MUWX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Sign me up for that run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Quite the ice storm on the 00z GEM for eastern Arkansas this run. Not as much snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Interesting run on the Euro. I thought after seeing the GFS and Canadian take an eastern solution, the Euro may nudge more eastward, but instead it went even further west...haha.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Well, that was a warmer run and farther west as well on the Euro. Suspect it may have to do with the strength of the upstream "kicker" system digging into the SW and how it influences how wrapped up the main storm system gets. Variety of model solutions still on the table it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Not a good trend overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Not a good trend overnight... 6Z GFS nudged back west this morning from last night’s run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Temps are really concerning, not just surface temps but 850 MB temps are pretty toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, JoMo said: Temps are really concerning, not just surface temps but 850 MB temps are pretty toasty. Agreed. There is definitely a lack of cold air that hasn’t really been discussed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 TSA does address the warm air. "The Wed night through Friday forecast remains difficult. Good consensus does exist in a closed low developing within the base of the broader trough axis by early Thursday then lifting northeastward into the Missouri Valley by Friday afternoon. The much more uncertain aspect remains the exact track and the associated influence on thermal profiles and respective precip types as the system passes. A clear westward trend continues within the operational ECMWF while the operational GFS remains on the eastern periphery of its ensemble suite. Furthermore the latest EC ensemble suite show a notable warming trend in the lowest levels compared to recent runs, all of which would favor the forecast leaning toward the stronger western solution of the upper low passage. The lack of a deep cold low level airmass in advance of the upper low also favors a warming thermal profile well west of the sfc low track. Noteworthy is the continued presence of the unseasonably high moisture content airmass and its likely influence in yielding a broader and heavier precip footprint within the western semicircle of the upper low. The forecast trending toward the warmer solution does limit snow potential but also raises the potential for an area of light to moderate freezing rain. Currently the favored region for notable ice accumulations would be across far NE OK into far NW AR. Obviously plenty of moving parts in this forecast scenario and the forecast should be expected to change." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 The 12z ICON wins for farthest west I think, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 There was a discernable shift west in the 00z Euro & 06z GFS ensembles (stronger and somewhat slower), while the 06z Canadian Ensembles and the 12z NAM keep everything a little more open and to the east. The trend has been for stronger systems out here this year, I wonder if this will continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Not a great trend over the last couple runs. Warmer and further west. Who is surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Well, that was fun, next... lol 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 27 minutes ago, JoMo said: Well, that was fun, next... lol The 12z GEFS is not as warm for SW Mo as the op run. There is hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: The 12z GEFS is not as warm for SW Mo as the op run. There is hope? I don’t think all hope is lost, but the trend is certainly concerning. We shall see what happens tonight and tomorrow morning with fully sampled data, but regardless of track we’re going to have to keep an eye on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 KC area in prime spot as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 CMC is an ugly ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Sleet and freezing rain storm on the canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Yeah I got a bad feeling this is gonna become a nasty Ice Storm for my neck of the woods. I remember the one in 2000 that hit around this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Yeah I got a bad feeling this is gonna become a nasty Ice Storm for my neck of the woods. I remember the one in 2000 that hit around this time of the year. You and I get hammered on that Canadian run. The 2009 storm (was 2000 a typo?) was awful. Lots of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 NAM, CMC, and RDPS continue to be further east with crippling ice. GFS and Euro further west and warmer. ICON is way west and can probably be ignored for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 The 384 hour GFS is looking good! Although it's probably going to end up in Montana before all is said and done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 34 minutes ago, JoMo said: Sleet and freezing rain storm on the canadian. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 I like that little sliver of snowfall running through my backyard there. Probably 2" in the back and a 1/2" in the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 25 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: You and I get hammered on that Canadian run. The 2009 storm (was 2000 a typo?) was awful. Lots of damage. I was actually living in Tulsa for the 2009 one. I agree with what you said from what I saw and heard. The 2000 one that hit on Christmas Eve was pretty rough too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Hr 55 on the Euro and it's looking a little cooler right now than the 00Z run last night. Or maybe it's just the front is coming through quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Hr 55 on the Euro and it's looking a little cooler right now than the 00Z run last night. Or maybe it's just the front is coming through quicker. H72 it looks like it's going to be slower or farther west though. The kicker system is closer to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Ah, 34 and rain. Delightful. Wichita and KC gonna get nailed. I like the pity streak of snow Fri night into Sat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Well the 18z ICON was back farther east and at least a bit cooler at the surface. Looks like someone is going to get a ton of ice in KS into MO if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 GFS, puts down a lot of qpf...hopefully in the form of snow vs. ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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