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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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Just now, backedgeapproaching said:

Gene can chime in this, but I recall him or maybe dendrite mentioning that its been a quite a stretch without a 16" snowfall. I cant recall the exact threshold he mentioned , maybe 16" or 18". You would think think that area is due for a bigger event.

Synoptically they probably are due for one of those. It's just real hard to get anything 18" or more in the lakes region, but I think Brian has the better chance where he is. The Lakes Region is more known for the 6-10" deals and CAD. 

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We've been getting steady light snow since about 9am today, and there was even a slight coating on leaves (those that are left) and branches up until around noon. I took a drive down the hill shortly after noon, and there was no hint of accumulation as close as the base of Black Mountain which is only 200' lower than my cabin. It seems that 1400-1500' is really the cutoff today.

Currently 34F with the steadiest snow of the day, but no longer accumulating and our coating from earlier is gone.

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

I think you will do better than 90-95.  I average 90" in my CAD-rich/upslope-absent location at 395'.  30 miles to my SW, Hartford, Maine in the Sumner hills at 700' has averaged 108" for the exact same period as my record here, 98-99 on.  At 1500' I'd expect you to get at least as much as they do, maybe a bit less from synoptics but more when the track is too close to the coast.

I’ve also been waiting for Will to pop in and give his thoughts on the snowfall at jculligan’s site at 1500' on the shoulder of North Doublehead Mountain in Jackson.  It was really great when he commented on that site between Lancaster and Whitefield during the discussion in the fall banter thread.  The expected average there certainly wasn’t obvious to a bunch of us not familiar with that area.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

I’ve also been waiting for Will to pop in and give his thoughts on the snowfall at jculligan’s site at 1500' on the shoulder of North Doublehead Mountain in Jackson.  It was really great when he commented on that site between Lancaster and Whitefield during the discussion in the fall banter thread.  The expected average there certainly wasn’t obvious to a bunch of us not familiar with that area.

Having spent a considerable amount of time in that area, there is a huge increase in snow at 1300 ft along Rt 16 from Jackson to Wildcat. A prime snow belt, not too dissimilar from  Phins spot, within 15% 

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2 hours ago, jculligan said:

We've been getting steady light snow since about 9am today, and there was even a slight coating on leaves (those that are left) and branches up until around noon. I took a drive down the hill shortly after noon, and there was no hint of accumulation as close as the base of Black Mountain which is only 200' lower than my cabin. It seems that 1400-1500' is really the cutoff today.

Currently 34F with the steadiest snow of the day, but no longer accumulating and our coating from earlier is gone.

Sounds identical to this area this morning.  No snow visible until 1,300ft and then at 1,400-1,500ft arriving at work there was some snow on elevated surfaces, mulch beds, planters, that sort of stuff.  It was sort of funny in that there wouldn't be any snow on the actual ground, but if a tree had fallen over there would be snow on that tree trunk.  You'd only see snow on elevated stuff just off the forest floor, like stumps, downed trees, etc.

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5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Having spent a considerable amount of time in that area, there is a huge increase in snow at 1300 ft along Rt 16 from Jackson to Wildcat. A prime snow belt, not too dissimilar from  Phins spot, within 15% 

Thanks Ginx!  It’s definitely still intriguing though – we’ve now seen estimates suggesting anywhere from 90” to ~180” for the annual snowfall at that site, which is quite a range.

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15 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Thanks Ginx!  It’s definitely still intriguing though – we’ve now seen estimates suggesting anywhere from 90” to ~180” for the annual snowfall at that site, which is quite a range.

The observer very close to me in Randolph averages 185” for what it’s worth. I am still a newbie to the climo here so no idea what that means for him. Just a data point.  I am at 1550’, the observer is 1750’ or so.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

The observer very close to me in Randolph averages 185” for what it’s worth. I am still a newbie to the climo here so no idea what that means for him. Just a data point.  I am at 1550’, the observer is 1750’ or so.

Roger that – I just took that 185” and rounded it down a smidge to a very round 180”, since I figured things might drop off a bit with elevation (but not really sure how much).  Ginx indicated “within” 15%, and I figured he meant 15% on the low end, but maybe not, so I just sort of went roughly down the middle with the 180”.  Using 15% on the high end of 185” would be an average of ~213”, which would be pretty impressive.  That would be a greater annual snowfall average than just about every ski resort in the state, and pretty close to even nearby Wildcat (~225”). Balsams would likely come in higher, but they’re not really in operation at this point.

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1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

How did the 2011/2012 winter unfold for NNE?

2011-2012 was pretty poor at our site with only 115.3” of snow, which is 1.1 S.D. below the mean.  That puts it near the bottom 10% of seasons with respect to snowfall.

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9 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

How did the 2011/2012 winter unfold for NNE?

 

8 hours ago, J.Spin said:

2011-2012 was pretty poor at our site with only 115.3” of snow, which is 1.1 S.D. below the mean.  That puts it near the bottom 10% of seasons with respect to snowfall.

what J spin is trying to say is that it sucked donkey nuggets.

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4 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

 

what J spin is trying to say is that it sucked donkey nuggets.

And then came to a spectacularly abrupt end with the March super-torch; loggers had thousands of cords stranded on winter-only roads by a week of 70s and some 80s.

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17 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Thanks Ginx!  It’s definitely still intriguing though – we’ve now seen estimates suggesting anywhere from 90” to ~180” for the annual snowfall at that site, which is quite a range.

Could also be a snowpack type of deal too from driving through.  It's really hard to judge annual snowfall from the snowpack as we know around here.  Places that get half the actual "snowfall" can still have bigger snowpacks in that CAD region south east of Pinkham Notch.  It's still "snowy" in that regard, but it's really hard to judge snowfall without actually measuring it every day.  Like you drive through Tamarack's area and someone might be like holy crap, this place gets the most snowfall of anywhere around.

Basically it's a "deep winter" type of place, the actual inches that come from the sky might be different.

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41/36 with a steady rain falling here at 1500' in Jackson. Looks like H925 temps are progged to drop to 0C by 4pm so we should be seeing a pretty quick drop and flip to snow within the next 90 minutes or so. Then it's a question of how long we can hold onto the moisture.

I have to admit, I'm not feeling a great outcome with this one up here. Hopefully my elevation will help, but I'm wondering if the valley sees any accumulation at all before the moisture moves out. Most of the QPF is likely done by 8-9pm so.

Meanwhile, the setup looks increasingly good for my old place down in Natick MA. Imagine moving up to 1500' in the Whites only to miss the first substantial snowfall back in the flatlands. The irony!!

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Trails are white down to 2,500ft.  Snowflakes must be making it a bit below that elevation too but not sticking.

We’ll see if we flip over at 1500ft here before 5pm.

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16 hours ago, J.Spin said:

2011-2012 was pretty poor at our site with only 115.3” of snow, which is 1.1 S.D. below the mean.  That puts it near the bottom 10% of seasons with respect to snowfall.

 

8 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

 

what J spin is trying to say is that it sucked donkey nuggets.

 

4 hours ago, tamarack said:

And then came to a spectacularly abrupt end with the March super-torch; loggers had thousands of cords stranded on winter-only roads by a week of 70s and some 80s.

Ah, yes, I remember now. Oh dear. Was that the SNE winter where ColdMiser had a "snowblower mishap"?

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32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

GFS looks like a nice little event Sun-Tue in several waves.

5BC22993-0EF4-48B7-A9F2-9C5CBC48E98A.thumb.png.d7109b373528de57506fffd449ec0de5.png

I think Monday and Tuesday are going to be quite a harsh pair of days for early November. H85 temps down to -17C is approaching the limit of what I have personally ever seen during the first few days of November. I mentioned this the other night, but I think the setup is quite good for an early season upslope event in the Greens and possibly down to the notches of NH as well. The gfs does hint at a clipper-type system embedded within the flow for Monday night, which could bring snow even to the non-upslope locations...and not a typical autumn snow consistency either.

As for right now...we continue to slowly creep downward in the temp department. 37/35 with steady rain continuing here. I would imagine it's snowing at the top of Doublehead, as the MWN vertical temp profile shows the freezing level down to about 2300' right now. Hopefully we flip soon...

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Trails are white down to 2,500ft.  Snowflakes must be making it a bit below that elevation too but not sticking.

We’ll see if we flip over at 1500ft here before 5pm.

I was just looking through the latest BTV NWS AFD, and saw one of their usual nice nods to the skiers and riders:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

327 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

For individuals looking to earn some early season turns in late Oct, on an old pair of rock skis or snowboard, I recommend the higher trrn across the southern Green Mountains above 2000 feet on Friday.

KnowYourAudience.jpg

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Just now, J.Spin said:

327 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

For individuals looking to earn some early season turns in late Oct, on an old pair of rock skis or snowboard, I recommend the higher trrn across the southern Green Mountains above 2000 feet on Friday.

 

KnowYourAudience.jpg

And boy do they know their audience.  That's awesome.  You'll never see that from any other Weather Forecast Office.

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2 hours ago, jculligan said:

As for right now...we continue to slowly creep downward in the temp department. 37/35 with steady rain continuing here. I would imagine it's snowing at the top of Doublehead, as the MWN vertical temp profile shows the freezing level down to about 2300' right now. Hopefully we flip soon...

I think we've been about identical all day.  Just a brutal cold rain at 1,500ft when I've watched it snow up above all day.

I did just drive into the notch before it got dark and it's snowing steadily with accumulations starting around 2,000ft.  Road is still wet but temp was 32F... the State might shut 'er down tonight if it gets too icy up in those narrow switchbacks.

123014402_5300663483292428_6030016166536

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18 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Roger that – I just took that 185” and rounded it down a smidge to a very round 180”, since I figured things might drop off a bit with elevation (but not really sure how much).  Ginx indicated “within” 15%, and I figured he meant 15% on the low end, but maybe not, so I just sort of went roughly down the middle with the 180”.  Using 15% on the high end of 185” would be an average of ~213”, which would be pretty impressive.  That would be a greater annual snowfall average than just about every ski resort in the state, and pretty close to even nearby Wildcat (~225”). Balsams would likely come in higher, but they’re not really in operation at this point.

200" would seem really high for a spot with minmal to no uplsope and "only" 1500' elevation surrounded by higher peaks. I'm by no means an expert in that region of NH. Like you mentioned JSpin, we would need Will @ORH_wxman  to chime in.

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Still 36/34 here with the back edge of "phase one" only an hour or two away. I think it's pretty clear at this point it's a done deal below 2k feet. Congrats to locations farther south with "round two" from late tonight into tomorrow morning, but we'll definitely be too far north to cash in on that. I'm hiking a 2700' peak before work tomorrow morning, so it'll be interesting to see what I find up there.

Anyway, I suppose it's onto Monday now for most of us northerners!

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