ineedsnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z EPS bumped back north too. Advisory type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 34/52 have accumulating snow for me. Even a 2 to 4 would be nice I think you have a decent shot at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not feeling it, dude. We missed the boat IMO. Next week is our shot to hop aboard, but if next week goes awry, which is more likely than not, then I would hope to approach climo at best. I get it man and with lots of doody diapers to shuffle through...a man just needs a little winter action to ease the mind. We have a long way to go though. Hang in there champ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 34/52 have accumulating snow for me. Even a 2 to 4 would be nice I think you are looking pretty good down there...and esp over to SW CT. Getting more confident they see something shovel-able. I'd like to see one more solid bump north for the pike region. We still have plenty of time and as we've seen so far with the model guidance, only small shifts in the orientation of PV lobes and blocking up north has outsized effects on the sensible wx impact down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I think you are looking pretty good down there...and esp ove to SW CT. Getting more confident they see something shovel-able. I'd like to see one more solid bump north for the pike region. We still have plenty of time and as we've seen so far with the model guidance, only small shifts in the orientation of PV lobes and blocking up north has outsized effects on the sensible wx impact down here. My hopes, and probably even the pike region, ride on 1/29 to avoid one of the worst January months in history. I sit at 2" on the month....only worse years are 1962, 1969, 1980 (futility season), and 1992. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I hope I can get an inch or so here. Seems a stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My hopes, and probably even the pike region, ride on 1/29 to avoid one of the worst January months in history. That one looked like ka-ka last night after trending better during the day. Hopefully it comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1/29 seems to have spacing issues though, again. Right on the heels of 1/26, not sure if it has time to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That one looked like ka-ka last night after trending better during the day. Hopefully it comes back. I use the word "hope" loosely, as I am about 80% confident of failure on that, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 1/29 seems to have spacing issues though, again. Right on the heels of 1/26, not sure if it has time to dig. This is one of the reasons mod la nina seasons do not produce many big events for us. I know you aren't a fan of generalizing seasons based off of ENSO, but when you have one big second half in nearly 100 years of data, there are probably reasons why. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 just looked at models, geez..close the shades 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I use the word "hope" loosely, as I am about 80% confident of failure on that, too. There’s a lot of cape cod MA type prayers of hope occurring lately. I’ve been seen to take a kneel or two around the house myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 i might switch to the DIT school of forecasting = Persistence till proven wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 1/29 seems to have spacing issues though, again. Right on the heels of 1/26, not sure if it has time to dig. Bigger issue on 1/29 is the block up north...it tries to retrograde a PV lobe enough to prevent it from amplifying. It actually looks pretty good out west on several different runs before it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Bigger issue on 1/29 is the block up north...it tries to retrograde a PV lobe enough to prevent it from amplifying. It actually looks pretty good out west on several different runs before it approaches. Best western look we have had in weeks, which is why I was originally hopeful for that one, but the busy N stream and the Pac kicker displacing the ridge east are killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is one of the reasons mod la nina seasons do not produce many big events for us. I know you aren't a fan of generalizing seasons based off of ENSO, but when you have one big second half in nearly 100 years of data, there are probably reasons why. Good point. I’m not the student as you are so I’m not denying the validity of enso but I do think now, more then ever, seasons can deviate from traditional enso behaviors. I’ll defer to you on this though and continue to hope something big pops...even if it happens by cuddling up with a rabbits foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Raise your hand if you are ready to ditch the damn block and take chances with precip type.......(raises hand) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Bigger issue on 1/29 is the block up north...it tries to retrograde a PV lobe enough to prevent it from amplifying. It actually looks pretty good out west on several different runs before it approaches. That’s been porking us all month. Every shortwave approaching the EC just gets lobed OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Raise your hand if you are ready to ditch the damn block and take chances with precip type.......(raises hand) I raised everything 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Good point. I’m not the student as you are so I’m not denying the validity of enso but I do think now, more then ever, seasons can deviate from traditional enso behaviors. I’ll defer to you on this though and continue to hope something big pops...even if it happens by cuddling up with a rabbits foot. Absolutely, but as I have mentioned, the problem is that the vehicle for said deviation constructively interferes, not deconstructively, as it does with positive ENSO. If anyone cares to explain why a faster flow and displaced Hadley Cell will resolve the issues that are inherent of second half la nina seasons, then I'm all ears....and I'm not being a sarcastic dick, as is usually the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I think the ceiling for this “event” is pretty low east of the CT/RI border and north of of the mass pike. I would be shocked if this broke right if we even got more than 3-4” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think the ceiling for this “event” is pretty low east of the CT/RI border and north of of the mass pike. I would be shocked if this broke right if we even got more than 3-4” here. Yea, I think Luke has an outside shot at a low-end warning event, but my ceiling is like 2". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think the ceiling for this “event” is pretty low east of the CT/RI border and north of of the mass pike. I would be shocked if this broke right if we even got more than 3-4” here. 3-4" would feel like a KU at this point. After 1/26, it looks like our next shot at anything waits until the first week of Feb...or even later? I'm told that northern stream dominant patterns can break right with very little notice though, so maybe something good pops with only 72-96 hours notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Raise your hand if you are ready to ditch the damn block and take chances with precip type.......(raises hand) I raise all 3 of my hands. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 I honestly hope it works out down there...I really am past being bitter over a few inches of snow. Get 12", while I smoke cirrus, and I'll want to rip your heart out....but with this, we're good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Can't wait for Cantore to be on the Outer Banks next week. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I raise all 3 of my hands. What you thinking for NE CT? D-1” seems possible I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What you thinking for NE CT? D-1” seems possible I guess Sure. Start high...can always adjust down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What you thinking for NE CT? D-1” seems possible I guess You can do better than that...I'm pretty optimistic for like you and Steve points sw. I should get a First Call out tmw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can do better than that...I'm pretty optimistic for like you and Steve points sw. Time to cover up the doggie doo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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