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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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also to add to above, the GFSs late handoff would present thermal issues into same areas that saw them today, as lover levels would warm while waiting for secondary to pop.  The "others" would not present that worry as SLP stay under and East saving our precious thermals.   

gfs_T850_us_24.png

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14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

the transfer on the GFS looks much less appealing when one looks at the ICON/Euro and even CMC.

In my mind, GFS oozes dryslot w/ spacing issues it shows.  That's all I'm getting at.  The "others" just look more clean and consolidated (even though a bit wonky and strung out).  In my eyes its the GFS holding the primary longer that makes it look less appetizing.  Plenty more runs to decipher, but hey....we're trackin.

We gotta get the WAA precip with the primary to us and then get the transfer going, basically what the GFS does on the front end but get a transfer positioned like the Canadian. The Euro evolution drops it under us when it transfers to the secondary all the way in GA/SC. I mean yea it does catch the LSV below the turnpike pretty good in the end but I'm def not rooting for forum splitters.

Early looks of the Euro ensemble looked good, there's several big PA hits in it. 

3 day total snowfall:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-snow_72hr-2288800.thumb.png.875bfb0ae6cad3be5252f5552555cb93.png

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36 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Im no Mag, but yes.  GFS was ugly and strung out.  Euro was nice transfer (earlier than prior runs), and then pops and stalls off VA coast.  

We need the GFS to weaken primary in upcoming runs and go to the ICON/Euro looks.  Not sure where i'd place money right now, but I know where i wanna....

Thanks Nut. 

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23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Euro primary's on a trajectory notably south of the GFS and definitely slower. It gets secondary going all the way down in GA/SC that arcs up to VA Beach. Energy phases and it hangs the low right around there before fading out. The low's in an okay spot for us where it hangs but the way it get's there probably limits precip extent into our neck of the woods. 

The GFS isn't really that bad, it was pretty close but a bit late on the secondary and the primary comes across the country higher. Canadian tracks more similar to the Euro but like mentioned  above the Euro has the secondary going the whole way from the SE while Canadian transfers a weaker low from the Oh Valley to the Delmarva. The Euro basically just put up the ideal way to bury DC/Northern VA with it's 12z op run. 

Thanks Mag. 

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8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

We gotta get the WAA precip with the primary to us and then get the transfer going, basically what the GFS does on the front end but get a transfer positioned like the Canadian. The Euro evolution drops it under us when it transfers to the secondary all the way in GA/SC. I mean yea it does catch the LSV below the turnpike pretty good in the end but I'm def not rooting for forum splitters.

Early looks of the Euro ensemble looked good, there's several big PA hits in it. 

3 day total snowfall:

 

12z Euro transferred earlier which helped greatly IMO.  EPS control is just NSFW (compared to what we've been seeing of late).  

Takeaways are we've got ducks on the friggin pond again....and a big honkin goose as well.  Who's gonna cave?  I think Mag nailed it when you look at 500's and ridging out west.  it makes a big difference here in the east and todays runs are starting to see that.  Chips slide to the foreign/Northern models.  

 

Onto happy hour.

 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

12z Euro transferred earlier which helped greatly IMO.  EPS control is just NSFW (compared to what we've been seeing of late).  

Takeaways are we've got ducks on the friggin pond again....and a big honkin goose as well.  Who's gonna cave?  I think Mag nailed it when you look at 500's and ridging out west.  it makes a big difference here in the east and todays runs are starting to see that.  Chips slide to the foreign/Northern models.  

 

Onto happy hour.

 

Cheers! Good 12z runs. Let's get HH to follow. 

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I haven’t been outside all day but I figured the driveway was just some slush to push off. Nope.. what a mess. Another winter day at the ice kingdom. Temps are still near freezing.

3E029EC1-7F6A-4515-BB21-5E5511AB0E21.thumb.jpeg.4df9335d46dc5d83cf304151cf22b4ef.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I haven’t been outside all day but I figured the driveway was just some slush to push off. Nope.. what a mess. Another winter day at the ice kingdom. Temps are still near freezing.

3E029EC1-7F6A-4515-BB21-5E5511AB0E21.thumb.jpeg.4df9335d46dc5d83cf304151cf22b4ef.jpeg

Thats what i was hoping we'd get for this "event".  Got ice skates??

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BTW, verbatim the Euro shows the LSV snowing basically from 144- 178 (spitballing 6hr panels).  

Even if that only amounts to a shovelable snowfall.....I'm down w/ that.  

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Mag I thought it was going to just be some loose sleet. Have 1/2" of solid ice. 32 degrees here.

Euro is something to watch...alot of runs to come. :popcorn:

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Eastern PA bullseye of over 1' in some areas. Heads up, @Voyager

Eastern PA is close to 2'.  But, MDT gets 16" and YOU get 18-20" while I get only 8"...lol.  The map is very weird with distribution. But, you also missed 25" in central Lebanon County.

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15 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said:

Well.. happy hour GFS definitely on board with the capture & stall/prolonged event idea.


.

Nice tick in the right direction and a couple moves away from a whopper. Primary dies a bit quicker death and once secondary pops it comes up and stalls then crawls up and out. Verbatim it also shows a prolonged event with approx around 48 hrs of snow.  

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Eastern PA is close to 2'.  But, MDT gets 16" and YOU get 18-20" while I get only 8"...lol.  The map is very weird with distribution.

You are correct - I downplayed it a bit not to cause undo excitement amongst us weenies. :) 

It's going to be an interesting several days upcoming for sure. 

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4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Eastern PA is close to 2'.  But, MDT gets 16" and YOU get 18-20" while I get only 8"...lol.  The map is very weird with distribution.

Wow. I didn’t look at color maps. Just 500s and surface. 
Good to see it coming in line. This might actually happen. 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Wow. I didn’t look at color maps. Just 500s and surface. 
Good to see it coming in line. This might actually happen. 

Here is that colorful snow map from the 18z GFS! CTP bullseye!

The Euro is right where we want it at this range.

Here we go again... maybe this is the one?!?

 

44D83F53-DBDE-4BB3-85E2-A1DC53BC28D9.png

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wow talk about a prolong event: well here is the forecast for Yosemite Ca.  Only in our wildest dreams for here. In just one night, they get more than our entire two seasons worth

 

Tonight
Snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to near 15 by 8pm, then rising to around 20 during the remainder of the night. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 29 to 35 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. South southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.
Friday
Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. West southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

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19 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

wow talk about a prolong event: well here is the forecast for Yosemite Ca.  Only in our wildest dreams for here. In just one night, they get more than our entire two seasons worth

 

Tonight
Snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to near 15 by 8pm, then rising to around 20 during the remainder of the night. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 29 to 35 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. South southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.
Friday
Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. West southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

Haha.  That total forecast comes to a range of 112-144" in less than 72 hours!

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The 18z EPS has a great look for the early week snow chance. The end of the 144 hour run has a great cluster of lows off of the coast of NC up towards the DelMarVa. The High is anchored over Quebec.

There look to be a range from inland runners, coastal huggers to some off of the coast. This look should only improve as the few eastern outliers are reduced as the event nears.
I really like where we are sitting for this event. Only 5 days to go until the storm gets underway in our region.

Maybe this is the one?!?!

D7A0E606-2C0A-42D3-A2F3-2E7D481B199A.png

8ADE9586-E07A-4C79-B16B-DB70711D1BC0.png

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18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z EPS has a great look for the early week snow chance. The end of the 144 hour run has a great cluster of lows off of the coast of NC up towards the DelMarVa. The High is anchored over Quebec.

There look to be a range from inland runners, coastal huggers to some off of the coast. This look should only improve as the few eastern outliers are reduced as the event nears.
I really like where we are sitting for this event. Only 5 days to go until the storm gets underway in our region.

Maybe this is the one?!?!

D7A0E606-2C0A-42D3-A2F3-2E7D481B199A.png

8ADE9586-E07A-4C79-B16B-DB70711D1BC0.png

Nice post. That low cluster to the western side still would be great for many inland and ok here in LSV although more taint possible. Cluster just off the Chesapeake bay seams reasonable  given spread shown. 

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3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I like Tom but this is bad information.

That's a possible outcome, but to give particulars 5 days out is ballsy. Better to say "there's a chance of a significant winter storm" and start adding precip types in the next few days and potential amounts starting 24-48 hours out. 

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