tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GEFS is an absolutely stellar look at 500....just wanted to say that again. Agree. Just hope it’s got a leg up in figuring out where we go down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 MJO looks a lot better today on most modeling. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: MJO looks a lot better today on most modeling. This and the cold being on the wrong side of the globe are worries for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Trough is going trough East China,Yelllow Sea and even possibly into South Korea the next couple days,we should have a system if everything teleconnects around the 19th.EPS even hints at this in the long range 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: This and the cold being on the wrong side of the globe are worries for me. I think the cold looks to be working to this side of the hemisphere by later this month....looks like it dumps west first. Question is, "How far will it spread eastward?" During cold La Nina winters the cold spreads from the Rockies SE to the TN Valley area. Some years it doesn't get that push. With the SSW occurring now every two weeks or so, modeling is going to be all over the place. Pretty clear signal that the trough will retrograde into the west around the 23-25th. Again, does it spread eastward and undercut the ridge at 500. Until then, I think we have a couple of very chilly weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 18z GEFS looks less appealing. The GEFS extended, which runs once per day, looks very good even if the 500 pattern gets sketch after Jan 30th. Cold at the surface undercuts the ridge in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The -NAO is going to battle a very bad Pacific set-up after the 25th it appears. Again, let's see how this plays out....lots of time between then and now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 All the long range models shows the heights rising in east Asia.Some hints at a even +nao and -pna,but it is to early to tell and the MJO looks to me will get into the MARITIME but the signal isnt as strong as it has been.The ensembles tho have a sIgnificant amount of spread with them,JMHO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Not a bad looking snow mean for the entire forum on the 12z GEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Not a bad looking snow mean for the entire forum on the 12z GEFSIs that a 360 hr mean?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Is that a 360 hr mean? . Yeah..day 8/10 timeframe keeps popping up on various members last few runs. 18z GEFS had more variability among the members for that time roughly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 12z CMC had something as well during that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Considering it's 7 days out...fairly decent agreement at 500 with placement between GFS/CMC at 12/18z..Euro may be hanging the energy back in the SW..just something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 0z GFS still had the energy, just shoved it to Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 30 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 0z GFS still had the energy, just shoved it to Cuba It's been bad for that this year. It had the storm hitting Miss/Lousiana right now down toward the Yucatan at one point. It had the big west Texas/Oklahoma storm going East of the Apps for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's been bad for that this year. It had the storm hitting Miss/Lousiana right now down toward the Yucatan at one point. It had the big west Texas/Oklahoma storm going East of the Apps for a while. 0z GEFS doesn't agree with it..LA/C MS accum is from tonight..rest is the system during that time from..nice 2" mean back thru AL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I think the new GFS Para had a good hit for TN on it's last run but it doesn't run as the much as the regular GFS. And yes the GFS has been all over the place this year with storms. Not good at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Interesting pattern on the Ensembles in the long range: EPS: GEFS: GEPS: At first glance it doesn't look that great. Central Pac ridge and the main trough over the Pacific NW. But here are the things that make it interesting to me. 1) Always good to have something that doesn't look too great at day 10+. Guaranteed changes and that has seemed especially true this year. The danger in this one, is that there could end up being more SE ridge and that would herald the TN Valley's patented "Frikin' Floodin' February" 2) NAO is keeping that SE ridge at bay. This is a smoothed mean of a dynamically moving atmosphere and that block could verify stronger or in a diff location. Obviously the danger is that it verifies more east based, or links up with a SE ridge 3) The last time we had a positive result from a SSW, it took a month (mid Feb - March 2018). The UK got the fabled (and much canvased on wxtwitter) "Beast from the East" in a couple of weeks though and seeing the trougihng over the UK on the ensembles makes me wonder and, if Im honest, hope, that we still haven't seen all the fallout from the SSW (major or not) as it's effects percolate down through the atmosphere. Speaking of the strat, looks like the Euro and GFS want to reconsolidate it at 10mb in their long range, but lower down, all the residues of the SSW have to go somewhere and are still oozing down: GEFS Euro (EPS isn't available to me): MJO looks CODish, in real time. A little bit of convection in a lot of places n. of the equator, but schmaybe favoring the eastern Indian Ocean As Carver's has pointed out the RMM diagrams are looking better. The Euro, for example, wants to skip the warmer phases altogether and just run back to the western Pac. GEFS does have some members that want to do the warm tour, but others members just look lost: TL;DR. It will be interesting to see what all this evolves to come verification time. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Some pretty good analogs at 500mb showing up on the EPS today. It's forecasting a -EPO in the offing too. We have a -PNA but when the EPO is right that isn't a huge deal, it just means the trough is likely oriented NW to SE or something close to that. In 2014 we had a big Valentines day snow event with a -PNA of about 1.1. In the long range at 500 the EPS has a very similar look to Jan 9th-11th 2011. There was a very snowy period for about 10 days with a nice overrunning event right there around the 10th. It snowed multiple days in a row here during that time frame and we had below 0 cold here on the Plateau with highs in the upper 10s and lower 20s. Even Knoxville had nearly 5 inches of snow on the 10th with only .3ish qpf. That also had a -PNA but a nice -EPO/-NAO combination. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 46 minutes ago, John1122 said: Some pretty good analogs at 500mb showing up on the EPS today. It's forecasting a -EPO in the offing too. We have a -PNA but when the EPO is right that isn't a huge deal, it just means the trough is likely oriented NW to SE or something close to that. In 2014 we had a big Valentines day snow event with a -PNA of about 1.1. In the long range at 500 the EPS has a very similar look to Jan 9th-11th 2011. There was a very snowy period for about 10 days with a nice overrunning event right there around the 10th. It snowed multiple days in a row here during that time frame and we had below 0 cold here on the Plateau with highs in the upper 10s and lower 20s. Even Knoxville had nearly 5 inches of snow on the 10th with only .3ish qpf. That also had a -PNA but a nice -EPO/-NAO combination. Good post. Going on back, Jan../ Feb. 1979 had similar periods that produced abundant snows in the forum area. Btw, saw where CPC has our area above avg. Temps and precip in the 8 to 14 day. The map shows a linear above norm. 40° South, avg to below 40° N. I forget which model was showing that in extended yesterday . But, they went with it like they did in December when Christmas period was projected to be mild. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 39 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Good post. Going on back, Jan../ Feb. 1979 had similar periods that produced abundant snows in the forum area. Btw, saw where CPC has our area above avg. Temps and precip in the 8 to 14 day. The map shows a linear above norm. 40° South, avg to below 40° N. I forget which model was showing that in extended yesterday . But, they went with it like they did in December when Christmas period was projected to be mild. . I wouldn't be surprised to have some AN out there but it looks to be transitional. Those forecasts usually center on D11. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 The 0z ICON has a perfect southern slider that is really nice for Western areas especially but gets the whole state basically. The GFS has multiple 1-2+ inch events over the next week or so and it really hammers elevated areas in the East with big time upslope. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 been watching this period for a few days now and the 06z GFS is starting to look very interesting for the 140-170 timeframe. Classic time for a storm as we shake up our pattern on the heels of a large frontal cold shot. This potential slides in just a couple days after much of the Eastern US is plunged into a pretty cool period. Could be a classic setup for the Southeast/Tennessee valley. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Nice graphics, fellow '97er. Those images are NSFW for my snow weenie. Same here having 3 very similar big dog members this far out is pretty bullish. Great signal for cold and a low pressure to our south. That’s all we can ask for at this stage. 12z may get interesting if we get some OP support. Gfs is suppressed and that’s exactly where we want it in this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 12z GFS and CMC definitely support potential and fountain's post above. Lost of energy ducking under our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Basically just an issue of missing a phase at 7 days out....highly doubt the timing is down on that. Door is open around the 19th it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Basically just an issue of missing a phase at 7 days out....highly doubt the timing is down on that. Door is open around the 19th it appears. yeah there is a LOT of energy flying around during this time. Highly likely this is one of those systems that could just kind of show a weak signal then pop up randomly around 120hrs. Usually these highly volatile patterns are modeled poorly outside 120-130. and even inside. 12z GEFS isnt quite as bullish but still plenty of signal. Wouldn't mind seeing sporadic Euro/EPS support over the next few days. But I'd say atleast 36-48 hrs before we know if this is legit or not. Maybe even longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 UK almost drops a classic Miller A here. Looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: yeah there is a LOT of energy flying around during this time. Highly likely this is one of those systems that could just kind of show a weak signal then pop up randomly around 120hrs. Usually these highly volatile patterns are modeled poorly outside 120-130. and even inside. 12z GEFS isnt quite as bullish but still plenty of signal. Wouldn't mind seeing sporadic Euro/EPS support over the next few days. But I'd say atleast 36-48 hrs before we know if this is legit or not. Maybe even longer. I'm pulling for this timeframe to produce. Looks like it has potential. Biggest inhibitor would be the hyper-active northern stream shearing out the southern stream, again. Hope we can get enough separation between vorts in the northern stream to let the southern stream amplify or hold together as a weaker system with plentiful moisture. It's likely way too much to ask a lone northern stream piece to dive into the backside of our southern stream at just the right spot. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 It has been my observation that when a bunch of weak systems are running around, models tend to miss phases/partial phases at the 6-7 day range. Wouldn't be surprised to see a model grab one of those pieces of energy, and spin it up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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