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Chicago Storm

Mid July Heat Wave

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It's gonna happen, somewhere in the region.

Obviously details and affected areas tbd.

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For sure.  Solid/persistent signals in the guidance on the large scale.  As you said, it's the details that are up for grabs.  Many times there are attempts to build big heights northward in the extended that ends up getting thwarted by convective clusters, so that is a risk to keep an eye on especially with northward extent.  

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We are going to have by far the warmest July on record here.

From KBUF

It appears likely that there will be another heat wave during the July 16 - 22 period, potentially even hotter than the heat wave ongoing. Check out the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from CPC. Is anyone ready for winter yet?

image.png.16f85fe0cce2bad03dd7d5d5303462b9.png

 

Town Of Hamburg, New York (14 miles south of Buffalo)

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We are going to have by far the warmest July on record here.

From KBUF

It appears likely that there will be another heat wave during the July 16 - 22 period, potentially even hotter than the heat wave ongoing. Check out the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from CPC. Is anyone ready for winter yet?

Could be interesting given how warm the Great Lakes will be. On the flip side, the near-shore areas may be too warm for LES in the early season events, plus warm water in the summer/fall does not necessarily correlate to high seasonal snowfall.

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You want historic?

Check out the 12z Euro control run...


.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

You want historic?

Check out the 12z Euro control run...


.

Does it have 110F anywhere?  :maphot:

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Does it have 110F anywhere?  :maphot:

Upper 90’s to mid 100’s around here from Tuesday through end of run (following Wed night).

110-120 in the Plains early on.


.

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19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Upper 90’s to mid 100’s around here from Tuesday through end of run (following Wed night).

110-120 in the Plains early on.


.

Obviously not going to predict 100 in Chicago yet, but I'll feel better about the prospects if we get through the next several days without a large amount of rain and the models keep showing what they are currently showing.  ORD has started to dry out lately and by the time this round of heat comes, it *could* be about 2-3 weeks of being on the dry side.  Historically, a lot of Chicago's 100+ degree days have happened during significant drought or at least when not having much rain in the preceding couple of weeks.

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Obviously not going to predict 100 in Chicago yet, but I'll feel better about the prospects if we get through the next several days without a large amount of rain and the models keep showing what they are currently showing.  ORD has started to dry out lately and by the time this round of heat comes, it *could* be about 2-3 weeks of being on the dry side.  Historically, a lot of Chicago's 100+ degree days have happened during significant drought or at least when not having much rain in the preceding couple of weeks.

Agree. Would like to stay on the drier side overall, in addition to guidance holding firm or even looking better (ridge further north to keep ROF north).


Problem re precip... All guidance outside of the Euro/UKMET have widespread t’storms and heavy rainfall tomorrow, and then some on Saturday as well.


.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:


Agree. Would like to stay on the drier side overall, in addition to guidance holding firm or even looking better (ridge further north to keep ROF north).


Problem re precip... All guidance outside of the Euro/UKMET have widespread t’storms and heavy rainfall tomorrow, and then some on Saturday as well.


.

Yep, we're toast here. We've had over and inch and a half in the past 24 hrs and expecting more storms off and on through the end of the week. Dry ground feedback cancel.

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33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Agree. Would like to stay on the drier side overall, in addition to guidance holding firm or even looking better (ridge further north to keep ROF north).


Problem re precip... All guidance outside of the Euro/UKMET have widespread t’storms and heavy rainfall tomorrow, and then some on Saturday as well.


.

1999 was sort of an exception to the dry rule.  It hit 101 on July 30.  May and June weren't dry and neither was July... there was only about a week prior to July 30 that was dry.  But generally speaking, you definitely want it more dry than that.

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12z Euro was ridiculously hot south of I-80.  It actually has maxes near/over 110F for a few days in eastern MO.

Color me skeptical about that magnitude of heat.  There were a few isolated spots in the Ohio Valley that hit 110F back in 2012, but you need pretty extraordinary dry conditions to pull that off.

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18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro was ridiculously hot south of I-80.  It actually has maxes near/over 110F for a few days in eastern MO.

Color me skeptical about that magnitude of heat.  There were a few isolated spots in the Ohio Valley that hit 110F back in 2012, but you need pretty extraordinary dry conditions to pull that off.

It actually is backing off the extreme heat especially the farther east you go. It's been showing temps around 100 for all of Ohio but the 12z is now showing low/mid 90's for most except far northeast with temps in the upper 70's/low 80's. Wouldn't surprise me too much to see it back off a bit more.

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12 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

It actually is backing off the extreme heat especially the farther east you go. It's been showing temps around 100 for all of Ohio but the 12z is now showing low/mid 90's for most except far northeast with temps in the upper 70's/low 80's. Wouldn't surprise me too much to see it back off a bit more.

Why? Not saying you’re wrong, but this is all noise given it’s a week+ away. Its ensembles still have some support throughout the Lakes and OV, just going to be mitigated some days in northern areas by occasional MCSs. 

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Why? Not saying you’re wrong, but this is all noise given it’s a week+ away. Its ensembles still have some support throughout the Lakes and OV, just going to be mitigated some days in northern areas by occasional MCSs. 

This x2.

Tue-Thur is the biggest question as to where the hottest temps are located and where the ROF pattern sets up, with the first initial push of ridging. Past history says bank on the southern end of guidance for that.

On the flip side, the amount of support for the ridging and widespread hot temps to build into much of the region for Fri-following week is tremendous.


.

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1 hour ago, RyanDe680 said:

When does the incoming threat for fire danger take hold?

I'm kind of wondering where that will be a problem?  These ridges aren't exactly 2012 with dry frontal passages.

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Rumor has it this period is not looking as toasty.

ENS are still very supportive of ridging with hot temps and a ROF pattern...Here or very nearby for both.


.

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Ridge is delayed a few days now.  Tuesday cold front looks stronger and wetter maybe.  I think when the ridge finally builds it will have soupy humidity with it... so nasty heat index values.  Mid-to-upper 70s dewpoints and low 90s looks more likely than triple digit heat.

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27 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Ridge is delayed a few days now.  Tuesday cold front looks stronger and wetter maybe.  I think when the ridge finally builds it will have soupy humidity with it... so nasty heat index values.  Mid-to-upper 70s dewpoints and low 90s looks more likely than triple digit heat.

Definitely looking like moisture will be able to pool near and south of whatever quasi-stationary front is in the region later next week. 12Z Euro has heat indices 105-115 w/ that. 

Usually the 588dm height line is a reasonable estimate for the ring of fire, latest EPS means suggest the delay in more widespread heat, too. Wet weather next week in the Corn Belt would definitely support the 75-80+ degree dewpoints if such a pattern materializes.

m500z_6-10_bg_US.png.758c1c8b559384d2ccab477aa4d20fcf.png

m500z_11-15_bg_US.png.44c46397f03ff937dceebb597d9e5d4c.png

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i think this is a problem for those to my southwest to deal with, frequent mcs activity looks certain to prevent any prolonged death heat here

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2 hours ago, Baum said:

trending warmer it seems.

Certainly not this week, in fact through Thursday it's looking really seasonable for mid July.  That certainly wasn't looking like the case last week when we were looking ahead to this one.

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i think this is a problem for those to my southwest to deal with, frequent mcs activity looks certain to prevent any prolonged death heat here

The most prolonged/sustained and hottest temps will no doubt be just south. However, whenever the ridge flexes in, it’ll reach up north too. Fri-Mon looks like one of those times.


.

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5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

i think this is a problem for those to my southwest to deal with, frequent mcs activity looks certain to prevent any prolonged death heat here

I think the northern periphery will make up for the lack of triple digit temps with horrible humidity.  Missouri and Iowa are going to see the highest actual temperatures because it's been dry there.

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