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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion

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Decided to put "Winter" in quotes because you never know. Looks like a La Nina year this year. I've heard 2007-2008 a lot come up in analog discussions. That year had sharp Arctic airmasses push through from time to time and get hung up along I-44. Hoping for more of a -AO this year. 

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26 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Decided to put "Winter" in quotes because you never know. Looks like a La Nina year this year. I've heard 2007-2008 a lot come up in analog discussions. That year had sharp Arctic airmasses push through from time to time and get hung up along I-44. Hoping for more of a -AO this year. 

I do not remember the year , but I remember that winter , and it was frustrating to see so many good chances end up "Along the I-44 corridor "  and we got the 1" or less snows if any .  Anyway I trust that this year will be the year that breaks the no to little snow barrier . 

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Your area was kind of weird when I did my winter forecast. St. Louis did pretty well for snow, but areas closer to the Missouri/Arkansas border really got hosed for seasonal totals. Really sharp cut off. Same thing in the NE. NYC did OK, but Philly and south pretty bad.

I had 1995, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2019 as analogs, but with 2007 at five weight and 2012 at double weight. Most of the indicators I can think of in La Nina favor a cold West / warm East look, but it's strongest for the NW/SE. One thing I'd watch is that systems sometimes tend to dive unusually far south at the exact spot where hurricanes have hit. So the obvious spot for that this year would be Louisiana...and places north of Louisiana. That kind of showed up in the analogs too, with Texas and Florida much hotter than the Central Gulf Coast states. I think you had unusual snow events in New Orleans, Houston, etc. in years like 2005, 2008, and 2017, but I'd have to look.

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5 hours ago, Doramo said:

I do not remember the year , but I remember that winter , and it was frustrating to see so many good chances end up "Along the I-44 corridor "  and we got the 1" or less snows if any .  Anyway I trust that this year will be the year that breaks the no to little snow barrier . 

Yeah, it'll probably be similar to that, but maybe even farther NW depending on the AO this year. There's been an issue with recent years having a +AO for most of winter. We need a -AO badly. 

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I’ve been wondering when this thread would get started. It is crazy dry right now around here. In terms of winter.... I am ready to be disappointed again. 

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Both the Euro and GFS showing snow in the area about 10 days out. Nice to see, probably never happen but it is interesting.

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9 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Hello all new to this region, am coming from mid Atlantic region.

Welcome! Hopefully you can change our fortunes! 

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I saw that, but as usual comes down to timing and what to do with many pieces of energy. 

Absolutely beautiful day/night today if you like dreary fall weather.

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On 10/17/2020 at 1:12 PM, Solution Man said:

Hello all new to this region, am coming from mid Atlantic region.

Welcome! There aren't as many of us here, but we are passionate about getting our snow fix!

Spoiler alert, many of us have been in a historic snow drought, so tensions run high here until we get a good winter!

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Interesting run of the 12z GFS today. Different look from the 00z and 06z as it leaves a piece of energy behind that forms a closed low that rotates through. 

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3 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Interesting run of the 12z GFS today. Different look from the 00z and 06z as it leaves a piece of energy behind that forms a closed low that rotates through. 

It also looked fairly Icy. An Ice storm with leaves still on the trees would not be ideal. 

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2 hours ago, MUWX said:

It also looked fairly Icy. An Ice storm with leaves still on the trees would not be ideal. 

Yeah, but the Canadian and it looks like the Euro are going to leave a cutoff back in the SW US. This should allow things to warm and lead to less/or no ice/snow on those models. That's pretty typical of what we end up seeing.

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Canadian sees the potential for the first time, has an extended period of sleet and freezing rain. It’s looks like the freezing rain could be falling into an airmass that’s in the mid to upper 20s, which would definitely accrete. GFS continues to show the potential after the 18z GFS backed off. We shall see what the Euro shows in a few hours 

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7 hours ago, MUWX said:

Canadian sees the potential for the first time, has an extended period of sleet and freezing rain. It’s looks like the freezing rain could be falling into an airmass that’s in the mid to upper 20s, which would definitely accrete. GFS continues to show the potential after the 18z GFS backed off. We shall see what the Euro shows in a few hours 

00z Euro was a dud for ice and snow. 06z GFS still had some around though.

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Hey everyone! Long time, no chat! Crossing my fingers this is the year the pendulum swings back to our favor! Our region is due for a big one! :sled::snowman::snowing:

Haha! Thanks for posting that Jomo! At least I think we will get pretty cold next Monday...perfect night for some chili and cornbread!:shiver:

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GFS = most bullish with snow/ice

Euro = most bearish with snow/ice

CMC = in the middle with snow/ice 

Ive seen this a few times... guess who wins?

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Mike Morgan is jumping on the board for NW and Western Oklahoma. He uses the Euro most of the time.

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36 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

GFS = most bullish with snow/ice

Euro = most bearish with snow/ice

CMC = in the middle with snow/ice 

Ive seen this a few times... guess who wins?

We all know how this usually ends. I would not bet against the King. But new season, new chances await.

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Weather guy from Tulsa that is on my FB page. "

Enjoy yourself today. From here on out expect COLDER temps. NO NEED TO RUSH OUT FOR BREAD, MILK, AND TOILET PAPER, just yet! Right now, it still looks like mostly rain, but Monday will be a cold, wet, windy and raw day. Cold enough to change over and mix in with some light freezing rain and very very light snow here Tuesday. OKC and NW Okla. will have much more. Data is changing so please stay tuned. The thing that I am more confident about are the temperatures. Tuesday morning we could see our first freeze of the season in Tulsa."
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Weather Service in Norman posted this graphic around 9am Thursday morning.

image2.png?94afddd7020c010802f8c6c2af5d07ff

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Wow is it cold out there, already down to 41 with 30's upstream. So weird after how warm it was just hours ago!

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2 hours ago, JoMo said:

Wow is it cold out there, already down to 41 with 30's upstream. So weird after how warm it was just hours ago!

GFS continues to be bullish for Kansas and Missouri 

gfs_asnow_us_16.png

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