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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

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Op guidance is really starting to show hints at the surface of the implications of finally having arctic air in our source regions, the 50/50 low in place, and waves riding the gradient line from SW to ENE next week very close or just S of our latitude. Looks like a potentially long duration or 2 (3?) part wave train overunning the cold dome at the surface. Some areas are going to be in for quite the mess next week. Very similar look in some regards to 1994 icing. Maybe not same exact areas but wave hanging off coast and wave in OV with CAD in-between followed up by reoccurring waves. I am NOT currently calling for a repeat of a 94 ice storm at the moment, but interior especially could be in line for some copious amounts of mixed precip. Complicated and I'm not sure we do complicated very successfully. Become clearer tho that a wintry mess is becoming a legit tracking event now.

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The 28th system is really starting to get its act together on guidance as well. PNA ridge briefly amplifies allowing a NS vort to amplify under the block. Fun tracking times are upon us.

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32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The 28th system is really starting to get its act together on guidance as well. PNA ridge briefly amplifies allowing a NS vort to amplify under the block. Fun tracking times are upon us.

The block is really starting to assert itself on guidance. Today's GFS para an example of what could go wrong leaving us northern folk smoking cirrus and flurries.

 

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Some places may see a coating to an inch tomorrow morning in se pa and central jersey if the RGEM is correct. 06z Euro had it too but not as robust. Maybe a little surprise snow? 

 

As for next week, I feel like it's going to be a big mess..obviously still time for things to change but that is a pretty big ice signal at this range. We're still walking a pretty fine line with temps though.. hopefully the blocking and 50/50 pull through and we are just cold enough. 

 

I know people are tired of kicking the can down the line but the 28-29th storm looks even better for us. NAO/AO on the rise plus possibly the PNA popping slightly positive around that time frame. Lots of signals for a big east coast storm but obviously what happens with the 26th will effect that.

 

Hard to imagine a complete shutout in the next 10 days, we should see some accumulating snow though how much is still very much in the air. Theres also hints that Feb may not be the disaster it typically is in Nina's. 

 

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23 minutes ago, Newman said:

Strong block... RIC to DCA pattern? Hopefully not. I think we will score between the 25th and 30th. We'll have two chances

Getting a bit ahead but if my memory of this type of pattern progression is correct, should be at 'least' one more trackable threat first week of Feb. Historically in a Nina, this pattern breaks down soon thereafter but there are currently conflicting signals due to another episode of wind reversal in the SPV which could keep NAO blocking around longer suppressing the SER which generally flexes during a Nina in most Febs past.

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2 hours ago, Newman said:

Strong block... RIC to DCA pattern? Hopefully not. I think we will score between the 25th and 30th. We'll have two chances

Well, suppression is the bigger concern for next week if we are going to fail. At that point Imma just throw my hands up and question why I enjoy this hobby lol. But I dont think there is cause for alarm yet. We are over 160 hrs out for wave 1 and we have literally run the gamut of solutions today alone. And wave 1 dictates the baroclinic boundary for the followup waves. So just need to keep watching for any trends. The ens means are on board and imo that along with the pattern supporting wintry threats here are what is important attm....not how an ops model bounces around like a jumping bean from one run to the next.

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0z summary 

GFS lost in space with a low in the lakes

ECM even more squashed nary a flake in Qtown

ICON decent track but rain for all

Para GFS like the ICON but southern slider rainstorm

CMC euro clone

UKMET like the ICON 

 

This hobby is ridiculous

 

 

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EPS and GEPS respectable snow hits for Central and S parts of the PHL region early next week. GEFS ticked in our favor as well but still seems to be sniffing glue. 150 hrs to go. Plenty of time to trend either way. Strong signal on the ens means and a good spot to be attm. 

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32 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Junk moving in...let's see what happens.

31F

 

junk.jpg

according to that radar it should be snow/rain in my neck of the woods in Berks but nothing reaching the ground yet 

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