jbenedet Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Sometimes you almost just have to go with history on these things if you look at the EPS/NAM solution it would indicate New York City goes snow-rain-snow. When have we ever seen a storm with this type of set up do that in New York City? Either they stay all snow or they go snow to rain and stay rain and does anyone think that this could stay far enough west where they flipped to rain and that’s it? I just don’t see it given the pattern so I’m leaning in the direction of something splitting the difference of the GEFS EPS. I feel confident both models are too far west and east respectively Right now NYC/LI is my “highest confidence area for a significant snowfall”. Right now looks like an all snow event down there to me. Very cold dews should make that attainable... and the mid levels are never an issue with this given the synoptic development....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Gfs isn't caving this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Right now NYC/LI looks is my “highest confidence area for a significant snowfall”. Right now looks like an all snow event down there to me. Very cold dews should make that attainable... and the mid levels are never an issue with this given the synoptic development....... Does any model miss SEPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS is sharper on trough. It should come tucked in a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This run should be tucked some, Trough sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: This run should be tucked some, Trough sharper. Stronger southern s/w too. We tucky tucky some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: GFS is sharper on trough. It should come tucked in a bit more Yup. Sharper. Then it Depends on what crazyness it does as it gets off the NJ coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Stronger southern s/w too. We tucky tucky some It is, End result may not be all that different though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup. Sharper. Then it Depends on what crazyness it does as it gets off the NJ coast. certainly seems to be bookin' it, and slightly east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup. Sharper. Then it Depends on what crazyness it does as it gets off the NJ coast. Well that's the thing, isn't it...it doesn't exit off the NJ coast on the GFS. It exists off the outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Gfs is even further south than 6z. Great spot for our area but I'm more worried about a whiff given the blocking up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowEMass said: certainly seems to be bookin' it, and slightly east? It's still no bueno compared to Euro/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This run is shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It craps itself and kicks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: It tucks, but does it come north. That's the question. doing some weird s*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ooph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It tucks, but does it come north. That's the question. Nope, Ends up chasing that convective blob east in the atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Still scoots of East but it made a move in the right direction IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Still scoots of East but it made a move in the right direction IMO. tucks in and then catapults out? hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Still scoots of East but it made a move in the right direction IMO. Yea, positive steps up until it gets off the coast then it does what it usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, positive steps up until it gets off the coast then it does what it usually does. Develops a second low due east of the slp along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ugh. That would make for some tortuous radar hallucinations in much of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Still scoots of East but it made a move in the right direction IMO. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah. I mean I'm not worried about it given its outlier status, but who cares if it tucks off Ocean City if it's just going to slide east? It needs to bring the goods north. I had made an edit, It looks to chase convection east of the slp thats tucked in close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 To be fair...we dont know if the NAM would have done the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Thanks fellas. Is it over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Develops a second low due east of the slp along the coast. Chasing convection like a bad poker player chasing gut shot straight draws? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, JC-CT said: To be fair...we dont know if the NAM would have done the same Would need a couple more panels to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: LOL due east. Yeah...it actually moved almost due north from 84 to 90 and at 90 had the slp almost identical to the 12z NAM at 84. Then, that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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