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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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However, trend is for farther west track of the upper
low and less if any influence from any tropical moisture lifting up
the Atlantic Seaboard, so it is looking more possible that
without stronger steering mechanism to push the axis of heavier
rain into NY, it may stay just west over the Ohio Valley. That
is certainly a trend showing up in latest guidance that occurs
when looking at the 24 hour QPF Monday night through Tuesday.
Should note though the trends are dizzying as for reference
point, 00z ECMWF with some support from previous runs plastered
western NY with 4-5 inches of run total QPF through Tuesday and
now that total with 12z run has dropped to mainly an inch or
less, other than along the warm front boundary toward Lake
Ontario where it shows some locations may receive toward 2
inches.

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Today was a beauty. Bright sun all day, low humidity, enough of a breeze off the lake to keep you cool working in the sun. We just did not get many days like this in Tennessee. We power washed the back deck, got the patio furniture out of the garage attic and cleaned it off, put down the outdoor carpet over the decking (deck is covered, so it’s more of a veranda). I have some custom coolaroo blinds on order to keep the afternoon sun off us. I’m going to live out there this summer.

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1 hour ago, WNash said:

Today was a beauty. Bright sun all day, low humidity, enough of a breeze off the lake to keep you cool working in the sun. We just did not get many days like this in Tennessee. We power washed the back deck, got the patio furniture out of the garage attic and cleaned it off, put down the outdoor carpet over the decking (deck is covered, so it’s more of a veranda). I have some custom coolaroo blinds on order to keep the afternoon sun off us. I’m going to live out there this summer.

Do you stain or paint your deck? The previous owners painted the deck and its start to chip off and was looking into staining. Any suggestions?

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5 hours ago, vortmax said:
However, trend is for farther west track of the upper
low and less if any influence from any tropical moisture lifting up
the Atlantic Seaboard, so it is looking more possible that
without stronger steering mechanism to push the axis of heavier
rain into NY, it may stay just west over the Ohio Valley. That
is certainly a trend showing up in latest guidance that occurs
when looking at the 24 hour QPF Monday night through Tuesday.
Should note though the trends are dizzying as for reference
point, 00z ECMWF with some support from previous runs plastered
western NY with 4-5 inches of run total QPF through Tuesday and
now that total with 12z run has dropped to mainly an inch or
less, other than along the warm front boundary toward Lake
Ontario where it shows some locations may receive toward 2
inches.

image.png.ea3865a47dca2ad67e846a3f8abcda1b.png

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Do you stain or paint your deck? The previous owners painted the deck and its start to chip off and was looking into staining. Any suggestions?

Great question. We actually had our deck redone last summer, with new decking, some strengthened joists, entirely new railings that are safe for our two year old, and completely rebuilt steps. We were told by our contractor to wait 12 months before staining. He recommended Ready Seal stain and sealer, and he suggested that we use an airless sprayer to apply it.

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Definitely not as much rain as predicted. Happy about that...and especially happy for this:

Hello Spring, nice of you to show up...

Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 65. East wind 9 to 13 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Southeast wind 10 to 13 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 10 to 13 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 69.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
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On 5/18/2020 at 9:30 AM, vortmax said:

Definitely not as much rain as predicted. Happy about that...and especially happy for this:

Hello Spring, nice of you to show up...

Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 65. East wind 9 to 13 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Southeast wind 10 to 13 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 10 to 13 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 69.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Yeah, we dodged a big bullet. With a cottage on Lake Ontario already under attack by the high lake level, I was dreading a mega rain event. Hopefully all the rain over IL and MI doesn’t impact the system too much. 

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Also...does anyone else feel like summer just busted through the door?  Skies cleared here a couple hours ago and the air feels great. I’m sure we’ll have to contend with more chill here and there, but forecast looks solid into next week. 

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From winter right to summer, opening the pool this weekend. 

Today
Sunny, with a high near 71. 
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 72. 
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 74.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 75.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 78. 
Memorial Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 81.
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25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From winter right to summer, opening the pool this weekend. 

Today
Sunny, with a high near 71. 
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 72. 
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 74.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 75.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 78. 
Memorial Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 81.

It could just be my own foggy memory but it seems like this is a common thing the last several years. Almost no spring, we go right from snow to 80s in 2 weeks. Maybe it’s because the last several years it seems we’ve had really crummy springs that have been well below normal so by the time the pattern flips we’re already getting close to summer solstice (1 month away right now). 

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34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From winter right to summer, opening the pool this weekend. 

Today
Sunny, with a high near 71. 
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 72. 
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 74.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 75.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 78. 
Memorial Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 81.

And cool weather is returning in June so don't open it too early like stores are. :)

 

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13 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Enjoy it till it last because it will be cool/chilly and wet in June :)

After enduring a horrifying 6 weeks of weather and now in the middle of awesomeness, you jump in to troll about a cool/wet June?  Weak...:mellow:

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4 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

After enduring a horrifying 6 weeks of weather and now in the middle of awesomeness, you jump in to troll about a cool/wet June?  Weak...:mellow:

GFS growing more confident that after a period of cold polar cap heights (PCHs)/positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) warming PCHs in the lower troposphere will force a -AO helping to transition ridging with warm temperatures to troughing and more seasonable temperatures in Eastern US

1.png

2.png

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1 hour ago, brentrich said:
GFS growing more confident that after a period of cold polar cap heights (PCHs)/positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) warming PCHs in the lower troposphere will force a -AO helping to transition ridging with warm temperatures to troughing and more seasonable temperatures in Eastern US

1.png

2.png

 

What's the correlation between AO state and temperatures in upstate NY in June?

Second, "troughing and more seasonable temperatures" for June doesn't sound as horrible as you make it out to be.

 

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7 hours ago, brentrich said:

Enjoy it till it last because it will be cool/chilly and wet in June :)

A cool/chilly June means highs around 70 which most people welcome.  I’m not worried, we made it......June/July/August are always super nice in upstate. Pretty much no way to **** it up. 

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If it was 70, low humidity, gentle breeze, with showers during the nights to water everything June through August...I would be in summer paradise.

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12 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

A cool/chilly June means highs around 70 which most people welcome.  I’m not worried, we made it......June/July/August are always super nice in upstate. Pretty much no way to **** it up. 

brentrich is probably just one of the 18 accounts that moron from Connecticut has to troll people with. 

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41 minutes ago, champy said:

brentrich is probably just one of the 18 accounts that moron from Connecticut has to troll people with. 

Agree. And that’s why it’s fun to counter stupid trolls with logic that can’t be defeated. 

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Hey, now! Not all of us "Cold weather" freaks are trolls.

I'm almost normal when you exclude my obsession with the white powder........ ;)

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11 hours ago, champy said:

brentrich is probably just one of the 18 accounts that moron from Connecticut has to troll people with. 

Please tell me how I'm trolling when I predicted this weeks ago. 

asdfasdfas.gif

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1 hour ago, brentrich said:

Please tell me how I'm trolling when I predicted this weeks ago. 

asdfasdfas.gif

You posted a good follow up analysis to your first “trollish” June will be cold post, and this is informative too. Sorry, we’re a bit sensitive here after being traumatized by weeks of horrible weather. All good. 

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