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paweather

Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins

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8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One of the top 2 weeks of winter I've experienced. I don't recall offhand what we ended up with for the season, but I measured 43" over 6 days in early January. 

95-96 was probably the greatest Winter of my lifetime so far. It started in early and ended late, and delivered 77 inches of snow to Harrisburg.

That week in early January of 96 is legendary. The Blizzard of 96 delivered around 2 feet of snow to most of us. Then there was an over performing Clipper a couple of days later that delivered 4 more inches. The week was topped off by a coastal storm that brought a foot of snow to much of the LSV.

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4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Looking at the GFS and Euro MR forecasts it is entirely possible some people in PA will go the whole month with no rain (other than trace).  That is pretty impressive in a bad way. 

They're still showing a general chance of precip near the beginning of next week but not the big phase up yesterday's 12z runs had from both ops. GFS still seemed fairly rainy near Monday on 12 and 18z runs. I do think some kind of precip event will come out of that as we appear to be heading for a pretty sizable shift in the pattern next week. 

What the GFS/Euro are both really showing today with solid ensemble support is a big time eastern trough/western ridge in the D8-10 timeframe. We'd definitely be starting October pretty chilly if that were to come to fruition. 

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22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

95-96 was probably the greatest Winter of my lifetime so far. It started early and ended late, and delivered 77 inches of snow to Harrisburg.

I remember it as a more front ended winter back this way, starting with that mid November storm that was even bigger than the 2018 storm. There was a couple impressive cold shots in early Feb and early March but it was Nov-Jan when we got just absolutely rocked by snow. And honestly being 9-10 years old that winter I remember the snow and the '96 blizzard to a degree but the one thing that I remember vividly in that winter was the flood. How it literally took away 90% of that gigantic snowpack in just a night with warm temps and torrential rain and caused all that mess and by lunchtime it was teens/20s snowing and everything froze back up while everything was still flooded. But yea, after the flood there wasn't really any noteworthy storms...at least here. I might have been suppressed out of some stuff in February before it warmed up second half of that month. 

At any rate looking at the KPSU obs.. a whopping 77.4" of the observed 97.7" at the Walker Building Nov-March came prior to the Jan '96 flood. By month it was Nov - 23.4", Dec- 17.1". Jan - 41", Feb - 5.1" and March - 11.1". Thats nuts, even November on it's own pretty much about doubled up on last winter's total at KUNV (12.9") lol.

 

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35 degrees this morning. 3rd morning with frost.

 

edit: Ha Kerplunk we was both thinking the same thing. But I went and got a cup of coffee and come back and posted and your post showed up.

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At 9:30am this morning astronomical Fall began.  We continue to lose about 2 minutes and 40 seconds of daylight every day for about another month before the daily loss slows down. From today until December 21st we will lose about 2 hours and 40 minutes of daylight, bottoming out at roughly 9 hours 18 minutes on the first day of Winter.

Regarding the frost, I don't think I've ever seen the NWS issue 3 frost advisories in the month of September, and most remarkably 3 consecutive days, and all still during calendar Summer.

Wow.

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6 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

We just got mandatory no grass or flower watering flyers dropped off at our houses.     Now I am going to have to do it in the dark. 

Apparently this letter is why our supplier sent out the letters door to door.  I called them and was told that they were told S/E Franklin County is officially in a drought warning now on the verge of a drought emergency.  The county as a whole is not doing as poorly.  The municipality had to send out the public letters as its part of their DCP as mentioned in the link.  

 

http://files.dep.state.pa.us/Water/BSDW/Drought/2020_Drought_Watch-Warning_Ltr.pdf

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

I can’t tell you the last time I saw rain. It feels like a solid month but that’s probably too long,

It rained most places the last few days of August.   Outside that many locations have been shut out in September. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Another stellar day for getting outside.  Made it to 74 but felt cooler.  Probably a lot of 80's readings coming tomorrow.  Maytown A/C on full power. 

Factual information...

I want it to rain.

It can rain any day except for Saturday. Like..any other day...

It's going to rain on Saturday. 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Factual information...

I want it to rain.

It can rain any day except for Saturday. Like..any other day...

It's going to rain on Saturday. 

I predict someone hits 85 tomorrow in a summer redux.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

44 this AM and almost feels warm after the last 4 days. 

68 here just after 9AM - I think I'm in line for your 85 degree prediction from yesterday. It's warm already...

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP tweeted out this crazy graphic. The difference between Dauphin and Lancaster is hilarious. If this were winter I might have murdered @Itstrainingtime and @Superstorm  
 

77A217A7-36A2-4197-864E-7850CC166147.jpeg.a88d48619477b7618f71e29536805d8a.jpeg

That graphic is somewhat misleading for the trainingtime dude here in the historic district. Being in NW Lanco just 15 miles from MDT, I'm closer to the orange shading than you think. Superstorm is the guy you want to chase down first. That big fat 14.5 sits over his backyard. :) 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

68 here just after 9AM - I think I'm in line for your 85 degree prediction from yesterday. It's warm already...

That graphic is somewhat misleading for the trainingtime dude here in the historic district. Being in NW Lanco just 15 miles from MDT, I'm closer to the orange shading than you think. Superstorm is the guy you want to chase down first. That big fat 14.5 sits over his backyard. :)

You and Canderson were my two most likely suspects :-).  On that graphic, as I commented yesterday, the rain has been so scatter shot this year than one part of a county can be near normal and another in a major deficit.  Except for that one tropical storm the rest has been almost all scattered frontal and daytime heating type rain.   I think in the northern 2/3 of the state is more representative of a more general drought vs. the micro droughts in the south.  

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

You and Canderson were my two most likely suspects :-).  On that graphic, as I commented yesterday, the rain has been so scatter shot this year than one part of a county can be near normal and another in a major deficit.  Except for that one tropical storm the rest has been almost all scattered frontal and daytime heating type rain.   I think in the northern 2/3 of the state is more representative of a more general drought vs. the micro droughts in the south.  

Totally agree. Huge variations in rainfall even here in Lancaster. I just added up my totals for the date period of that graphic and I'm at 9.2". I'm running over 5" behind what Lancaster has had. 

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26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Totally agree. Huge variations in rainfall even here in Lancaster. I just added up my totals for the date period of that graphic and I'm at 9.2". I'm running over 5" behind what Lancaster has had. 

Yep, you can see it while driving around different areas as well.  When I was about 20 miles to my South East last weekend it was Grass fantasy land (just south of Hanover in MD) and I bet the people there are tired of having to cut their grass two times a week while other areas are getting farm disaster assistance from the government and watching rivers dry up.  I have never been involved with a drought of this magnitude even if it is a micro event. I am assuming that once the ground "freezes" a bit much less water is going to make it down to the aquifer vs. flow to tributaries and those in major droughts are sort of locked in until Spring.  Maybe I am wrong on that point.

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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

GFS gets farther north than yesterday, now clips SE PA. 

Both models seem to keep teasing but not sure it has ever ended up positive for most of us this summer.  The system last week ended up being a long way from raining in most of PA despite the Euro showing it just a day or two earlier.  So I bounce back and forth between some hope then reality I guess. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Both models seem to keep teasing but not sure it has ever ended up positive for most of us this summer.  The system last week ended up being a long way from raining in most of PA despite the Euro showing it just a day or two earlier.  So I bounce back and forth between some hope then reality I guess. 

Just like the cold wave the GFS had yesterday for next week, not nearly as cold today. Just like our Winter Months. :blink:

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