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Wet snow Monday Dec 14, 2020?

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12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

3k NAM is pretty close to a decent hit. Toasty, yes but still. 

Real close.  NAM for LGA shows about 37/30 37/29 when precip arrives.  I still think its just a hair too warm.  Would need to see those DPs be more in the lower 20s.  There is no question the arrival time of the event mid to late morning which allows for clear skies the night before and prevention of any heating during the ensuing day helps

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

ICON going bonkers on Monday. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18.png

 

If that came to fruition I would not want to be in places like interior MA/North of SWF/NW CT for Wednesday.  The stronger Monday is more likelihood Wed could be mostly a NYC south event

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

If that came to fruition I would not want to be in places like interior MA/North of SWF/NW CT for Wednesday.  The stronger Monday is more likelihood Wed could be mostly a NYC south event

Yeah, I'm not digging that.

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not much to stop the Mon event from keeping trending north. We’ll see what happens I guess. 

Cold air and confluence is pressing here, storm will scoot south of us...storm can trend stronger, but with orientation of trough and pressing cold, can’t get too much more north (a la NAM that squashes it)

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Just now, Zelocita Weather said:

Cold air and confluence is pressing here, storm will scoot south of us...along with a cold high in optimal spot (just north of Canadian border)

It's still quite warm. 34-35 surface and just below freezing 850

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6 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Cold air and confluence is pressing here, storm will scoot south of us...storm can trend stronger, but with orientation of trough and pressing cold, can’t get too much more north (a la NAM that squashes it)

If we’re talking Monday that confluence isn’t in place yet and I don’t see much to stop it from being more of an inland event. Temps are also marginal so this would be a quick few inch or so hit of snow where it’s cold enough. But yes hopefully it can help suppress the flow enough for Wednesday. 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Still skeptical of this one due to antecedant airmass, changeover to any accumulating snow would be dependent on heavy rates.   

I don’t buy anyone getting 6” from it, to me maybe it’s a lucky 3-5” where banding can set up. 

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49 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Interesting Euro was first model to amp this up and now backed off but not that surprised either. 

Its 06Z run started the trend.  I would have to see the ensembles but this is the sort of system in this pattern I feel might juice more than Euro shows

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