared to see it go.

Which brings me to the future of my own thread initiations on the forum.  After March 14, probably very-very limited to hazardous winter only - if that, or maybe a flooding rain threat in summer, but potentially nil. Certainly no severe's as last summer (had too many svr threads anyway). The plan is for me to get back to some part time work March 15.  Enjoyment of family-activities, property landscaping, late summer travel will preclude me from initiating threads. Just too much for me to maintain a close eye upon ea thread, as well as wrap-ups.I feel obligated once Initiated, that I need to stay on top of them (helps keep me more conservative). Just can't do that once am back working.  So... have had plenty of top contributions in the forum that have helped me look at new approaches and for the most part, the long lead threads have been of value. After March 14, probably hands off for me.  Been fun to be a witness to the utility of large scale modeling predictability. We're sooooo far ahead of where we were, even a decade or two ago.  

Enjoy your time away Walt!  Hopefully we get some historic heat in July and have a super heatwave (three straight days of over 100) which brings you back for a bit!

 

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15 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Well, thanks for a great winter.  Just curious, is your PT work wx-related or non-wx/other?

Snowcover is down to a trace here, but it's a significant trace and the sunglasses still help a lot with reflection off of the remaining snow.   There is still 2" at the stake and more in a lot of places, but can't in good conscience call it more than a trace with less than 50% coverage in total.  The sun always wins.

High temp here has been 32.0 and it's backed off a little, but I think temperature maxes in bright sun at this time of year can easily occur towards 5pm.

PT is not weather related> I work for Sussex County NJ as a part time engineering aide, as long as they'll have me. Guardrail,  (now called Guide Rail), and bridge inspections, sometimes a bit of surveying. Have a tablet, walk the roads and bridges and do as asked-taught, much of it on my own. Fortunate to have a PT job like this. I like the outdoors and get's me more familiar with the county i grew up in. 

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