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Windspeed

Tropical Storm Eta

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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Constant lightning going off in the eyewall. Recon may find a high end Category 4. Unless there is an ERC/structural change, Eta has our best shot of attaining Category 5 this year in the basin now. Happens now or try again next year I reckon.

17321d9868741a8236d21ec3d1a20993.gif&key=68d190e163d83c107c71042237b64d5e94cd66a4a8f0e1263f67fedbfda0154e

Does this storm have an unusually large stadium effect around a tiny eye?

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1 minute ago, Prospero said:

Looks like Puerto Cabezas is the town to take the brunt; pop. about 67,000. Not really a lot on that coast to the north or south. Hurricane Felix hit it is 2007 as a Cat 5 and left 100 dead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Felix

 

Definitely do not see any LIVE webcams anywhere on the coast.

 

yep, the mosquito coast is pretty empty - excellent tarpon fishing, but otherwise there's not much there other than swamps, snakes and crocodiles.

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Unsure if fill or just high debris from anvil spill over of that W eyewall. Also it may be continuing to contract into a pinhole. At any rate, it's horribly disappointing we don't have recon to verify what may be one of the fastest periods of intensification we've seen this late in the season.0308b9217015e8cbe3b3e9cb2c1cf9fc.gif&key=7eb5a9ea7d68c24a30457eda5ada076b691750ca62c061ece897f1c04ec24805

 

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One interesting trend I am seeing today is this is diving southward further east.  Not sure if it has any implications on future track (perhaps a pro met / knowledgeable poster can chime in)

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5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Recon AF305 has taken off and is en route.
c59fe9e14a705248b5ff48ff69525fc4.jpg

Unfortunately from MS and not Miami, where it could get down to the storm much quicker.

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19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I’d like to see this chart but only storms where we have in situ observations at both beginning and end. Because it seems to me this record keeps being broken by storms with estimated values at one end or the other. 

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As I said a few hours ago, lots of lightning can signal an ERC. This is a small eye. Look at the cloud tops outside the eye, see the secondary eye there? The guidance yesterday suggested an erc could happen. If an erc occurs, the storm will re-strengthen again. ERCs take several hours usually to complete. 

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23 minutes ago, Normandy said:

One interesting trend I am seeing today is this is diving southward further east.  Not sure if it has any implications on future track (perhaps a pro met / knowledgeable poster can chime in)

Some models have shown a south dive and stall, or even a lift back north a hair, before once again turning west into Central America.

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Seems likely that we missed peak intensity. Will still be interesting to see what recon shows but disappointing that we may never know the true extent of the rapid deepening. 

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4 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Seems likely that we missed peak intensity. Will still be interesting to see what recon shows but disappointing that we may never know the true extent of the rapid deepening. 

It isn't weakening

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1 minute ago, BYG Jacob said:

It isn't weakening

Tomer, who is frequently linked here from twitter and is well respected, also agrees that it may be past its peak so it’s not exactly a hot take that it has come down somewhat from where it was. 

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Just now, MUWX said:

Tomer, who is frequently linked here from twitter and is well respected, also agrees that it may be past its peak so it’s not exactly a hot take that it has come down somewhat from where it was. 

I don't care what Tomer thinks, it pretty clearly isn't weakening.

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Just now, BYG Jacob said:

I don't care what Tomer thinks, it pretty clearly isn't weakening.

There’s substantial evidence that the eye has cooled over the past couple of hours

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Just now, MUWX said:

There’s substantial evidence that the eye has cooled over the past couple of hours

As we all know, satellites are amazing at resolving such tiny eyes 

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

You've gotta be f'ing kidding me.  The recon plane just turned around and is heading back to the US.

"Sorry, you cannot be here now, we are doing super-secret s*** and nobody can know."

Just kidding....

;)

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5 hours ago, Moderately Unstable said:

You're right, but the storm has 24+ hours to go. They have 4 flights scheduled not all with the same division. There is a 0% chance of not having another plane in before landfall. I know what you mean in terms of hoping they don't have more tech issues--I am in the same camp. More just saying, it would be absolutely shocking if they didn't actually send another one in. Nhc would ask noaa hunters and air force to go at same time so that if one had an issue we still got the data.

 Chances seems substantially higher than 0% now. The issues with recon this year are beyond frustrating. 

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