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pen_artist

Drought 2020

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Honestly not sure what qualifies as its own separate topic discussion so please mods just let me know if this should just stay being covered in the monthly discussion threads. Figured since we may be heading toward an extended streak of dry, hot conditions that haven't been seen in quite some years a thread might be warranted.

https://twitter.com/nilwxreports/status/1280121654870339586?s=20

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Something to keep an eye on.

My corner of the state hasn't been dry.

Yeah, I don't see a widespread drought concern like 2012 was for a time.  There is enough moisture in this initial wave of heat to spark off storms in most sections of the Midwest.  If the next wave of heat next week loses the moisture aspect, that may differ.

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2 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:

Yeah, I don't see a widespread drought concern like 2012 was for a time.  There is enough moisture in this initial wave of heat to spark off storms in most sections of the Midwest.  If the next wave of heat next week loses the moisture aspect, that may differ.

Western Michigan is being lake shadowed to hell though.  I can see it getting extremely dry if we don't get a single damn thunderstorm.  These constant weak synoptic conditions with light west wind don't give any rain on this side of the lake.

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5 hours ago, frostfern said:

Western Michigan is being lake shadowed to hell though.  I can see it getting extremely dry if we don't get a single damn thunderstorm.  These constant weak synoptic conditions with light west wind don't give any rain on this side of the lake.

Are u joking with this post? It’s the absolute opposite the east side of Michigan has had little rain in the last three months in a lot of areas. Me personally living in northern Macomb we haven’t had squat you should take a ride in northern/central  Macomb everything is brown. I’m at about just under 1” of rain where I’m at since June 1

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Obviously we're not looking at another dust bowl, but given the current model projections, this map of drought conditions in the SW plains has to be a bit concerning from the standpoint of a positive feedback loop for temperatures.

 

image.thumb.png.84260bc0d517dfb0ee798d9d6970a020.png

 

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2 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Are u joking with this post? It’s the absolute opposite the east side of Michigan has had little rain in the last three months in a lot of areas. Me personally living in northern Macomb we haven’t had squat you should take a ride in northern/central  Macomb everything is brown. I’m at about just under 1” of rain where I’m at since June 1

Okay, but i's not the greatest year here either though.  It's not full drought yet, but still boring as hell if you want t-storms.  2018 repeat.  Have to wait until late August to get one of those good low-level jet-fueled nocturnal MCSs.  On the east side of the state you at least have a shot at some afternoon storms.  Here Wisconsin afternoon stuff inevitably eats shit when it hits the lake, and night stuff dies too with no low-level jet due to constant weak-ass synoptic pattern.  I remember when heat waves used to have nocturnal convection.  Recent times they have nothing but airmass shit that gets totally suppressed by lake-breezes.

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17 hours ago, frostfern said:

Okay, but i's not the greatest year here either though.  It's not full drought yet, but still boring as hell if you want t-storms.  2018 repeat.  Have to wait until late August to get one of those good low-level jet-fueled nocturnal MCSs.  On the east side of the state you at least have a shot at some afternoon storms.  Here Wisconsin afternoon stuff inevitably eats shit when it hits the lake, and night stuff dies too with no low-level jet due to constant weak-ass synoptic pattern.  I remember when heat waves used to have nocturnal convection.  Recent times they have nothing but airmass shit that gets totally suppressed by lake-breezes.

What does a shot of afternoon storms have to with the west being dryer than the East?

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1 minute ago, dmc76 said:

What does a shot of afternoon storms have to with the west being dryer than the East?

Western Lower Michigan seemed to do decently with storms in May and June, but this July pattern and lake shadow appearance looks to do them little favors.  I guess this persistent ridge and common SE/E flow is the main culprit.

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4 hours ago, dmc76 said:

What does a shot of afternoon storms have to with the west being dryer than the East?

I never said that.  Just that the pattern sucks and it's getting dry here too, especially north of I-96 and east of 131 where the June 26 MCS didn't give much rain.  It's frustrating seeing Wisconsin hog all the rain and thunder with this airmass popup pattern.  It's not as dry as the eastern side of the state yet, but that's mainly just the fact that there was quite a bit of rain June 9 - 11.  Since then it's been getting dryer and dryer here too.

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4 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:

Western Lower Michigan seemed to do decently with storms in May and June, but this July pattern and lake shadow appearance looks to do them little favors.  I guess this persistent ridge and common SE/E flow is the main culprit.

Yea.  The rex-block really dried out the eastern great lakes.  The block has finally broken down, but the jet is still too far north to propel any Wisconsin MCS into the Great Lakes.  Light westerlies with little shear and no nocturnal low-level jet is a dry pattern for me.

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48 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Yea.  The rex-block really dried out the eastern great lakes.  The block has finally broken down, but the jet is still too far north to propel any Wisconsin MCS into the Great Lakes.  Light westerlies with little shear and no nocturnal low-level jet is a dry pattern for me.

Do you ever get the inverse of lake breeze thunderstorms, at least for counties adjacent to the lake?  In your case it would be light easterly winds (or similar component) giving way to west winds off the lake.

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15 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:

Do you ever get the inverse of lake breeze thunderstorms, at least for counties adjacent to the lake?  In your case it would be light easterly winds (or similar component) giving way to west winds off the lake.

Yea.  We got some of those in late May this year.  When there was easterly flow during the blocking pattern there just wasn't enough moisture for anything to pop up. 

No easterly, but today winds were virtually calm and a pulse shower (no thunder) due to the lake breeze dropped an inch of rain at the airport.  I'm only 3 miles away and there wasn't enough to completely wet the pavement.  It just sprinkled a few huge drops of rain.  With dewpoint near or above 70 showers that form are super efficient precip-generators.  The problem is they form in one random place and don't move.

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Got narrowly missed by like a mile at my house from some storms but suspect ill get some rain tomorrow. Still abnormally dry here but we will see how long that holds up for

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5 hours ago, frostfern said:

Yea.  We got some of those in late May this year.  When there was easterly flow during the blocking pattern there just wasn't enough moisture for anything to pop up. 

No easterly, but today winds were virtually calm and a pulse shower (no thunder) due to the lake breeze dropped an inch of rain at the airport.  I'm only 3 miles away and there wasn't enough to completely wet the pavement.  It just sprinkled a few huge drops of rain.  With dewpoint near or above 70 showers that form are super efficient precip-generators.  The problem is they form in one random place and don't move.

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Yeah we got a quick downpour like that in the Milwaukee area today too, 5 miles away it looks like they had a quick quarter inch in about 15 mins and not a drop here. Luckily we don’t desperately need rain at this point.

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15 hours ago, pen_artist said:

Got narrowly missed by like a mile at my house from some storms but suspect ill get some rain tomorrow. Still abnormally dry here but we will see how long that holds up for

I think there will be SE diving ridge-rider MCS activity at some point.  The problem with this stagnant pattern is the showers don't move very fast.  They pop up in one location and rain themselves out, so instead of a 0.25" spread over a general area you get an inch falling over an area of a a few square miles and nothing nearby. 

I notice a lot of little mesoscale micro-climates with a pattern like this here in Michigan due to slight terrain differences.  Storms like to pop up near Jackson and Ann Arbor because there's a slight ridge there.  There also some pretty high terrain west of Cadillac in the northern lower peninsula that's been getting showers almost every day.  Low areas and areas too close to bodies of water miss most of the time.

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22 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I think there will be SE diving ridge-rider MCS activity at some point.  The problem with this stagnant pattern is the showers don't move very fast.  They pop up in one location and rain themselves out, so instead of a 0.25" spread over a general area you get an inch falling over an area of a a few square miles and nothing nearby. 

I notice a lot of little mesoscale micro-climates with a pattern like this here in Michigan due to slight terrain differences.  Storms like to pop up near Jackson and Ann Arbor because there's a slight ridge there.  There also some pretty high terrain west of Cadillac in the northern lower peninsula that's been getting showers almost every day.  Low areas and areas too close to bodies of water miss most of the time.

In this pattern this week it’s uncanny how the biggest pop ups tend to be near major cities.  

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1 hour ago, wisconsinwx said:

In this pattern this week it’s uncanny how the biggest pop ups tend to be near major cities.  

We’ve seen it here too. Toronto got blitzed yesterday by a big one that caused some flash flooding. 

Nothing here in the last 2 weeks. The sound of crunch is getting old when walking on (what used to be) grass. 

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26 minutes ago, Kitchener poster said:

We’ve seen it here too. Toronto got blitzed yesterday by a big one that caused some flash flooding. 

Nothing here in the last 2 weeks. The sound of crunch is getting old when walking on (what used to be) grass. 

Got ~25mm yesterday in my area with that storm cell. 

Better chance this weekend for some more widespread thunderstorms. We'll need to watch the "tropical" storm coming up the east coast and where it tracks and how it interacts with the low coming in from the Midwest. That will determine where the thunderstorms develop over the weekend. 

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4 hours ago, frostfern said:

I think there will be SE diving ridge-rider MCS activity at some point.  The problem with this stagnant pattern is the showers don't move very fast.  They pop up in one location and rain themselves out, so instead of a 0.25" spread over a general area you get an inch falling over an area of a a few square miles and nothing nearby. 

I notice a lot of little mesoscale micro-climates with a pattern like this here in Michigan due to slight terrain differences.  Storms like to pop up near Jackson and Ann Arbor because there's a slight ridge there.  There also some pretty high terrain west of Cadillac in the northern lower peninsula that's been getting showers almost every day.  Low areas and areas too close to bodies of water miss most of the time.

Your lawn must be getting a good drink today; I see a 2nd thunderstorm has just taken aim on Grand Rapids today.

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5 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:

Your lawn must be getting a good drink today; I see a 2nd thunderstorm has just taken aim on Grand Rapids today.

I finally did good.  Parts north and west still didn’t get anything though.  Waiting for the rain to the west.  Hopefully it at least gives the lakeshore counties a good soaking.  Hope it still has convection late.  MCSs typically become stratiform by morning with such weak shear.  There’s a good low pressure with it so maybe it will hold together despite skinny CAPE and weak shear.

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Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

#threadcancel

For the American posters you’re most likely right.  I can’t speak for the Ontario folks.

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