Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

November Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

The long range now takes us into November where winter events have been known to occur.

Jus a glance at the GEFS suggests a near normal regime the first few days with the caveat that that’s a long way out.

Hopefully the mods can pin this and soon we will have stuff to talk about. :thumbsup:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF pinned this topic
1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ll take what the CFS is offering for DJF though. 

Yeah i mentioned this in the other thread a couple days ago. Even though it lost the HL 'help' for the winter months, the Pacific is decent enough(specifically EPO) to probably give us some cold air delivery at times. Still plenty of time for that idea to fall apart.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Sure. Except "having it now" doesn't make it less likely we will have it at the end of the month, or the month after.

Could be a winter preview.

Exactly,  fast Pac flow has been setting records for past couple years in regards to super fast jet stream and breaking down + PNA attempts.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:
I’ve learned to embrace the warmth. Shorts in November are ok with me 
 

Fall is the best time of the year for doing stuff outdoors. Not even close for me. If the winter ends up being extended Fall- mostly in the 50s/60s- then so be it.. as long as we can get out of this wretched wet pattern. If it's gonna be mild, bring on some abnormally dry.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fall is the best time of the year for doing stuff outdoors. Not even close for me. If the winter ends up being extended Fall- mostly in the 50s/60s- then so be it.. as long as we can get out of this wretched wet pattern. If it's gonna be mild, bring on some abnormally dry.

Hopefully the tropical connection is gone. That accounted for several huge events.  The amount of rain has caused much frustration for  farmers and allergy sufferers and those whom simply enjoy sunshine and outdoor activities. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, frd said:

Hopefully the tropical connection is gone. That accounted for several huge events.  The amount of rain has caused much frustration for  farmers and allergy sufferers and those whom simply enjoy sunshine and outdoor activities. 

And those trying to establish new grass. Too much of a good thing. Last Fall I had to constantly run the sprinkler, because we couldn't buy a raindrop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.01e9e0391133a72ad4a15067fb57b876.png

The high-bias in the forecast values reminds me of last winter.  Could the bias be due to a poor coupling between the ocean model and the atmospheric model?

On the positive side, the high-bias may allow some fantasy storms to come up the coast.   On the negative side, reality will be much more mundane.  

Not that the AO forecast has much to say about it but I'm rooting for a warm November.  My hunch is that the correlation between November temperatures and winter temperatures is negative - perhaps -0.02.  I'll take any advantage I can get. 

A depressing truth; the "smartest" forecast might be to use the ensemble with the most positive  AO value. 

Another depressing feature of the time series is that it goes negative about when the forecast skill goes to zero or at least to 0.16^2. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

image.thumb.png.01e9e0391133a72ad4a15067fb57b876.png

The high-bias in the forecast values reminds me of last winter.  Could the bias be due to a poor coupling between the ocean model and the atmospheric model?

On the positive side, the high-bias may allow some fantasy storms to come up the coast.   On the negative side, reality will be much more mundane.  

Not that the AO forecast has much to say about it but I'm rooting for a warm November.  My hunch is that the correlation between November temperatures and winter temperatures is negative - perhaps -0.02.  I'll take any advantage I can get. 

A depressing truth; the "smartest" forecast might be to use the ensemble with the most positive  AO value. 

Another depressing feature of the time series is that it goes negative about when the forecast skill goes to zero or at least to 0.16^2. 

 

Yeah we have seen this many times before in the LR, and it rarely materializes in real time. It gives us some hope for now though, until all our hopes and dreams are dashed by reality lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

0z GFS op for Mid November. I guess it was a 3-run epic -NAO mirage lol. 

gfs_z500a_namer_60.png

GEFS still has some +Heights up top but digs a trough out west the last couple runs.

That’s fine though, wouldn’t wanna blow a -NAO in November.  Let’s save it for January and February cause we know that’ll happen....right?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

0z GFS op for Mid November. I guess it was a 3-run epic -NAO mirage lol. 

gfs_z500a_namer_60.png

GEFS still has some +Heights up top but digs a trough out west the last couple runs.

After this cold blast we're looking like multiple weeks to take care of any outdoor yard issues

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...