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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


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Just now, NwWhiteOut said:

Heck the past few days we have a coating of ice on the trees and all these snow frizzle showers probly half to 3/4 of an inch of snow on the ground now. Its actually pretty, just light and no brutal winds...just a neat surprise snow. Its just the relaxing kind of snows, enjoyable even though it isnt much at all.

Same thing has been happening up here.  We probably have about the same on the ground.  Snowed lightly all day today and was blowing around everywhere.  Very nice.  

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3 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I call this Lucy.  I'm in far NW AR mind you.   Storm 1 best lift west of here.   Storm 2 east of here.   Granted it's the NAM.

 

 

snku_acc.conus.png

Heck I saw on one of the Canadian models a couple days ago a perfect little bullseye of nothing over Benton and Washington counties while everyone all around received a foot.

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1 minute ago, stormdragonwx said:

Heck I saw on one of the Canadian models a couple days ago a perfect little bullseye of nothing over Benton and Washington counties while everyone all around received a foot.

Man its always boggled my pea brain what causes it here lol? Im not sure if someone explained it already(sorry if so). Elevation and terrain?? I mean its not a terrible track but looking at maps theres a literal hole of less accumulations for NW Ar here...so mind boggling

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Agreed its totally weird. We get one anomalous once in a decade event like in 2011 then shafted the rest of the time. For us NWA folks I'm holding out hope on the GFS Ensembles. As far as I have seen every member on every run shows us getting at least 6 inches.

Here is the 18z, only one that scares me is #2 lol

 

GEFSSGP_prec_snens_174.png

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17 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

While the CAMS are a little worrying for many (dry), let's wait for the 00z GFS and Euro before panicking. The CAMs may still be a bit out of their best range right now. 

Agreed, i'm mostly not a huge fan of using CAMs for winter forecasting, but still not a great 00z suite. 

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The key for many of us is getting incredible snow ratios. SGF certainly poured cold water on the idea of getting SLRs of 20:1 or more, but I’m not sure how easy something like that is to forecast. 

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V16 looks way better again.   Can’t post the map for some reason.  QPF slightly higher than “regular” GFS run.   The few locations I spot checked have about 0.1 QPF more on the V16.  Is the NWS moving to the new version very soon?  Personally I would prefer to use that regardless of what it’s showing.  

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4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

V16 looks way better again.   Can’t post the map for some reason.  QPF slightly higher than “regular” GFS run.   The few locations I spot checked have about 0.1 QPF more on the V16.  Is this NWS moving to the new version very soon?  Personally I would prefer to use that regardless of what it’s showing.  

You're welcome. lol

gfs120snku_acc.us_sc.png

gfs120v16snku_acc.us_sc.png

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2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:


Thanks! Are you copying those on a laptop or your phone?  

Those were with the PC but I've done it with my Android its just a bit trickier to accomplish. You have to tap and hold the white area at the top of the graphic to get the "save image" option with mine.

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