NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

The general thought is that while those fetches are clearly too short across Lake Champlain to fire off pure LES, we’ve always figured that having an additional body of water there certainly can’t hurt.  There’s no doubt that having that additional moisture present (whenever the lake isn’t frozen) is only going to make a positive contribution by at least helping keep the air heading into the mountains as saturated as possible.  It’s a great point to bring up though, because on the map you can see that winds from both those trajectories have to pass over Champlain before hitting the Northern Greens.

That's always been my thought process.  The Lake is too narrow to really get any pure lake effect going with the exception of those due north winds that can sometimes bring pure lake effect into parts of Addison and northern Rutland County.  But at the same time having a 7 mile wide body of water in a basin upstream of the Northern Greens certainly can't "hurt" by any means.  The best lake effect/upslope combo IMO is usually MRG and Sugarbush area... they can get some actual streamers going once upslope gets factored in.

[bwt3650]

A little over an inch here this morning and currently light snow showers.  At least it looks like it should outside.

[dendrite]

Yeah...you definitely need a longer fetch to generate the streamers themselves...hence why Champlain needs a north wind or the very rare cold southerly wind. But it doesn’t take much of a body of water to enhance a system that’s already there. I’ve seen flurries flying in the air with clear skies down the hill along the Winnipesaukee River on very cold mornings near saturation. If you have a body of water that can produce decent radiation fog it’s going to create some moisture flux. I know there was some research from the LES crew I worked with in western NY that found there was even decent moisture flux on the Great Lakes with a mostly frozen surface. But the point is I agree...Champlain isn’t generating any precip on its own with those westerly components, but there will be some element of enhancement. 

Do you guys notice heavier snows from them earlier in the season versus mid season when Champlain creates higher delta Ts? 

[Hitman]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...you definitely need a longer fetch to generate the streamers themselves...hence why Champlain needs a north wind or the very rare cold southerly wind. But it doesn’t take much of a body of water to enhance a system that’s already there. I’ve seen flurries flying in the air with clear skies down the hill along the Winnipesaukee River on very cold mornings near saturation. If you have a body of water that can produce decent radiation fog it’s going to create some moisture flux. I know there was some research from the LES crew I worked with in western NY that found there was even decent moisture flux on the Great Lakes with a mostly frozen surface. But the point is I agree...Champlain isn’t generating any precip on its own with those westerly components, but there will be some element of enhancement. 

Do you guys notice heavier snows from them earlier in the season versus mid season when Champlain creates higher delta Ts? 

I’ve noticed, all from my very rough memory, that here in the mrv we do better early in the season on the upslope, relatively to points north, Stowe and jay, before they clobber us beginning in January.  Totally unscientific but that’s my perception of experience for the last 15 years.

[bwt3650]

Pretty amazing lake enhancement from Ontario makes it all the way up here with the daks in the way.  The tug hill wrings out all that moisture with such lower altitudes.  Last year I think that big late feb storm of over 30” up here was due in big part to Lake Ontario.  It would be interesting to see a breakdown of how many events have a lake enhancement and how many are true upslope only, although I guess the upslope moisture is frequently lake generated?

[backedgeapproaching]

Jan 2016 Lake Champlain lake effect band. Was driving 22 N to BTV and ran into this band near Addison.  It was like 1F and +SN off the lake. I remember thinking where did this come from? Then looked at radar and you could see the lake connection. Sunny skies when I left Manchester.

 

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Jan 2016 Lake Champlain lake effect band. Was driving 22 N to BTV and ran into this band near Addison.  It was like 1F and +SN off the lake. I remember thinking were did this come from? Then looked at radar and you could see the lake connection. Sunny skies when I left Manchester.

 

I remember you posting that and was roughly what  had in mind thinking about Champlain lake effect.

18.6°/10.5° with .75" - 1" of new snow this morning.  I had to go into the office and had almost forgotten that an inch of snow could make the roads somewhat crappy.  Likely had to do with the temp crash below freezing overnight.

[J.Spin]

43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's always been my thought process.  The Lake is too narrow to really get any pure lake effect going with the exception of those due north winds that can sometimes bring pure lake effect into parts of Addison and northern Rutland County.  But at the same time having a 7 mile wide body of water in a basin upstream of the Northern Greens certainly can't "hurt" by any means.  The best lake effect/upslope combo IMO is usually MRG and Sugarbush area... they can get some actual streamers going once upslope gets factored in.

On that note, we’re supposed to be clearing out in general, but you can still see a few streams of moisture coming in from the northwest, and they’re passing right over Lake Champlain.  With the current temperatures, I’m sure the lake is doing whatever it does to help keep the air with a bit more moisture than it might otherwise have:

[J.Spin]

Well, we’re starting to get some flakes from those streamers here along the spine now, so I guess there’s still a bit of snow to wring out.

[bwt3650]

2 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Well, we’re starting to get some flakes from those streamers here along the spine now, so I guess there’s still a bit of snow to wring out.

 

We had a decent burst the last hour, more like a snow shower now.

[J.Spin]

12 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

We had a decent burst the last hour, more like a snow shower now.

Nice, even though it’s not quite visible on the radar up there, you’d have to think Jay Peak would be in on something with that sort of flow.  It’s always been a bit strange that a place with amazing snowfall like Jay Peak has had such poor webcam representation, but I do see there’s at least a time lapse one available now.  It’s on their Photo of the Day page, and it’s a really nice full HD view of the resort going through its daily motions and weather.  You can definitely see those snow showers hitting the area as you cycle through the time lapse:

https://jaypeakresort.com/resort/photo-day

[PhineasC]

Snowy and windy here. Perfection.

[Patriot21]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

I remember you posting that and was roughly what  had in mind thinking about Champlain lake effect.

18.6°/10.5° with .75" - 1" of new snow this morning.  I had to go into the office and had almost forgotten that an inch of snow could make the roads somewhat crappy.  Likely had to do with the temp crash below freezing overnight.

Looks like the same amount of snow here. I was up all night and snow started around 3 if I remember correctly. A wicked strong wind gust came in around that time too

[powderfreak]

Snowing borderline heavy now.  Visibility is probably 1/4 mile.

[PhineasC]

I don't see any snow on those walkways! 

[J.Spin]

28 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Snowy and windy here. Perfection.

And I’d say you’ve got two more wintry systems queued up – one starting tomorrow evening into Thursday, and then a second one Saturday into Sunday.  The GFS modeling seems to suggest a more wintry outcome with that second system over the past few cycles.

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I don't see any snow on those walkways! 

Ha nothing but dollar bills evaporating off those heated walkways.  Just straight steaming at this point.

[mreaves]

35 minutes ago, Patriot21 said:

Looks like the same amount of snow here. I was up all night and snow started around 3 if I remember correctly. A wicked strong wind gust came in around that time too

As the crow flies, I am 8.91 miles away from W. Topsham.  Seems like we have pretty similar observations a lot, though in my mind I think of your area as snowier.

[eyewall]

2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Jan 2016 Lake Champlain lake effect band. Was driving 22 N to BTV and ran into this band near Addison.  It was like 1F and +SN off the lake. I remember thinking were did this come from? Then looked at radar and you could see the lake connection. Sunny skies when I left Manchester.

 

I remember that! I drove to into it also.

[Patriot21]

11 minutes ago, mreaves said:

As the crow flies, I am 8.91 miles away from W. Topsham.  Seems like we have pretty similar observations a lot, though in my mind I think of your area as snowier.

When I tell co-workers I live in West Topsham they often reply with "you guys get a lot of snow" or something along those lines (if they even know where it is located), however I work down in Hanover and most of my co-workers live right in the upper valley. I do notice a difference in snow between here and there (I work right on Route 10). Between me and you I don't notice as much difference, maybe just slightly more here? I don't know if that ridge plays any role, I know those mountains go up and over 3,000 feet between me and you. Up and over Orange on 302 is where I notice more snow. 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

And I’d say you’ve got two more wintry systems queued up – one starting tomorrow evening into Thursday, and then a second one Saturday into Sunday.  The GFS modeling seems to suggest a more wintry outcome with that second system over the past few cycles.

Yep, this week has turned into a decent look after the cutter fizzled out. 

[alex]

Pretty persistent waves of upslope today. And man it's cold! The conditions at the mountain were quite good but the kids could only handle 4 runs before they started getting really cold. 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, alex said:

Pretty persistent waves of upslope today. And man it's cold! The conditions at the mountain were quite good but the kids could only handle 4 runs before they started getting really cold. 

Yep, wintry day for sure. 

[bwt3650]

Deep winter day up here.  Steady light snow since about 8 with some heavier bursts and breezy.  Prob picked up 2 or so more inches.  Radar doesn’t show much but it’s been consistent.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Patriot21 said:

When I tell co-workers I live in West Topsham they often reply with "you guys get a lot of snow" or something along those lines (if they even know where it is located), however I work down in Hanover and most of my co-workers live right in the upper valley. I do notice a difference in snow between here and there (I work right on Route 10). Between me and you I don't notice as much difference, maybe just slightly more here? I don't know if that ridge plays any role, I know those mountains go up and over 3,000 feet between me and you. Up and over Orange on 302 is where I notice more snow. 

The more snow part is likely more between us than at our actual locations.  The hills around Washington and Orange do really well.

[alex]

What's with this weather? I thought it was supposed to clear out but it's been getting more and more intense. It's almost like a squall now

[Hitman]

20f but feels colder.  I couldn’t warm up on the mtn today.  Too many groomers.  Need to get into the trees.

[dendrite]

Really windy here in NW downslope land...CON has frequently gusted over 40mph. The low dews and wind make it pretty chilly despite mostly sunny skies and upper 20s. Should be lower single digits by morning if we decouple. 

[Patriot21]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

The more snow part is likely more between us than at our actual locations.  The hills around Washington and Orange do really well.

I agree. West Corinth too I think

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Deep winter day up here.  Steady light snow since about 8 with some heavier bursts and breezy.  Prob picked up 2 or so more inches.  Radar doesn’t show much but it’s been consistent.

Radar never really shows Jay in the low level precip as the beam overshoots it, but I bet you’re doing well in this regime.

We actually have some sun coming out down south here now after some good pulses of snow.