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Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins


paweather
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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Are the 80's over (for all but Canderson and maybe Itstraining)? 

Certainly possible, but it's also possible we get that warm right into October. If I was a betting man (I'm not) I would hedge that a few of us hit 80 or better again this year. 

I think the first opportunity comes tomorrow...saw a couple of forecasts for 82 in Lancaster tomorrow. 

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On 9/11/2020 at 3:07 PM, Cashtown_Coop said:

Course not the house the record.  I was 0.000 at home.   The rain at course was perfect.  Get to keep the system off all weekend.  I tore my lateral meniscus so things have been hard the last 3 weeks.  Mother Nature on my side this time.  

 

On 9/11/2020 at 3:54 PM, 2001kx said:

I wish it was but had a rough couple months..

Was hit in the face by a rock during an Motocross Race..Busted my goggles.

Fractured my eye socket, cheek bone, around my nasal cavity and above my upper back teeth (jaw bone)

But the worst part is my eye has a blurry spot in the middle and my pupil doesnt work (always big / open) and the dr. said it may never get better.

 

Other than that it has been good -lol.

 

Goodness I hope everyone has a quick/full recovery from all the injuries. We're gonna have to put out an injury report when we're full swing in the wintertime at this rate lol. 

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I don't think we've made it to 70 here today under the clouds and had a couple decent showers late morning/early afternoon. Pretty much been cloudy here since Friday. 

You can see on satellite how the frontal system working through central PA this afternoon has drawn some of the western wildfire smoke up into it at the higher levels from the SW and also from the NW some.  Also you can see the two big ticket tropical items Paulette and Sally. Will have to see how much Sally eventually gets drawn up north before being shoved out ahead of another frontal push late week. Euro ensembles show some reasonable precip chances southern half of the state but right now it seems the general model consensus is the majority of eventual remnants stay south of PA. So we'll see how that goes. Right now Sally's being forced under the current frontal boundary to take its forecasted WNW toward the LA coast. That's also contributing to the westerly shear on it attm as well. Hopefully it doesn't get too wound up, because that is a bad angle to take towards New Orleans. 

1336319430_ScreenShot2020-09-13at4_41_25PM.thumb.png.c8828e39ccf40759e299b49de1c3bedc.png

Next weekend looks dare I say, kind of chilly behind the system that eventually kicks Sally away. Could be a decent chance of some frost in northern PA as well as the usual cooler suspects in the Laurels and central counties. The first couple days this week after the passage of today's system looks pretty nice as well, with Tuesday morning the chilliest and a more limited frost chance (Bradford/Allegheny National forest region). 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I don't think we've made it to 70 here today under the clouds and had a couple decent showers late morning/early afternoon. Pretty much been cloudy here since Friday. 

You can see on satellite how the frontal system working through central PA this afternoon has drawn some of the western wildfire smoke up into it at the higher levels from the SW and also from the NW some.  Also you can see the two big ticket tropical items Paulette and Sally. Will have to see how much Sally eventually gets drawn up north before being shoved out ahead of another frontal push late week. Euro ensembles show some reasonable precip chances southern half of the state but right now it seems the general model consensus is the majority of eventual remnants stay south of PA. So we'll see how that goes. Right now Sally's being forced under the current frontal boundary to take its forecasted WNW toward the LA coast. That's also contributing to the westerly shear on it attm as well. Hopefully it doesn't get too wound up, because that is a bad angle to take towards New Orleans. 

1336319430_ScreenShot2020-09-13at4_41_25PM.thumb.png.c8828e39ccf40759e299b49de1c3bedc.png

Next weekend looks dare I say, kind of chilly behind the system that eventually kicks Sally away. Could be a decent chance of some frost in northern PA as well as the usual cooler suspects in the Laurels and central counties. The first couple days this week after the passage of today's system looks pretty nice as well, with Tuesday morning the chilliest and a more limited frost chance (Bradford/Allegheny National forest region). 

We really need some rain.  So I do not hope damage on anyone but whatever it takes to get some rain up here.   We are back to a double digit deficit since May 1 at -10.05".   I do not think we have had any rain for the month so far.

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1 hour ago, pawatch said:

Thank you Mag!

Pretty much in the same boat as you Bub. We did pick up 0.10" of rain yesterday, first rain we have had in a week.

But not near enough...

If not for the overly wet spring some of us would be in a drought for the ages right now.    I was told by a Hydrologist in Frederick that our drop in ground water levels from Jan 2019 to now is the largest drop in recorded history for this county in going from about 50 feet to 78 feet.    Recorded history on this stuff is limited though as to how far back it goes. 

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7 minutes ago, paweather said:

Well...sorry all that I'll be posting again :-) I'm back took a few days my wife and I went to the beach just in time to come back to great fall weather. And Hurricane Sally. Looks like a CAT 1. 

next time, get authorization from someone here before going on vacation.  

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