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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


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This H5 look at hour 102 is absolutely classic. If it can close off slightly sooner and/or farther south, I think just about everyone in this forum will be very happy. The deformation zone would be pretty sweet verbatim. 

I think it’s pretty clear the 18z GFS that caused weenie suicides was just a blip; the GEFS suite being east was a red flag. What’s encouraging is seeing the vort pass through sooner, which prevented higher heights from building in the Atlantic. This is key for allowing the system to take an offshore track rather than move too close to the coast, as well as not completely torching the mid-layers. Hopefully the Euro and it’s ensembles can follow suit. 


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1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

Lol. There will NOT be snow on the ground in dc for Xmas... at least not the remainder of weds storm. Perhaps another storm.

I think we should be careful in describing 6-12 “area wide”. I think the models are a trying to show some of the first red flags for 95 crew. By my count, there’s a considerable more amount of (almost) whiffs on the 18z eps. I think the amped NE hp and PNA might be coming back to earth a bit. I do not see us just “needed to 2 more degrees” for area wide 12”+. I think there’s a strong case that actually goes the other way actually.

We’ll see but my wag is 0Z euro holds course from 12z, with just a touch warmer at 850/925 and we all argue about the granularity of this revelation.

You can't rule anything out yet. Let's see what happens! 

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All the models I've seen today make this a close play for our section of I95. Absolutely on the margins. Shift east 30 miles and we bullseye, shift west by the same amount and we'll be lucky to get a couple of sloppy inches. My gut says that's bad news at gametime - I think maybe 1 in 5 like this break our way? 

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