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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion

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Decided to put "Winter" in quotes because you never know. Looks like a La Nina year this year. I've heard 2007-2008 a lot come up in analog discussions. That year had sharp Arctic airmasses push through from time to time and get hung up along I-44. Hoping for more of a -AO this year. 

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26 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Decided to put "Winter" in quotes because you never know. Looks like a La Nina year this year. I've heard 2007-2008 a lot come up in analog discussions. That year had sharp Arctic airmasses push through from time to time and get hung up along I-44. Hoping for more of a -AO this year. 

I do not remember the year , but I remember that winter , and it was frustrating to see so many good chances end up "Along the I-44 corridor "  and we got the 1" or less snows if any .  Anyway I trust that this year will be the year that breaks the no to little snow barrier . 

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Your area was kind of weird when I did my winter forecast. St. Louis did pretty well for snow, but areas closer to the Missouri/Arkansas border really got hosed for seasonal totals. Really sharp cut off. Same thing in the NE. NYC did OK, but Philly and south pretty bad.

I had 1995, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2019 as analogs, but with 2007 at five weight and 2012 at double weight. Most of the indicators I can think of in La Nina favor a cold West / warm East look, but it's strongest for the NW/SE. One thing I'd watch is that systems sometimes tend to dive unusually far south at the exact spot where hurricanes have hit. So the obvious spot for that this year would be Louisiana...and places north of Louisiana. That kind of showed up in the analogs too, with Texas and Florida much hotter than the Central Gulf Coast states. I think you had unusual snow events in New Orleans, Houston, etc. in years like 2005, 2008, and 2017, but I'd have to look.

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5 hours ago, Doramo said:

I do not remember the year , but I remember that winter , and it was frustrating to see so many good chances end up "Along the I-44 corridor "  and we got the 1" or less snows if any .  Anyway I trust that this year will be the year that breaks the no to little snow barrier . 

Yeah, it'll probably be similar to that, but maybe even farther NW depending on the AO this year. There's been an issue with recent years having a +AO for most of winter. We need a -AO badly. 

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I’ve been wondering when this thread would get started. It is crazy dry right now around here. In terms of winter.... I am ready to be disappointed again. 

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9 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Hello all new to this region, am coming from mid Atlantic region.

Welcome! Hopefully you can change our fortunes! 

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I saw that, but as usual comes down to timing and what to do with many pieces of energy. 

Absolutely beautiful day/night today if you like dreary fall weather.

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