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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A few pics from the Adirondacks on Monday.

 

 

 

Nice pics!  Looks like a great day of hiking. Won’t be long before you bag all 46 high peaks. 

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Pretty wicked cloud to ground lightning here with this current line of storms. On our 3rd round of torrential rain here too. BUF should come in with an impressive precip total today. 

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451 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Erie County in western New York...
  Southeastern Niagara County in western New York...

* Until 545 PM EDT..

* At 451 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Blasdell, or
  over Lackawanna, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

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24 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Pretty wicked cloud to ground lightning here with this current line of storms. On our 3rd round of torrential rain here too. BUF should come in with an impressive precip total today. 

I’ve been planning to till for three weeks, but the ground has been soaked. Now this weekend looks like another loss! Just get me a four day dry period going into a weekend so I can get my vegetable garden started.

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The next week is looking like my kind of summer weather! 60s to lower 70s. Perfect for what I enjoy doing during the summer. Hiking, working with my plants, lounging on the balcony. opening up the windows and sleeping GOOD! THAT is why I like this weather over 80s and 90s. If i had the luxury of a pool or a beach nearby, maaaaybe 80 for a week interspersed within cooler periods would suffice.

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11 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

The next week is looking like my kind of summer weather! 60s to lower 70s. Perfect for what I enjoy doing during the summer. Hiking, working with my plants, lounging on the balcony. opening up the windows and sleeping GOOD! THAT is why I like this weather over 80s and 90s. If i had the luxury of a pool or a beach nearby, maaaaybe 80 for a week interspersed within cooler periods would suffice.

From now through Monday looks like weather we would hope for on a *perfect* Columbus Day weekend.......highs upper 50's to around 60 and crisp nights.

I'll take it!

 

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12 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

The next week is looking like my kind of summer weather! 60s to lower 70s. Perfect for what I enjoy doing during the summer. Hiking, working with my plants, lounging on the balcony. opening up the windows and sleeping GOOD! THAT is why I like this weather over 80s and 90s. If i had the luxury of a pool or a beach nearby, maaaaybe 80 for a week interspersed within cooler periods would suffice.

The posters you find on weather forums are the majority of the time going to be ones that like the cold. People that like the heat and sun don't post here, or if they do its rare. I'm similar to a few posters on here that enjoy seasons in seasons. Hot and humid in summer and snowy and relatively cold in winter. There are definitely lakes near you though, they're not a luxury they are everywhere in upstate NY. You have the finger lakes, lake ontario, and several other lakes in and around syracuse, or just hop into a friends pool. 

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The posters you find on weather forums are the majority of the time going to be ones that like the cold. People that like the heat and sun don't post here, or if they do its rare. I'm similar to a few posters on here that enjoy seasons in seasons. Hot and humid in summer and snowy and relatively cold in winter. There are definitely lakes near you though, they're not a luxury they are everywhere in upstate NY. 

I want arctic cold in winter and searing heat in summer. I need the extremes. I’m digging out the hoodies and cold weather gear for the next few days. I hate it after that glorious taste of summer. 

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Just now, DeltaT13 said:

I want arctic cold in winter and searing heat in summer. I need the extremes. I’m digging out the hoodies and cold weather gear for the next few days. I hate it after that glorious taste of summer. 

The main reason I don't want it too cold in winter is the lake freezes up quicker. I want to maximize lake eries potential. ^_^

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Some rather strong storms firing up under this extremely cold airmass. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some hail with the freezing level so low. Would be harmful to the fragile new veggie gardens. 
 

Rochester had some rain but just cleared out so the atmosphere is ripe. Seems like several rounds of intense pulse storms will be on tap. . 

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16 hours ago, cny rider said:

From now through Monday looks like weather we would hope for on a *perfect* Columbus Day weekend.......highs upper 50's to around 60 and crisp nights.

I'll take it!

 

Yes! It definitely feels like a fall weekend when a cold front hits and you have lake effect clouds and rain showers. It was really nice Saturday morning with sunshine and 60s through the day...then it got overcast with a rain shower in the afternoon that dropped the temp to the upper 50s/60 degree mark during the late afternoon.

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16 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The posters you find on weather forums are the majority of the time going to be ones that like the cold. People that like the heat and sun don't post here, or if they do its rare. I'm similar to a few posters on here that enjoy seasons in seasons. Hot and humid in summer and snowy and relatively cold in winter. There are definitely lakes near you though, they're not a luxury they are everywhere in upstate NY. You have the finger lakes, lake ontario, and several other lakes in and around syracuse, or just hop into a friends pool. 

I wouldn't step in any of the lakes around Syracuse....I'd be glowing... :P  It might be easier to just "hop in" a friends pool if I had kids. Otherwise many people just want to enjoy their pools in their privacy.

The community we live in has a public pool available, but that's...well....not available right now. The Y has an awesome indoor water park...but...well, that's closed still.

We will find some opportunities to enjoy beach days, as we do every summer. With work and other projects, months of 80s and 90s are unnecessary for me personally.

I will be happy for you on the sweltering days that come this summer (while I hibernate inside in the A/C. haha)

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We had a great night's sleep under our big down comforter.  43F when I woke up.

No, I am not re-starting the pellet stove.  I did the big tear down and clean up last weekend.

It is not going back on until the fall....I don't care if anyone's lips are turning blue tomorrow morning!

 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Mid week we transition to full time summer!

 

 

Bring it!  Today is nice in a mid October kind of way. Need some sustained heat to warm up the lakes so I don’t have to worry about hypothermia when I’m out paddle boarding. 

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2 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Bring it!  Today is nice in a mid October kind of way. Need some sustained heat to warm up the lakes so I don’t have to worry about hypothermia when I’m out paddle boarding. 

Big cool down coming in mid June so enjoy the warm till it last. 

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Calendar says June but in my backyard it's October.

Brisk 40F with lead grey skies when I took the dog out this morning.  59F inside the house but we will just wait for the sun to warm things up.  No going back to heat now!

 

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20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Mid week we transition to full time summer!

image.thumb.png.bc2b402b8e238a3fd97c01be18e351f0.png

image.thumb.png.43e118c241c2a2c688460be3d5caf924.png

How 20 hours can change...already 60's again by the weekend after a moderate warm-up...

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3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

How 20 hours can change...already 60's again by the weekend after a moderate warm-up...

Good. I'd really like an extended Spring, since Summer tend to come in at full force too quickly.

 

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4 hours ago, Flying MXZ said:

Warm there.  I bottomed out at 30.2.  Frost in June isn't all that rare, but 30 probably is.  Good thing I've been slacking on the garden.

We lucked out.  We don’t radiate that well and the skies were cloudy with a decent breeze.

I’m curious if the valley below us got as cold as you did.

 

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On 6/1/2020 at 8:43 AM, Thinksnow18 said:

How 20 hours can change...already 60's again by the weekend after a moderate warm-up...

I don't see that? These temps are above average for early June. 

Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. 
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. 
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 71.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 75.

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8CC071D0-5908-405A-A9C6-7E1FB91A061C.thumb.jpeg.5598fae7ed10e4e8f9815e61785d3717.jpeg

May was definitely a month of temperature extremes and averaged out to be 0.8 degree below normal at Syracuse.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Area in slight risk with 2% tornado chances, 15% hail

day1otlk_1630.gif

day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif

 

 

Potential MCS, 2 of them apparently. The first is now forming in MN, the second is progged to form in the AM and pass through mid-morning. Buf AFD explains it quite well:

There will potentially be two MCS (or remnants of) which will impact
the region tonight through Wednesday morning. Convective waves are
always challenging to forecast, with forecast confidence increasing
once the convection starts to develop. This is happening with the
first wave this afternoon, with this wave forecast to move across
Western NY tonight between 9 p.m. and 2 a.m.

SPC highlights a slight risk of severe weather with this wave, with
strong to damaging winds the primary threat and large hail a
possibility. Wind shear is forecast to increase, enhanced by winds
generated from the MCS which is forecast to develop. Timing is a bit
late for severe weather, but Western NY should be in the warm sector
by then with SB CAPE increasing to 500 - 1000 J/Kg this evening.
Some storms may produce locally heavy rains, but our region will be
on the southern flank of the circulation with cellular storms
expected to develop rather than a large area of rain.

After this moves through there will be a break in the action late
tonight, with only scattered showers. However, there is good
agreement among mesoscale guidance that a second MCS will move across
far Western NY around daybreak Wednesday. Unlike the first wave, our
region will be in the northern sector of this wave, which will limit
the severe weather potential but increase the risk for heavy rain.
Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.75 inches, which
supports the risk for heavy rain. If this complex materializes,
rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely. One factor which will
help mitigate flood risk is that the system will move through
quickly, but depending on the extent of the system it could pose a
small risk for flooding. Most likely timing is between 7 a.m. and 11
a.m.
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4 hours ago, vortmax said:

 

Potential MCS, 2 of them apparently. The first is now forming in MN, the second is progged to form in the AM and pass through mid-morning. Buf AFD explains it quite well:

There will potentially be two MCS (or remnants of) which will impact
the region tonight through Wednesday morning. Convective waves are
always challenging to forecast, with forecast confidence increasing
once the convection starts to develop. This is happening with the
first wave this afternoon, with this wave forecast to move across
Western NY tonight between 9 p.m. and 2 a.m.

SPC highlights a slight risk of severe weather with this wave, with
strong to damaging winds the primary threat and large hail a
possibility. Wind shear is forecast to increase, enhanced by winds
generated from the MCS which is forecast to develop. Timing is a bit
late for severe weather, but Western NY should be in the warm sector
by then with SB CAPE increasing to 500 - 1000 J/Kg this evening.
Some storms may produce locally heavy rains, but our region will be
on the southern flank of the circulation with cellular storms
expected to develop rather than a large area of rain.

After this moves through there will be a break in the action late
tonight, with only scattered showers. However, there is good
agreement among mesoscale guidance that a second MCS will move across
far Western NY around daybreak Wednesday. Unlike the first wave, our
region will be in the northern sector of this wave, which will limit
the severe weather potential but increase the risk for heavy rain.
Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.75 inches, which
supports the risk for heavy rain. If this complex materializes,
rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely. One factor which will
help mitigate flood risk is that the system will move through
quickly, but depending on the extent of the system it could pose a
small risk for flooding. Most likely timing is between 7 a.m. and 11
a.m.

I’m confused...is the first MCS the one still way out over WI and MN?  Seems like a long way to travel to get here before 2am...I’m not seeing anything else upstream other than some weak showers north of L Ontario. 

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37 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

I’m confused...is the first MCS the one still way out over WI and MN?  Seems like a long way to travel to get here before 2am...I’m not seeing anything else upstream other than some weak showers north of L Ontario. 

The first one is somewhat developing right now north and northwest of Lake Ontario.  Parts of it are already moving through Rochester. It’s definitely diffuse and disorganized right now.  The 18z nam has it exploding in the next hour or so. Looks potent but it’s the nam

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39 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

The first one is somewhat developing right now north and northwest of Lake Ontario.  Parts of it are already moving through Rochester. It’s definitely diffuse and disorganized right now.  The 18z nam has it exploding in the next hour or so. Looks potent but it’s the nam

I stand corrected...didn't realize the first one was so close to form. Thanks Delta. Some lightning starting to show up to the NW and SW of ROC.

 

Screenshot (3).png

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