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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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This was my first time here in Randolph with it snowing (I was in MD for the past two weeks and missed the other events).

I quickly drove around as we changed over to snow, and I can say I observed firsthand some of the factors that posters such as @ORH_wxman @dendrite and @alex told me about the area.

For example, the precip rapidly faded and mixed mostly back to rain as I headed west on 2 towards Lancaster. It was a noticeable drop-off just outside Randolph. Jefferson is the dividing area.

The snow was coming down well at my house, but as I drove into Gorham it quickly turned to rain and then further up 16 the precip basically ended totally. Dry air clearly affecting that area. I feel like in Berlin they may have seen stars or just high clouds. Any snow weenies living in Berlin must be miserable knowing what is just up the hill...

The radar was really fun to watch. The snow area on the radar started as a circle over Mt Adams/Madison and then as the snow line lowered the circle grew, and once it encompassed my house we switched to snow pretty soon afterwards. I thought that was pretty helpful and more accurate than I expected. This was on the MyRadar app on iPhone, BTW.

Anyway, it was just one super-marginal event, but I thought this was neat to see. I am excited to see an upslope pattern early next week to see how Randolph does. I feel pretty good about my chances, but of course these snow shower patterns can be about luck sometimes too.

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@PhineasC the difference in these mountain areas can be staggering and really fun to watch. Just ask Diane about how different it can be in just the few miles that separate us. Also you’ll learn to love the day or 2 after the storm even more than the storm itself  

Moderate snow has built in, light slushy accumulations but still pretty warm. 34/31

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About 1" of snow on the summit of South Moat (2770') this morning. It was interesting hiking from the snow-covered summit back down into the rusty orange oak trees at the bottom of the mountain, where there was no snow. Definitely a feel of winter out there today!

smoat_3.jpg

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Two beautiful pics - love the framing of Stowe with that bright aspen.

Had 0.24" cold RA yesterday and nothing today, October total now 5.32", about 0.3" BN as it's my wettest month on average.  Looks like the month will finish about 1° BN for temps.  November looks to be warm after the 1st couple days.  Hope that changes after mid-month as a BN Oct followed by an AN Nov has a poor history for snow at the nearby co-op.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I recorded 7" of rain this month so far.

The local observer recorded 7.30" so pretty good agreement.

Drought busted IMBY at least.

5" here so far.  Sitting at +.06 on temps for the month

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12k NAM 12z is much less exciting than the GFS and RGEM.

My exact lat/long is always within that blob of enhanced precip over the Whites the models all have. Hope that bodes well for being in the upslope zone.

GFS looks best for here right now. We will see what 3k NAM looks like once it is in range.

I am assuming the models aren't too great at pinning down upslope amounts? I assume all we can get is a general signal.

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

12k NAM 12z is much less exciting than the GFS and RGEM.

My exact lat/long is always within that blob of enhanced precip over the Whites the models all have. Hope that bodes well for being in the upslope zone.

GFS looks best for here right now. We will see what 3k NAM looks like once it is in range.

I am assuming the models aren't too great at pinning down upslope amounts? I assume all we can get is a general signal.

That second one was the CMC..thing has like 3 different names on various sites...lol

Yea, GFS, EURO, CMC arent going to be good at pinpointing upslope on snow maps...just not detailed enough..need mesos more for that. They can at least show that there is moisture and the appropriate wind direction to produce orographic lift.

I think with your spot, its more of a mystery.   Your going to need to have a few usplope only events to pinpoint what wind direction and if the flow is blocked/unblocked to see what produces.  I think Alex needs more of N/NW wind and JSPin and PF area can do well on NW and W(I think?). Blocked flow doesnt get over the spine of the Greens and hits more the western slopes and even back into Burlington. Again, not sure what is best for your location. Obviously the Randolph cocorahs guy records alot of snow, so uplsope would seem to be  big part of it.  I don't know how detailed the GYX NWS office goes into detail about usplope in you area.   BTV NWS seems to  love discussing that and many times go into great detail for the Northern Greens.  GYX has alot of area to cover, so not sure how detailed they get.

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51 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

That second one was the CMC..thing has like 3 different names on various sites...lol

Yea, GFS, EURO, CMC arent going to be good at pinpointing upslope on snow maps...just not detailed enough..need mesos more for that. They can at least show that there is moisture and the appropriate wind direction to produce orographic lift.

I think with your spot, its more of a mystery.   Your going to need to have a few usplope only events to pinpoint what wind direction and if the flow is blocked/unblocked to see what produces.  I think Alex needs more of N/NW wind and JSPin and PF area can do well on NW and W(I think?). Blocked flow doesnt get over the spine of the Greens and hits more the western slopes and even back into Burlington. Again, not sure what is best for your location. Obviously the Randolph cocorahs guy records alot of snow, so uplsope would seem to be  big part of it.  I don't know how detailed the GYX NWS office goes into detail about usplope in you area.   BTV NWS seems to  love discussing that and many times go into great detail for the Northern Greens.  GYX has alot of area to cover, so not sure how detailed they get.

I am on only up that way a few times each winter (a shout-out to my dentist in Gotham lol), but generally it seems the upslope is fairly comparable. My guess is that the upslope totals are slightly lower but the synoptic totals slightly higher, so it’s probably about a wash. I imagine better retention in a cutter though when we completely torch. 
 

NW to N is our bread and butter for upslope, and generally pretty similar to the Northern Greens. However, we usually don’t get anything out of the West or any LES episode. 

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Hey everyone; I've been posting in the ski season thread for a few years now but I never formally introduced myself.  I'm Chris and though my primary residence is in NJ I spend a lot of time up at our place in Jay and especially this year, will be up there for a good chunk of the winter.   I care much more about the weather up here than in NJ, so this is the thread I'll follow most.  Obviously, upslope is what gets it done at my location (1900',) so I'm looking forward to learning from you guys about the patterns to watch in this area.  Also, I figured it would be good to have a name to go with the f-u posts from the southern crew when I post pictures knee deep in powder from those three day long upslope events.  Enjoy the winter guys!

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00z NAM gone wild.   Good consensus for widespread snow in these model runs, but likely only advisory levels.  Fun to look at though.

 The northern slopes of the Adirondacks, through the northern Greens and northern Presidentials, all set up to get a measurable snowfall.

nam-218-all-vt-total_snow_10to1-4404800.thumb.png.6d7ff002f9ebc6ce5e839e655343249c.png

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13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This morning's view rolling into work.

123328235_10104358053223270_801006658886

Great pic PF.  Stoked I finally pulled the trigger on a pass that includes Stowe.  Never have owned a pass and have always gone where the most snow/best terrain will be.  Not sure having a pass will change that, but I am excited to save some money on the "down" days.

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14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This morning's view rolling into work.

123328235_10104358053223270_801006658886

That’s a great shot as others have mentioned.  I was in my office for a bit today and couldn’t resist getting at least a cell phone shot of Mansfield from my window covering the other side of the range – we’re definitely getting into the season now.

30OCT20A.jpg

Down at our elevation the snow was just a trace, but we’ve had multiple October snow events even reaching down here to the valley now, so that’s a good start.

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Impressively cold October morning here. My spot isn't phenomenal for radiational cooling, but 19 degrees is pretty good for 10/31 especially without snowpack. I don't anticipate I'll get much out of the Monday/Tuesday round, although the models do seem to be suggesting occasionally more than just your typical upslope event. It almost has the look of an inverted trough with steep low level lapse rates and a definite WINDEX component, so I think there is the possibility for some fun even outside of the usual suspect locations.

That said...I'm really psyched for the northern Greens and I even think the area from Franconia over to the western slopes of the Presidentials could do quite well. I fully expect to see someone risking a season-ending injury to ski the Cog with no base on Tuesday lol.

Heading up into the alpine today, but I snapped this pic from Black Mountain Road in Jackson yesterday. Starting to look quite nice up there.

jackson_4.jpg

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