• Member Statistics

    15,925
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ESNATC
    Newest Member
    ESNATC
    Joined
Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2020 OBS Thread

Recommended Posts

26 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM is a Fay clone for the region with rain.

 

 

Yep look at the preciptable water out lay fairly good potential for heavy rain 25-40 mph winds and possibly some islolated tornadoes on the east and northeast side of the center whatever is left.

image.png.3eaf45fb598316b3911bfa3e6d5da547.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...Northeast...

   Weak mid-level disturbance will eject across the lower Great Lakes
   ahead of the main upper trough positioned farther west over the MS
   Valley. This lead feature should encourage a weak surface low to
   track from southern ON into southwest QC by mid evening. Any
   appreciable mid-level height falls will remain north of the
   international border, along with the primary large-scale mass
   response.

   Early in the day1 period, deep convection will likely be ongoing
   within a corridor of low-level warm advection, along the nose of a
   pronounced LLJ. This LLJ will shift north across upstate NY into
   southern ON/QC during the afternoon hours as a surface warm front
   advances north of the border. At this time it appears the primary
   focus for sustained, organized deep convection will be noted
   immediately ahead of the surface low. Latest model guidance suggests
   strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the surface low
   across western NY where temperatures should warm rapidly through the
   mid 80s. Renewed surface-based convection should evolve in the lee
   of Lake Ontario then track northeast. If the surface warm front were
   to be delayed advancing north into QC, low-level shear would be
   improved markedly across northern NY which would prove more
   supportive for supercells and tornadoes. Additionally, there is also
   some concern for strong convection along the trailing warm front
   that extends southeast across the Hudson Valley. While
   boundary-layer warming may not be as strong/focused as farther
   north, sustained warm advection and high PW-airmass should result in
   scattered strong convection. Forecast wind profiles favor some
   supercell threat, though clustering is also possible. Damaging winds
   should be the primary concern. 

   Farther south, a belt of seasonally strong mid-level flow will
   extend from the base of the trough over the southern Appalachians
   into the northern Middle Atlantic. While neutral/weak height rises
   are expected across this region, boundary-layer heating and
   orographic influences should encourage at least isolated
   thunderstorms. While poor lapse rates will limit convective updraft
   strength with this activity, modest cloud-layer flow should allow
   for some organization, along with a threat for localized wind
   damage.

day1otlk_1200.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

There was even a TOR up there for a bit about 45 minutes ago and a new one just issued.  Numerous reports of flooding/water rescues in Berks. Creeks out of their banks.

radar9-08022020.png

It was absolutely insane from 3am till 6:30am the thunder and lightning was unreal then the the torrential rain started shortly after.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's been a steam bath this morning although without the sun beating down and  temps still below 80, it's not too bad yet. Was just outside and am getting a bit of drizzle.  Currently 78 with a dp of 75 and light drizzle.

TS Isaias is looking more and more Fay-like and whatever is left is still being set to come through the CWA.

095802_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The trough is coming to pick Isaias  up later today and tonight.  warm front just went through clouds are flying from the south to north at the low levels.  Dewpoint 66 last night is currently sitting at 75 this morning.  Let the tropical games begin!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Suspect today could be our last chance this year of a 90+ day here in Western Chesco. Even if we fail to touch 90 again....the 5 such days already recorded this year are the most since the seven (7) 90+ days we recorded in 2012. For more good news for those sick of this heat....our last average day with a high in the 80's is August 17th - with our average high of only 77.7 by the end of this month!  On a wet note the WXSIM prints out 4.49" of rain from the tropical storm this week....we shall see!  We could use some rain as while we are still above normal we have not seen any rain in the last 8 days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, penndotguy said:

we ended up with 5.5"  

You Berks peeps were in the 4-8" rain splotch on the 6z ECM from the tropical system that's 100 year flood potential :yikes:

 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I seen some reports of 5.8 - 5.9".? That's "Floyd" material!!

92F / DP 75

Fall is coming soon...

td.jpg

Floyd was a heck of a storm here in se pa. 10" in several locations and lots of flooding

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Chief83 said:

Floyd was a heck of a storm here in se pa. 10" in several locations and lots of flooding

 

 

Floyd was great from a weather perspective!

Like an idiot and weather euthanist I remember going for a walk during Floyd when it was pouring.  I'm 6'1" and there were portions of roads which were up to my knees. It was like a river....great fun!  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Floyd was great from a weather perspective!

Like an idiot and weather euthanist I remember going for a walk during Floyd when it was pouring.  I'm 6'1" and there were portions of roads which were up to my knees. It was like a river....great fun!  

I used to have a half-barrel water garden with 2, 9" comets in it, and Floyd literally caused it to overflow and I had to run out there and keep bailing it out so the fish didn't go over the side! :o  It was a nightmare to drive home from work for that too (let out early).  Took several hours due to all the flooding, to do a normal 40 minute afternoon commute.

Mt. Holly just hoisted a Flash Flood watch for a large area -

Quote

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-070-071-101>106-030745-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0005.200804T0200Z-200805T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-
Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-
Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown,
Rehoboth Beach, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton,
Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville,
New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Pennsville,
Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson,
Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City,
Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest,
Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Media,
Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square,
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont,
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
333 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Delaware, northeast
  Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, including the
  following areas, in Delaware, Delaware Beaches, Inland Sussex,
  Kent, and New Castle. In northeast Maryland, Caroline, Cecil,
  Kent MD, Queen Annes, and Talbot. In New Jersey, Atlantic,
  Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic,
  Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester,
  Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern Burlington,
  Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Sussex,
  Warren, and Western Monmouth. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Carbon,
  Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower
  Bucks, Monroe, Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western
  Chester, and Western Montgomery.

* From Monday evening through Tuesday evening

* Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to
  start as early as late Monday evening and will continue through
  the day Tuesday. Widespread amounts of 3 to 5 inches are likely
  with locally higher totals possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that there is the potential for flash
flooding which can be life-threatening. Heavy rain is expected to
occur over a short period of time. Rapidly rising flood waters
may quickly inundate roadways and areas of poor drainage. Streams
and creeks could leave their banks, flooding nearby properties.

Please monitor the forecast, especially if you live in a location
that is prone to flooding. Be prepared to take action if a flash
flood warning is issued for your area.

&&

$$

Staarmann

Currently mostly sunny, 92 with dp 76.  Isaias still on track to barrel through here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember getting out of work early for Floyd. I thought it was ridiculous—it’s rain, not snow. But I wasn’t going to argue about being sent home. Then I got out on the roads and my (at the time) 15-20 minute commute took close to an hour with all the road closures. 


I did debate taking a walk but decided against it. Not so much for the rain but the wind—I didn’t want a branch or power line coming down on me.

Anyway, this afternoon’s Euro was interesting. To my untrained eye it looks like it keeps Isaias rather consolidated so we only get heavy rains west of I-95 and not biblical rains. Still plenty of time, nothings set in stone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I used to have a half-barrel water garden with 2, 9" comets in it, and Floyd literally caused it to overflow and I had to run out there and keep bailing it out so the fish didn't go over the side! :o  It was a nightmare to drive home from work for that too (let out early).  Took several hours due to all the flooding, to do a normal 40 minute afternoon commute.

Mt. Holly just hoisted a Flash Flood watch for a large area -

Currently mostly sunny, 92 with dp 76.  Isaias still on track to barrel through here.

I'm onboard with that. This Convid-19 stuff is depressing....need some excitement. 

Berks getting some storms again. 

be.jpg

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I remember getting out of work early for Floyd. I thought it was ridiculous—it’s rain, not snow. But I wasn’t going to argue about being sent home. Then I got out on the roads and my (at the time) 15-20 minute commute took close to an hour with all the road closures. 


I did debate taking a walk but decided against it. Not so much for the rain but the wind—I didn’t want a branch or power line coming down on me.

Anyway, this afternoon’s Euro was interesting. To my untrained eye it looks like it keeps Isaias rather consolidated so we only get heavy rains west of I-95 and not biblical rains. Still plenty of time, nothings set in stone.

I was younger then...didn't even consider "hazzards". But damn, it was fun!  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When I worked for Verizon I had to go to North Jersey after Floyd. A dam burst and flooded a central office that had an open wall for construction. What a nightmare.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.