MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Below freezing temps for many even on the coast as the storm leaves on the Euro. More amped on this run. Some snow as the storm leaves even to the coast. A lot of snow on this run for far interior and New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 34 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Winter isn’t over because of snow in October. We’re also forgetting really good winters where there was early snow and cold like in 2002 (granted that was an El Niño). Yeah if winter is over (it didn't even start yet!) it would be because of the major la nina we might have oncoming, and this event may just be a product of that rather than the cause of whatever winter we have. So rather than being the cause of a bad winter, it would just be a by product of the ENSO signal, along with other factors, just like a lousy winter would also be a product of those same factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Below freezing temps for many even on the coast as the storm leaves on the Euro. More amped on this run. Some snow as the storm leaves even to the coast. A lot of snow on this run for far interior and New England. How does this compare to Oct 2011? That had 3 inches in NYC 1.5 at JFK and 6 inches as close as the Bronx. This sounds more like a T for everyone outside of the far N/W where it could be 1-3"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cold on the Ukie This is after the precip ends October freezes have been few and far between for the urban areas (which includes Western Long Island) Was October 2011 our last one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Quicker phase on the 12z Euro. Plenty of heavy rain and wind ending as snow. Then a freeze as the 980s class low pulls away. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Chris, this might be a repeating pattern this winter lol (rain ending as snow) What are the accumulations looking like? I assume it would only be in the mtns and even there only around 1-3"? I dont get that 2" on Central Long Island, you dont buy that do you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Amazing how many big events there are on our around 10/29 -1991 retrograder 2011 snowstorm 2012 Sandy 2020 nor'easter/snow big rains 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Amazing how many big events there are on our around 10/29 -1991 retrograder 2011 snowstorm 2012 Sandy 2020 nor'easter/snow big rains We can add the 2008 elevation event to the list along with the TS Philippe absorption /phase in 2017. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=201710301800 Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service New York NY 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2017-10-30-northeast-storm-damaging-winds-flooding PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 745 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT NEW JERSEY ...ATLANTIC COUNTY... POMONA T 250 PM 10/28 ACY INTL AIPRORT ...BURLINGTON COUNTY... MOUNT HOLLY 0.1 245 PM 10/28 NWS OFFICE CROSSWICKS T 1048 AM 10/28 MOUNT LAUREL T 420 PM 10/28 ...HUNTERDON COUNTY... LEBANON 12.0 500 PM 10/28 950 FT CHERRYVILLE 5.0 400 PM 10/28 HIGH BRIDGE 2.4 130 PM 10/28 CLINTON 1.7 300 PM 10/28 FLEMINGTON T 825 AM 10/28 FLEMINGTON T 420 PM 10/28 ...MERCER COUNTY... HOPEWELL 2.5 425 PM 10/28 EAST WINDSOR T 1030 AM 10/28 EWING T 915 AM 10/28 HAMILTON SQUARE T 1032 AM 10/28 MERCERVILLE T 1052 AM 10/28 PRINCETON T 900 AM 10/28 ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... NEW BRUNSWICK 1.5 130 PM 10/28 EDISON 1.0 1130 AM 10/28 ...MORRIS COUNTY... MOUNT OLIVE 11.5 520 PM 10/28 AT 1000 FEET LONG VALLEY 8.0 420 PM 10/28 AT 1200 FEET FLANDERS 5.5 730 PM 10/28 LAKE HOPATCONG 3.0 730 PM 10/28 MOUNT OLIVE 3.0 130 PM 10/28 BUTLER T 730 PM 10/28 ...OCEAN COUNTY... TOMS RIVER T 100 PM 10/28 ...SOMERSET COUNTY... HILLSBOROUGH 1.2 130 PM 10/28 PEAPACK 1.0 1117 AM 10/28 BRIDGEWATER 0.3 130 PM 10/28 BEDMINSTER T 1045 AM 10/28 ...SUSSEX COUNTY... HIGH POINT STATE 14.0 400 PM 10/28 WANTAGE 4.5 420 PM 10/28 AT 1020 FEET BARRY LAKES 3.0 725 PM 10/28 NEWTON 2.5 730 PM 10/28 SPARTA 2.0 725 PM 10/28 UP TO 5 HIGHER TRRN LAFAYETTE 0.5 130 PM 10/28 ...WARREN COUNTY... HACKETTSTOWN 4.8 420 PM 10/28 HACKETTSTOWN 4.0 645 PM 10/28 ALLAMUCHY 3.0 1105 AM 10/28 BLAIRSTOWN 0.5 730 PM 10/28 STEWARTSVILLE T 420 PM 10/28 PENNSYLVANIA ...BUCKS COUNTY... JAMISON 3.0 230 PM 10/28 CHALFONT 2.0 400 PM 10/28 FAIRLESS HILLS 1.5 736 PM 10/28 FURLONG 1.2 230 PM 10/28 DOYLESTOWN 1.0 130 PM 10/28 LANGHORNE 0.8 230 PM 10/28 BENSALEM 0.5 230 PM 10/28 LEVITTOWN T 1040 AM 10/28 SPRINGTOWN T 720 AM 10/28 ...CARBON COUNTY... ALBRIGHTSVILLE 6.0 1115 AM 10/28 ELEV. AROUND 1700 FEET JIM THORPE T 700 AM 10/28 PALMERTON T 700 AM 10/28 ...MONROE COUNTY... TOBYHANNA 16.0 700 PM 10/28 POWER OUTAGES POCONO SUMMIT 4.5 1100 AM 10/28 ...MONTGOMERY COUNTY... MONTGOMERYVILLE 2.0 420 PM 10/28 SOUDERTON 1.5 1140 AM 10/28 WILLOW GROVE T 700 AM 10/28 ...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY... PHILADELPHIA T 1124 AM 10/28 N 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: We can add the 2008 elevation event to the list along with the TS Philippe absorption /phase in 2017. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=201710301800 Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service New York NY 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2017-10-30-northeast-storm-damaging-winds-flooding PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 745 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT NEW JERSEY ...ATLANTIC COUNTY... POMONA T 250 PM 10/28 ACY INTL AIPRORT ...BURLINGTON COUNTY... MOUNT HOLLY 0.1 245 PM 10/28 NWS OFFICE CROSSWICKS T 1048 AM 10/28 MOUNT LAUREL T 420 PM 10/28 ...HUNTERDON COUNTY... LEBANON 12.0 500 PM 10/28 950 FT CHERRYVILLE 5.0 400 PM 10/28 HIGH BRIDGE 2.4 130 PM 10/28 CLINTON 1.7 300 PM 10/28 FLEMINGTON T 825 AM 10/28 FLEMINGTON T 420 PM 10/28 ...MERCER COUNTY... HOPEWELL 2.5 425 PM 10/28 EAST WINDSOR T 1030 AM 10/28 EWING T 915 AM 10/28 HAMILTON SQUARE T 1032 AM 10/28 MERCERVILLE T 1052 AM 10/28 PRINCETON T 900 AM 10/28 ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... NEW BRUNSWICK 1.5 130 PM 10/28 EDISON 1.0 1130 AM 10/28 ...MORRIS COUNTY... MOUNT OLIVE 11.5 520 PM 10/28 AT 1000 FEET LONG VALLEY 8.0 420 PM 10/28 AT 1200 FEET FLANDERS 5.5 730 PM 10/28 LAKE HOPATCONG 3.0 730 PM 10/28 MOUNT OLIVE 3.0 130 PM 10/28 BUTLER T 730 PM 10/28 ...OCEAN COUNTY... TOMS RIVER T 100 PM 10/28 ...SOMERSET COUNTY... HILLSBOROUGH 1.2 130 PM 10/28 PEAPACK 1.0 1117 AM 10/28 BRIDGEWATER 0.3 130 PM 10/28 BEDMINSTER T 1045 AM 10/28 ...SUSSEX COUNTY... HIGH POINT STATE 14.0 400 PM 10/28 WANTAGE 4.5 420 PM 10/28 AT 1020 FEET BARRY LAKES 3.0 725 PM 10/28 NEWTON 2.5 730 PM 10/28 SPARTA 2.0 725 PM 10/28 UP TO 5 HIGHER TRRN LAFAYETTE 0.5 130 PM 10/28 ...WARREN COUNTY... HACKETTSTOWN 4.8 420 PM 10/28 HACKETTSTOWN 4.0 645 PM 10/28 ALLAMUCHY 3.0 1105 AM 10/28 BLAIRSTOWN 0.5 730 PM 10/28 STEWARTSVILLE T 420 PM 10/28 PENNSYLVANIA ...BUCKS COUNTY... JAMISON 3.0 230 PM 10/28 CHALFONT 2.0 400 PM 10/28 FAIRLESS HILLS 1.5 736 PM 10/28 FURLONG 1.2 230 PM 10/28 DOYLESTOWN 1.0 130 PM 10/28 LANGHORNE 0.8 230 PM 10/28 BENSALEM 0.5 230 PM 10/28 LEVITTOWN T 1040 AM 10/28 SPRINGTOWN T 720 AM 10/28 ...CARBON COUNTY... ALBRIGHTSVILLE 6.0 1115 AM 10/28 ELEV. AROUND 1700 FEET JIM THORPE T 700 AM 10/28 PALMERTON T 700 AM 10/28 ...MONROE COUNTY... TOBYHANNA 16.0 700 PM 10/28 POWER OUTAGES POCONO SUMMIT 4.5 1100 AM 10/28 ...MONTGOMERY COUNTY... MONTGOMERYVILLE 2.0 420 PM 10/28 SOUDERTON 1.5 1140 AM 10/28 WILLOW GROVE T 700 AM 10/28 ...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY... PHILADELPHIA T 1124 AM 10/28 N i remember the euro beating the rest of the models with that system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 snow or no snow, we finally have something to track, and we could really use precipitation in whatever form it decides to take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: October freezes have been few and far between for the urban areas (which includes Western Long Island) Was October 2011 our last one? most recent OCT freezes: Newark - 2015 PHL - 2011 JFK - 2011 Central Park - 1988 LGA - 1972 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 34 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said: most recent OCT freezes: Newark - 2015 PHL - 2011 JFK - 2011 Central Park - 1988 LGA - 1972 wow Central Park didn't reach freezing in October 2011 despite getting three inches of snow?! I dont think LGA got any in that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 33 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said: most recent OCT freezes: Newark - 2015 PHL - 2011 JFK - 2011 Central Park - 1988 LGA - 1972 It is really not that long ago if you take out urban core. Im 38 and I never remember snow and winter cold in October until the past decade. Sandy to the snowstorm being the most extreme. Either way, these early season events dont usually bode well for winter...but there arent a lot of data points. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: i remember the euro beating the rest of the models with that system wow look at those totals from the Poconos! I think the furthest east and south the snow made it to was Central NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, jfklganyc said: It is really not that long ago if you take out urban core. Im 38 and I never remember snow and winter cold in October until the past decade. Sandy to the snowstorm being the most extreme. Either way, these early season events dont usually bode well for winter...but there arent a lot of data points. and then we had a really heavy wet snowstorm a week after Sandy! Our earliest 6 inch event ever at the coast! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: wow Central Park didn't reach freezing in October 2011 despite getting three inches of snow?! I dont think LGA got any in that storm? Line cut through central Queens. If you used the LIE as a reference, somewhere just west of Queens Center. It was that specific 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Amazing how many big events there are on our around 10/29 -1991 retrograder 2011 snowstorm 2012 Sandy 2020 nor'easter/snow big rains 10/29 is listed as the latest date a storm of hurricane intensity impacted the northeast (Sandy in NJ in 2012 and Ginny in Maine in 1963). Do you know of any TS that may have impacted us later than that? I remember there was one called Gordon that brought rains into the area in November but I dont remember what date or what year (except that it was sometime during the 90s.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Line cut through central Queens. If you used the LIE as a reference, somewhere just west of Queens Center. It was that specific I wonder what the snow profile with that storm would have been had it happened in Jan-Feb. Was the cutoff strictly because of how early in the season it was? I remember we had one and a half inches on the western part of the south shore of Nassau County and expected more but the snow ended in the middle of the afternoon. Still historic here, I'd only seen non-sticking flurries in October before with temps around 34-35 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 10/29 is listed as the latest date a storm of hurricane intensity impacted the northeast (Sandy in NJ in 2012 and Ginny in Maine in 1963). Do you know of any TS that may have impacted us later than that? I remember there was one called Gordon that brought rains into the area in November but I dont remember what date or what year (except that it was sometime during the 90s.) Maybe someone can do a formal reanalysis on the Dec 94 event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_1994_nor'easter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 No change in my early morning post on this thread. Will recheck again Tuesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Maybe someone can do a formal reanalysis on the Dec 94 event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_1994_nor'easter wild, I had completely forgotten about that! Chris, I remember you came up with a logical reason why a snow event in late October or November might result in winters with low snowfall in some years? It was because the atmosphere in our region takes awhile to recover before a notable wintry event can happen again, especially in the early part of the season? So this sometimes means a lackluster December, which can get winter off on the wrong foot, and then you have a long period of time before the first true winter event occurs- this happened in 11-12 as well as 12-13. And a couple of years ago too, when we had that surprise mid November storm. We had long snowless periods following all three of those very early storms. And especially in la nina like patterns a bad December doesn't bode well for a snowy winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1925 had an inch of snow and temps as low as 29 at the end of October...the following February was 1994 like...one of the few times NYC had 20" on the ground... NYC deepest snow depth... dates.........snowdepth 12/27/1872......18" ...one storm... 03/14/1888.......21" est...one storm... 02/14/1899.......20"...two storms... 02/10/1926.......20"...two storms... 01/23/1935.......18"...one storm... 03/08/1941.......18"...one storm before changing to rain... 12/27/1947.......26"...two storms...one 26"... 02/04/1961.......24"...more than two storms...one 17"... 02/07/1978.......18"...one storm... 02/12/1983.......19"...two storms... 02/11/1994.......22"...two storms... 01/08/1996.......20"...one storm... 02/17/2003.......19"...one 19" storm... 02/12/2006.......18"+ one storm... 02/26/2010.......21"...one storm... 12/27/2010.......20"...one storm... 01/27/2011.......23"...more than two storms... 02/13/2014.......18"...more than two storms... 03/05/2015.......19"...many storms... 01/23/2016.......22"...one storm... some places in the city got over 18" on the ground in other years... 02/10/1969.......19"...one storm...JFK 03/19/1956.......21"...Newark... 12/12/1960.......21"...Newark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Uncle has any place around the city had 30" snow depth? I think it might have been Newark in 1994 after 2 storms and JFK in 2016 because we recorded over 30" from one storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Uncle has any place around the city had 30" snow depth? I think it might have been Newark in 1994 after 2 storms and JFK in 2016 because we recorded over 30" from one storm? I'll check the local climate data tomorrow...brooklyn got 30" in Dec 1947 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 I was only in 6th grade at the time but I remember the temperature getting down to freezing or just below on the morning of Oct 30th and Halloween in 2011 imby, we picked up a trace of snow here on the day of the storm too but the temps hovered in the mid 30s that day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 My dad works for Metro-North and he took snow duty overtime up in Connecticut (I think they had around a foot where he was) and he came home with a bunch of videos of the near blizzard conditions for me. After I watched them, I remember being so dissapointed about living on long island, and then my dad says "it's only October, I'm sure we'll get a lot of snow this winter if this is how it's starting". We all know how that turned out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 5 hours ago, Intensewind002 said: My dad works for Metro-North and he took snow duty overtime up in Connecticut (I think they had around a foot where he was) and he came home with a bunch of videos of the near blizzard conditions for me. After I watched them, I remember being so dissapointed about living on long island, and then my dad says "it's only October, I'm sure we'll get a lot of snow this winter if this is how it's starting". We all know how that turned out lol I saw the NYC discussion on that storm....someone should've posted them here- 6-10 inches was predicted for NYC! Ended up with 3" there and 1.5" here near JFK but 6" as close by as the Bronx and Newark. Probably the only time NYC will ever have a winter storm warning in October lol- then again we said that 30 inches would never again be predicted for NYC after the Jan 2015 debacle and then we had it again exactly one year later in Jan 2016 and that time it actually verified at JFK lol. October 2011 reminds me in many ways of the April Fools Day storm in 1997. NYC ended up being the Fool lol..... 8-16 was predicted and we ended up with 1-2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Good Tuesday morning all, will be traveling this morning so won't be able to effectively-reliably comment but a very very quick read of the 00z/27 cycle op runs/ensembles. Yesterdays post still holds, tho a little concerned about models delaying changeover down into our area and resulting in a little less snow/cold drama. However, the 00z/27 EC op is holding firm. I wont post any pics since others will soon... and it may change yet again. In my opinion: IF the east-northeastward moving closed low aloft can maintain more structure as a closed low in its crossing the forum area on Friday, our chances improve for snow and a decent batch of heavy qpf Friday morning-early afternoon- if not: then the big qpf is Thursday and Fridays deepening of the sfc low off NJ won't happen and we go home frustrated by little or no snow (except I84 high terrain where I think some sort of accumulations are likely). Also...fwiw... IF they get 6+" of snow up in high terrain n of either I84 or I90 (Catskills-Berks-Greens-Ads-ORH hills), power outages would become a threat if it occurred in constant 32F dew point air. Still quite a ways off on having a reliable idea of any 6" accumulations. So from yesterday below: If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward. Killer freeze I80 northward Friday afternoon-evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except maybe parts of LI. NYC first freezing temp is modeled for NYC by the 00z/26 and 27 EC. (00z/27 UK has dropped a lot of the snow and is not quite as cold as it was on the 00z/26 cycle) As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday. Accumulative snow of several inches appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to an inch near the city in NJ but this possibility still has options for being less (GFS - Para seems to be the BEST model on this several days ago if this occurs). [[Corrected BEST for GFS PARA at 409P/26 ]] 00z/27 models generally backing off on southward extent of accumulative snow. on GFS PARA: if this doesn't happen down here--it was the first model showing sig snowfall this far south, and the ICON wasn't too far behind. So we may not know for sure which model is best, til 22z Friday. Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday. Minor coastal flooding possible with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY). Please follow NWS and posters here. 530A/27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: Good Tuesday morning all, will be traveling this morning so won't be able to effectively-reliably comment but a very very quick read of the 00z/27 cycle op runs/ensembles. Yesterdays post still holds, tho a little concerned about models delaying changeover down into our area and resulting in a little less snow/cold drama. However, the 00z/27 EC op is holding firm. I wont post any pics since others will soon... and it may change yet again. In my opinion: IF the east-northeastward moving closed low aloft can maintain more structure as a closed low in its crossing the forum area on Friday, our chances improve for snow and a decent batch of heavy qpf Friday morning-early afternoon- if not: then the big qpf is Thursday and Fridays deepening of the sfc low off NJ won't happen and we go home frustrated by little or no snow (except I84 high terrain where I think some sort of accumulations are likely). Also...fwiw... IF they get 6+" of snow up in high terrain n of either I84 or I90 (Catskills-Berks-Greens-Ads-ORH hills), power outages would become a threat if it occurred in constant 32F dew point air. Still quite a ways off on having a reliable idea of any 6" accumulations. So from yesterday below: If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward. Killer freeze I80 northward Friday afternoon-evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except maybe parts of LI. NYC first freezing temp is modeled for NYC by the 00z/26 and 27 EC. (00z/27 UK has dropped a lot of the snow and is not quite as cold as it was on the 00z/26 cycle) As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday. Accumulative snow of several inches appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to an inch near the city in NJ but this possibility still has options for being less (GFS - Para seems to be the BEST model on this several days ago if this occurs). [[Corrected BEST for GFS PARA at 409P/26 ]] 00z/27 models generally backing off on southward extent of accumulative snow. on GFS PARA: if this doesn't happen down here--it was the first model showing sig snowfall this far south, and the ICON wasn't too far behind. So we may not know for sure which model is best, til 22z Friday. Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday. Minor coastal flooding possible with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY). Please follow NWS and posters here. 530A/27 06Z NAM drops 2-3" of rain across the area so that looks like a good bet now. We can use the rain. I am not really invested in the snowfall potential at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I saw the NYC discussion on that storm....someone should've posted them here- 6-10 inches was predicted for NYC! Ended up with 3" there and 1.5" here near JFK but 6" as close by as the Bronx and Newark. Probably the only time NYC will ever have a winter storm warning in October lol- then again we said that 30 inches would never again be predicted for NYC after the Jan 2015 debacle and then we had it again exactly one year later in Jan 2016 and that time it actually verified at JFK lol. October 2011 reminds me in many ways of the April Fools Day storm in 1997. NYC ended up being the Fool lol..... 8-16 was predicted and we ended up with 1-2. Not exactly. They bumped up to 6-10 last minute after it changed over to snow quite a bit earlier than expected at the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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