PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 That shows the same snow hole that has been on multiple model runs, likely terrain induced. Amazing how models can seemingly account for that.Downsloping it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I remember that one well. Several inches throughout Lee County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Wasn't the November 12th one last year an anafrontal wave that dumped several inches throughout the area ? I remember models had this area as the rather low end forecasted amounts and Claiborne and Lee recorded the most. 4 to 7". Although, that one didn't have any substantial Downsloping winds though so, probably why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18z Euro pops the leeside low a touch further south than 12z. 999 mb just south or Roanoke, near the NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The big difference that I see (and it isn't necessarily a deal breaker) is that the anafrontal system from last Dec. had a more SW - NE orientation and this one is more meridional. Last year's: (Bolded in case it messes with anyone to see this map, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z Euro pops the leeside low a touch further south than 12z. 999 mb just south or Roanoke, near the NC border. That looks about like middle ground right now...north end = WV, south end = NC/GA/SC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, TellicoWx said: That looks about like middle ground right now...north end = WV, south end = NC/GA/SC border Need that South end for optimal production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Clinch Mountain the Fun Killer. Considering this one is approaching at another angle it's unlikely we get a repeat per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 0z NAM starts off with a twist...forms Low over AL...runs it up the eastern valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 NAM dug the trough more at H5..and generated the low...an outlier right now, but with the continued snow showers behind it, think the precip shield/totals would be a little higher in that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 We are about to start the comeback phase before the inside 24 hours collapse round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I'm not sure if this is mix, sleet, zr or just extremely heavy snow in the red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Ratio'd map is better for some and worse for some. It does have the Hancock/Hawkins snowhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, John1122 said: Ratio'd map is better for some and worse for some. It does have the Hancock/Hawkins snowhole. I'll take that heavy dusting on Christmas morning, thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The NAM still cleans things out pretty fast. The RGEM at 18z had lingering snow showers over middle and eastern areas to the end it's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: The NAM still cleans things out pretty fast. The RGEM at 18z had lingering snow showers over middle and eastern areas to the end it's run. 0z RGEM digging the trough a little more as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 0z RGEM popping the low over Sevier Co...gonna be a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, TellicoWx said: 0z RGEM I could live with that. Just give me some mood flakes and I’m good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: We'll see where it goes. Usually the GFS follows the 0z NAM at 12z the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Goofy trying to dig a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Pops low NC/VA/TN line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 It basically bounced back to its runs leading up to today. Still progressive in getting everything out early. It may be missing some upslope and general snow showers that arctic air squeezes out. Still a good run for the east half of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 0z GFS nice trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Carvers Gap said: 0z GFS nice trends. Yeah, good trends on all the OP's so far..3/3 on digging trough more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Goal posts are narrowing on where to pop the low...with 18z Euro close to where 0z GFS did. NAM may be doing it's thing of over amping too soon with the AL solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 0z GEFs already pulling the 2" mean back into NW AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Purple back on the GEFS, maybe best run of it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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