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Brian D

Fall 2020 forecast discussion

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Met Fall is just around the corner. If you have any forecasts or thoughts concerning the upcoming season, go for it.

I believe we start it off with cooler weather for the first half of the Sept with more normal conditions in the second half. My model suggests some very cold air coming in a little early with widespread frost and freeze conditions typical of later Sept in the north.

Oct looks to be quite a mixed bag of weather on a week to week basis into early Nov. Oct could be very interesting and a bit wild, but it is Oct, and wild is no stranger during this month as the seasons clash like they do in Spring. Be ready!! Then by mid - Nov, I'm expecting some very cold weather for our region with the LES machine cranking up strong. Then comes the heavy snows of early Dec, especially my way, but that's another season discussion.

The weather this Fall will probably mirror the crazy climate of little critters and elections. In the words of the Fonz "NUTSO"!! LOL

Be blessed all in these crazy times!

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I hope we can get a nice fall severe weather event. Been awhile since we had one of those. The derecho wasn’t enough for me :) . I still need to get one Actually Good tornado on the year and it’ll be complete. The two bird farts I got 5/23 didn’t do it for me. 

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18 hours ago, Brian D said:

Met Fall is just around the corner. If you have any forecasts or thoughts concerning the upcoming season, go for it.

I believe we start it off with cooler weather for the first half of the Sept with more normal conditions in the second half. My model suggests some very cold air coming in a little early with widespread frost and freeze conditions typical of later Sept in the north.

Oct looks to be quite a mixed bag of weather on a week to week basis into early Nov. Oct could be very interesting and a bit wild, but it is Oct, and wild is no stranger during this month as the seasons clash like they do in Spring. Be ready!! Then by mid - Nov, I'm expecting some very cold weather for our region with the LES machine cranking up strong. Then comes the heavy snows of early Dec, especially my way, but that's another season discussion.

The weather this Fall will probably mirror the crazy climate of little critters and elections. In the words of the Fonz "NUTSO"!! LOL

Be blessed all in these crazy times!

Just realized how far north in Minnesota you are. In 2016 and 2017 I was up in Fort Frances and spent lots of time in International Falls. You guys have a stronger Canadian accent then us in Toronto haha. Very friendly people and I couldnt believe the amount of dual citizens on both sides of the border. The towns almost seemed like one big town (radio did news for both towns and weather in F and C, parties/bars were attended by both sides) 

Your weather is certainly one of the harshest outside the mountain ranges in the US.

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I would love to have an average fall. I am so so so over summer.  Detroit had 14 days of 90+, which is not far from the average of 12, but the persistence of heat from mid June to July was impressive. Adding to stebos earlier comment, weak la ninas often have mild autumns followed by Winter hitting early and hard (with the 2nd half of Winter more up in the air).

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13 hours ago, hlcater said:

I hope we can get a nice fall severe weather event. Been awhile since we had one of those. The derecho wasn’t enough for me :) . I still need to get one Actually Good tornado on the year and it’ll be complete. The two bird farts I got 5/23 didn’t do it for me. 

Derecho was not enough? Tiny tornadoes not enough? Tell that to the farmers :) Well to each his own, even though I get it.

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21 hours ago, Stebo said:

I would go warmer than normal for fall with the La Nina that should be in place

A lot of strong warm fronts are mixed in my model so hence the mixed bag reference, so there will be that potential SE of my location. The N Plains have the strongest potential for a below normal Fall.

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6 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Brian D, keep us posted with obs this fall and winter, it’s great to have a new poster from the far north. 

Will do :)

 

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5 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Just realized how far north in Minnesota you are. In 2016 and 2017 I was up in Fort Frances and spent lots of time in International Falls. You guys have a stronger Canadian accent then us in Toronto haha. Very friendly people and I couldnt believe the amount of dual citizens on both sides of the border. The towns almost seemed like one big town (radio did news for both towns and weather in F and C, parties/bars were attended by both sides) 

Your weather is certainly one of the harshest outside the mountain ranges in the US.

Between CA and the Lakes, it sure keeps it interesting. NWS mets struggle with forecasting our area. Accents are much more prevalent up there than here. Pretty well mixed in my town. An "ayy" now and again comes up, but "sure, you betcha" is more common. :)

 

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1 hour ago, Brian D said:

A lot of strong warm fronts are mixed in my model so hence the mixed bag reference, so there will be that potential SE of my location. The N Plains have the strongest potential for a below normal Fall.

are you seeing a snowy start to winter in the Great Lakes? ala weak nina

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

are you seeing a snowy start to winter in the Great Lakes? ala weak nina

(From the August thread)  Would these work for you?

Quote

Bring on the August 2017, 2015, 2013, 2009, 2004, 2000, 1997, and 1992 analogs.

MOST would work for me. Wasn't 2017 a top-5 Dec for Detroit?

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4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

are you seeing a snowy start to winter in the Great Lakes? ala weak nina

Potential looks good, but mainly Upper Midwest/N Lakes tho. So I guess we shall see. As your username implies, your ready, so bring IT!!

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14 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Potential looks good, but mainly Upper Midwest/N Lakes tho. So I guess we shall see. As your username implies, your ready, so bring IT!!

 I'm ready for fall that's for sure. By Halloween time is when I get ready for snow. I'm in Southern Michigan, however when looking at the weak La Ninas, it's uncanny how strong the signal is for a snowy December.

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As long as we're not dealing with 90 degree temps raging into October like last year I'll be happy! 

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Looks like we're going to get an early Fall this year.

40 90°+ days incoming for ORD.


.
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9 hours ago, Gino27 said:

image.png.72654e3fdfdd7177afad769c7e8f24a1.png

 

Time to fire up the weenie machine!!

Reminds me of when I was looking at my vacation around Lake Superior back in 2016. At this range it even had snow along the north shore. What verified, a couple of normal days 70s/low 50s and then unseasonably warm in the low to mid 80s across the UP.

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15 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Reminds me of when I was looking at my vacation around Lake Superior back in 2016. At this range it even had snow along the north shore. What verified, a couple of normal days 70s/low 50s and then unseasonably warm in the low to mid 80s across the UP.

Yeah I'd say we're still in the thick of summer for quite some time. Don't love the early indicators of climo for late fall and winter.cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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42 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Yeah, September gonna be warm, probably turn wet too

Yeah especially if the Bermuda ridge can flex, if so then we can expect some remnant action head this way.

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2 hours ago, Gino27 said:

Yeah I'd say we're still in the thick of summer for quite some time. Don't love the early indicators of climo for late fall and winter.cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 Summers back, i.e. heat, is definitely broken, but it does appear to be some time before true fall weather settle thin. Not sure what early indicators you're referring to, but actually a weak la nina typically features a mild fall followed by an early onset of Winter. I have a good feeling about the Christmas season this year, but very on the fence about what happens after the New Year.  I researched weak La Nina winters here and the signal for a snowy December is as strong a signal as I've ever seen in an analog set, but after new years there's a large variety.

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On 8/15/2020 at 10:42 PM, Brian D said:

Potential looks good, but mainly Upper Midwest/N Lakes tho. So I guess we shall see. As your username implies, your ready, so bring IT!!

By the way, you've referenced "your model". what model are you referring to?

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Summers back, i.e. heat, is definitely broken, but it does appear to be some time before true fall weather settle thin. Not sure what early indicators you're referring to, but actually a weak la nina typically features a mild fall followed by an early onset of Winter. I have a good feeling about the Christmas season this year, but very on the fence about what happens after the New Year.  I researched weak La Nina winters here and the signal for a snowy December is as strong a signal as I've ever seen in an analog set, but after new years there's a large variety.

I was mainly referencing that those water temp anomalies signal positive EPO/NAO/AO. I could be wrong, that's just the way I see it being going forward. La Nina is typically good around here, but a La Nina developing this time of year following some time in El Nino usually lead to a EPO+ and AO+ pattern. However, the CFS (for whatever microgram of salt it's worth) has plenty of hope of a nice early start to winter. Like always, whatever follows after New Year's can really be a tossup.

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On 8/14/2020 at 4:51 PM, Brian D said:

Met Fall is just around the corner. If you have any forecasts or thoughts concerning the upcoming season, go for it.

I believe we start it off with cooler weather for the first half of the Sept with more normal conditions in the second half. My model suggests some very cold air coming in a little early with widespread frost and freeze conditions typical of later Sept in the north.

Oct looks to be quite a mixed bag of weather on a week to week basis into early Nov. Oct could be very interesting and a bit wild, but it is Oct, and wild is no stranger during this month as the seasons clash like they do in Spring. Be ready!! Then by mid - Nov, I'm expecting some very cold weather for our region with the LES machine cranking up strong. Then comes the heavy snows of early Dec, especially my way, but that's another season discussion.

The weather this Fall will probably mirror the crazy climate of little critters and elections. In the words of the Fonz "NUTSO"!! LOL

Be blessed all in these crazy times!

Oh, it'll be nice to follow your experiences in Two Harbors. I live just across the lake from you on the Keweenaw Peninsula (Calumet/Laurium, Michigan) and the difference between us is often striking.

 

Do you take many pictures? I hope so.

Definitely feels like fall is getting going over here. I've noticed that the leaves have distinctly begun to change, if only JUST.

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