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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

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GFS brings it inland, or VERY close,  over Central Florida back out to come back  well inland through East Central NC and JUST misses being a big factor for the S/E LSV.  

A little west of previous


.

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On 7/30/2020 at 12:25 PM, CarlislePaWx said:

Keeping tabs on the record average at MDT for July.  Through yesterday the mean for the month was 82.2 degrees.  The record average temperature at MDT for July is 81.8 set in 1999.  The overnight low today was 72 and it's currently 90 at noon.  It would seem a lock for MDT to at least hit 92 today.  That would produce a mean of 82.0 and would leave the mean for the month at 82.2 going into tomorrow, the final day of the month.  In order to break the record MDT can lose 0.3 degrees with tomorrow's mean.  With 31 days to work with that means tomorrow's mean can be no lower than 11 degrees below normal, which would be 65 degrees.  The forecast temps at MDT for tomorrow are a high of 82 and a low of 72 with a mean of 77.  What all this means is that there is a 90% chance that MDT's mean for July 2020 will be higher than 81.8 degrees and will become the warmest July on record and the warmest month of any month ever at MDT since records began in 1888.

WOW!

The 1PM hourly update at MDT showed a temp of 81 after a morning low of 73. This is officially the warmest July on record in Harrisburg!

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS brings it inland, or VERY close,  over Central Florida back out to come back  well inland through East Central NC and JUST misses being a big factor for the S/E LSV.  

Yea the 6z Euro (and now 12z Euro coming in) was into the Fl peninsula as well and the 6z Euro ensemble low clusters was dead center into FL as well. Track is def not set in stone.. it could certainly end up traversing west more before turning. Conceivably it could even end up in the eastern Gulf, which would really ramp up the regionwide rainfall chances here when it gets picked up. The storm is approaching pretty low latitude wise, impacting the Turks and Caicos and looking like it's aiming more toward the southern Bahamas. It's also moving at a fairly modest 16mph pace.

If the storm does go up just east of Florida, that's probably going to set the trajectory for potential direct impacts around here to be east of the Sus River. Directly getting dragged through the FL peninsula is a bit tricky. There's not too much precedent for that track. A somewhat close recent example was Hurricane Irma in 2017 but that came up the western Fl coast and that was a different animal altogether... being a long tracked cape verde Hurricane that peaked before approaching Florida. Personally I think there's a better chance the storm gets on the left side of Fl than impacting into southern FL and curving inland through the whole peninsula. NHC will probably still favor the east of Florida track for now, but there are signs in the models that this cone might have to come west. 

Like I mentioned the best chance of this system becoming more of a regionwide thing here is if it got under or through Florida into the far eastern Gulf and then picked up. The setup is not such for a NC/SC bound tropical system to track directly through the area. That typically requires downstream blocking to the north/northeast to force the track N or NW into our area.. which we don't have. The influencing trough in the Great Lakes/Oh Valley region will def turn this out, just of matter of how far west the Hurricane can get first. What I think could be being under modeled at the moment is potential precip coming from Isaias interacting with the approaching trough. That type of stuff probably won't be resolved well until the short term guidance can get it's hands on it. There remains pretty big timing differences between the Euro and GFS, with the GFS being way faster. The GFS op really isn't the best for resolving tropical systems to begin with. At any rate, the 12z Euro has the center in the Chesapeake at 108 while the GFS has it out of the US. I lean slower but probably not as quite as slow as the Euro. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea the 6z Euro (and now 12z Euro coming in) was into the Fl peninsula as well and the 6z Euro ensemble low clusters was dead center into FL as well. Track is def not set in stone.. it could certainly end up traversing west more before turning. Conceivably it could even end up in the eastern Gulf, which would really ramp up the regionwide rainfall chances here when it gets picked up. The storm is approaching pretty low latitude wise, impacting the Turks and Caicos and looking like it's aiming more toward the southern Bahamas. It's also moving at a fairly modest 16mph pace.

If the storm does go up just east of Florida, that's probably going to set the trajectory for potential direct impacts around here to be east of the Sus River. Directly getting dragged through the FL peninsula is a bit tricky. There's not too much precedent for that track. A somewhat close recent example was Hurricane Irma in 2017 but that came up the western Fl coast and that was a different animal altogether... being a long tracked cape verde Hurricane that peaked before approaching Florida. Personally I think there's a better chance the storm gets on the left side of Fl than impacting into southern FL and curving inland through the whole peninsula. NHC will probably still favor the east of Florida track for now, but there are signs in the models that this cone might have to come west. 

Like I mentioned the best chance of this system becoming more of a regionwide thing here is if it got under or through Florida into the far eastern Gulf and then picked up. The setup is not such for a NC/SC bound tropical system to track directly through the area. That typically requires downstream blocking to the north/northeast to force the track N or NW into our area.. which we don't have. The influencing trough in the Great Lakes/Oh Valley region will def turn this out, just of matter of how far west the Hurricane can get first. What I think could be being under modeled at the moment is potential precip coming from Isaias interacting with the approaching trough. That type of stuff probably won't be resolved well until the short term guidance can get it's hands on it. There remains pretty big timing differences between the Euro and GFS, with the GFS being way faster. The GFS op really isn't the best for resolving tropical systems to begin with. At any rate, the 12z Euro has the center in the Chesapeake at 108 while the GFS has it out of the US. I lean slower but probably not as quite as slow as the Euro. 

Personal note, my wife, pets and I all evacuated a river house in Bradenton, Florida for Irma.  We were told the house was probably  going to be badly damaged or destroyed and it was a mandatory go.   We went to the center of the state, near the Villages, and had worse storm issues than if we had stayed in Bradenton.  Tracking tropical storms is fun but there is nothing I know of that is less predictable. 

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17 minutes ago, paweather said:

Dang. this is like tracking a snowstorm now! Lebanon County is looking good but just a bit to my east WOW. 

Look at the Lehigh Valley. Allentown and Bethlehem with flooding issues if that map verified. I'd end up with about 2".

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23 minutes ago, paweather said:

Dang. this is like tracking a snowstorm now! Lebanon County is looking good but just a bit to my east WOW. 

 

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Look at the Lehigh Valley. Allentown and Bethlehem with flooding issues if that map verified. I'd end up with about 2".

As you know, it will likely change, and change a lot. Since the first rain event that was set to begin last night, I've had a grand total of 0.00"

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3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Look at the Lehigh Valley. Allentown and Bethlehem with flooding issues if that map verified. I'd end up with about 2".

I'd end up with brown grass that's not crispy when you walk on it. :lol:

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Just now, paweather said:

When I see you signature line.....

:-( Last 2 winters 54.6 - 52.2 to this winter 16.2 Dang hard to believe. 

Yea lol, I actually never added in the few tenths I got during our wintry first 2 weeks of May, so it's more like a rip roaring 16.5" for the season. The real bad part about that is that those two season in the 50s are generally an average winter at this location. A normal garbage winter would be a notable improvement over what transpired here last winter. All the very worst ones in the last 20-25 years or so had at least one event that had a warning snow, or at the worst a few solid advisory events. Never measured anything much more than 2" on anything last year. 

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7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea lol, I actually never added in the few tenths I got during our wintry first 2 weeks of May, so it's more like a rip roaring 16.5" for the season. The real bad part about that is that those two season in the 50s are generally an average winter at this location. A normal garbage winter would be a notable improvement over what transpired here last winter. All the very worst ones in the last 20-25 years or so had at least one event that had a warning snow, or at the worst a few solid advisory events. Never measured anything much more than 2" on anything last year. 

Exactly! Insane, Mag. 

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Least snowiest season followed by the warmest July and month ever at MDT since 1888.  Looking like the monthly mean is going to finalize at either 82.0 or 82.1 degrees or at least 0.2 degrees above the previous hottest July in 1999.  2020....oh what a year it has been, with more to come it seems.  It's only July 31 and we're already up to the "I" tropical cyclone name.  There's 2 more systems waiting in the wings out in the eastern Atlantic and the Cape Verde season has barely begun.

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3 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Least snowiest season followed by the warmest July and month ever at MDT since 1888.  Looking like the monthly mean is going to finalize at either 82.0 or 82.1 degrees or at least 0.2 degrees above the previous hottest July in 1999.  2020....oh what a year it has been, with more to come it seems.  It's only July 31 and we're already up to the "I" tropical cyclone name.  There's 2 more systems waiting in the wings out in the eastern Atlantic and the Cape Verde season has barely begun.

Yea its hard to believe we're already up to "i" on the hurricane name list although we wasted the first several on minimal tropical storms that were of minor consequence or a non-factor. I've always compared recent active seasons to the ones of the pre-satellite era with a grain of salt. The 1933 season is still second behind 2005 with most named storms (20), and that was well before satellite and aircraft recon. Imagine how many more named storms there could have been if the technology to name any warm cored and/or subtropical swirl in the Atlantic Basin was available.

At any rate, before Hurricane Hanna and Douglas in the Pac that just missed Hawaii last week, all the tropical basins had been extremely quiet and below average when it comes to ACE (accumulated cyclone energy). The screen shot table below shows the tropical activity in each sector vs climo (in parentheses). Both Pacific Basins are notably behind where they normally are, especially the NW Pac. The Hemisphere as a whole is below normal right now for tropical activity. The Atlantic Basin will probably be picking up some of that slack the next couple weeks. 

1487818822_ScreenShot2020-07-31at7_22_28PM.png.d09bf8106ef1371a16cde58101c79cad.png

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

That's because it is dead.   

Yea lol, I was being semi-sarcastic. I do have some parts that are completely roasted but a good part of the yard is still salvageable. It just needs to rain like now. 
 

7C348935-DFB4-491A-9504-28E0FB0974F6.jpeg.b13392b90edbca0f49628ef90fe5d661.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

GFS west with the rains.


.

Looking at ensemble guidance, the 18z GEFS and 12z Euro EPS are in fairly good agreement with swath of heavier precip probs (an inch or greater in this example) with GEFS perhaps a tad east of the Euro.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-qpf_24hr_ge_1-6564000.thumb.png.1a820e8b5d0b43e9d8f5677d545f26b0.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-qpf_24hr_ge_1-6574800.thumb.png.74539ae5df2cd6f3e9fc7cab49ca69fe.png

 

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39 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea lol, I was being semi-sarcastic. I do have some parts that are completely roasted but a good part of the yard is still salvageable. It just needs to rain like now. 
 

7C348935-DFB4-491A-9504-28E0FB0974F6.jpeg.b13392b90edbca0f49628ef90fe5d661.jpeg

Actually does not look too bad in that pic.  Always seems to look worse when the sun is at is peak and a bit better in the evening. 

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Driving around today (our first day off since January 31) it really looks like a late July Texas landscape. If grass is in full sun, it’s essentially dirt now. It’s bizarre. 

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I have a feeling this hurricane gets beat by shear tomorrow and hits Florida as a weakening system. We get minimal rain as it’s too inland to feed off the coast past the Carolinas.   

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Driving around today (our first day off since January 31) it really looks like a late July Texas landscape. If grass is in full sun, it’s essentially dirt now. It’s bizarre. 

Wow.

 

Yep, we lost quite a bit of our yard.  I had someone over this week and he said its gone.  I can try to reseed in between weeds, this fall and again Spring,  or dig up the yard and start over.  Crikey!  

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This might be a first for me....

I am posting weather model maps that do not involve snow!

Here is the 6z Euro for the tropical storm this week. The Euro tracks the low well inland into southern VA. Here is also the total precip through the end of this run at 90 hours.

B91825AB-C93B-4CAB-B478-37F97F26F4A6.png

266F3C5D-0B4F-4D00-926A-5C892809FEE6.png

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