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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion

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Just now, StormChazer said:

Tell you what, if the HRRR verifies I’ll have been right to put my money on the Canadian, haha.

 

Also, Tulsa will be caught off guard because they’ve been saying cold rain for a couple days now on the news.

Pretty much everyone would be caught of guard I think. Glad I decided to change my major from meteorology to accounting lol 

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3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Pretty much everyone would be caught of guard I think. Glad I decided to change my major from meteorology to accounting lol 

Glad I changed it to Business Administration.

Spoiler alert, being bad at math and going into meteorology don’t mix well!

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The bad at math part was why I didn't follow through either... haha...

SGF has added a northern tier of counties to Winter Storm Watch. StormTotalIce.png

This caught my attention as well...

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Just now, Solution Man said:

Most activity in this forum I have seen. I came from the mid Atlantic forum where it never snows.

It's been a long drought here as well, until this year.

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3 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

18Z RDPS for those interested. Canadian has been doing a great job so far.

 

That's a bit of a SE nudge as well. 

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5 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

Just started here too!  

No snow here man, did have a lot of sleet and rain mix though today off and on! almost 33F lol....quote didnt work, was responding to MoWeatherGuy also

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Interesting note from NWS Norman regarding the 12z model initializations. FWIW, the 21z RAP edged west with the main precip shield, while the 18z Euro maintained.

The complicating factor with this forecast is that for precipitation
amounts and types with the cyclone, the models widely diverge in
solutions and the impacts that result from the solutions. In
discussions with WPC, the GFS/NAM 12z initialization had a 30 meter
initialization error in the 500mb height fields, which should have a
sharper upper-level trough. For this forecast more weight was put
towards the ECMWF solution for precipitation location and type,
however the forecast for precipitation type/impacts could
drastically change with any shifts in path of the cyclone.

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3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

So while we are eagerly awaiting the 00z model runs, which site(s) do you all use for your model data? Didn't know what the pros/cons are.

I use pivotal. I was using College of Dupage before pivotal 

 

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30 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Interesting note from NWS Norman regarding the 12z model initializations. FWIW, the 21z RAP edged west with the main precip shield, while the 18z Euro maintained.

The complicating factor with this forecast is that for precipitation
amounts and types with the cyclone, the models widely diverge in
solutions and the impacts that result from the solutions. In
discussions with WPC, the GFS/NAM 12z initialization had a 30 meter
initialization error in the 500mb height fields, which should have a
sharper upper-level trough. For this forecast more weight was put
towards the ECMWF solution for precipitation location and type,
however the forecast for precipitation type/impacts could
drastically change with any shifts in path of the cyclone.

Does “sharper upper level trough” mean further west?   I’m not sure how to interpret that.  

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9 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Does “sharper upper level trough” mean further west?   I’m not sure how to interpret that.  

That sounds like We really do not know what the system is going to do and tomorrow could be totally different....

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27 minutes ago, OKTWISTER said:

That sounds like We really do not know what the system is going to do and tomorrow could be totally different....

Sounds about right.  I agree with that interpretation.  

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1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

So while we are eagerly awaiting the 00z model runs, which site(s) do you all use for your model data? Didn't know what the pros/cons are.

I use weather bell(paid service), tropical tidbits, and college of dupage. Everyone once in a while will hop on weather.us as well.

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1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

Does “sharper upper level trough” mean further west?   I’m not sure how to interpret that.  

It implies the system would be stronger and potentially take on a negative tilt.

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Just now, The Waterboy said:

The difference between the 00 HRRR and NAM are crazy.  Significant SE shift on the HRRR.  Hummmm...

The NAM, GFS, and Euro have been ultra consistent...

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Norman not real confident...

“Still uncertainty about the winter weather (where/what type & how much) over the next couple of days. The forecast will likely change so check for the latest updates.”

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9 minutes ago, JMT417 said:

SGF says an all rain event now

Makes sense. The only model showing significant ice was the Canadian, and as usual, it was way too cold. 

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