• Member Statistics

    16,113
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    dhubbard
    Newest Member
    dhubbard
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Holston_River_Rambler

NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 


I think they go WWA for everyone except Knoxville south Down I-40 and Warnings for the mountains


.

 

Agree, soundings are very borderline south of 40 in the valley

*as far as impacts to the roadways

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here's the whole run:

giphy.gif

About the best setup statewide we can get, weak energy passing to the south (no ugly waa) but just strong enough to transport the moisture and lift

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Inverted trough is now in the isobars. My chips are mostly snow if not all snow.

I wonder if the modeling is picking up on that or if the rates could go a little higher than currently modeled...just not sure subtle inversions are built into the algorithm 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wonder if the modeling is picking up on that or if the rates could go a little higher than currently modeled...just not sure subtle inversions are built into the algorithm 


This is the question I have


.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morristown seems to be running a little later than normal on their Afternoon Disco today, bet they are in serious debate at the moment.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 


This is the question I have


.

 

Only ones I would think could, an uneducated guess, is 3k, HRRR, so on...just due to their very low resolutions

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

Help! I've been NAM'ed for the second time in 2 weeks! I'm still super skeptical of temps. I said during the last event that I'd cut totals in half. I was wrong. Who knows what will happen this time. Fingers crossed!

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Help! I've been NAM'ed for the second time in 2 weeks! I'm still super skeptical of temps. I said during the last event that I'd cut totals in half. I was wrong. Who knows what will happen this time. Fingers crossed!


You where right to say that, it just over performed


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Special Weather Statement lulz

Across southwest Virginia, Tennessee valley and Plateau, light snow
accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch is expected during the day
Thursday but mainly over grassy and elevated surfaces. Locally
heavier amounts are possible across the higher ridges and
mountains.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will the SWA be upgraded to a WWA for the Valley?  I'm probably the least educated person on this board, so forgive my ignorance.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Special Weather Statement lulz

Across southwest Virginia, Tennessee valley and Plateau, light snow
accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch is expected during the day
Thursday but mainly over grassy and elevated surfaces. Locally
heavier amounts are possible across the higher ridges and
mountains.

Looking at all the soundings for central/southern valley and plateau, I think that was a good call. WWA, WSW, and WSW products are mainly influenced by travel (2"-3" of snow of the grass while pretty has little impact on the public). Most soundings are in the 34/35 range, couple degrees warmer than last weeks system..not ideal for accumulation on the roadways. Think they went a little too low for accums on grass and think the plateau will go to an advisory at some point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For anybody interested

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
341 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)...
An active weather pattern with strong jet dynamics producing
widespread precipitation through Thursday.

For Tonight, a good deal of mid and high level clouds, especially
southern half of the area initially. Deeper moisture begins to
pull back into area toward daybreak Thursday.

For Thursday, the strong jet dynamics with a 300mb jet of
150-160kts over the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic states. The
forcing will produce strong forcing with good fronto-genetic lift
around the 600mb level. Models also show good isentropic lift.

Initially, the temperature profile shows more of a mixture of
rain/snow but once dynamic cooling ramps up the precipitation will
change over the snow most locations.

Looking at HREF ensembles, the Smoky Mountains will likely receive
the most snowfall with up to 6 inches with generally 2 to 4. Have
upgrade this area to a warning. The winter weather advisory for
the rest of the east Tennessee Mountains and southwest North
Carolina looks good.

Big question is snow accumulations for the Tennessee valley and
Plateau. Given the boundary layer temperature is marginal for
snow, ground temperatures in the 30s/40s,and snowfall occurring
during the day, snowfall will likely be limited to mainly grassy
and elevated surfaces.

Snow will taper off to light snow showers/furries by late
afternoon and early evening.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Inverted trough is now in the isobars. My chips are mostly snow if not all snow.

Even for Chattanooga? Soundings look like rain at least for the first half. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Looking at all the soundings for central/southern valley and plateau, I think that was a good call. WWA, WSW, and WSW products are mainly influenced by travel (2"-3" of snow of the grass while pretty has little impact on the public). Most soundings are in the 34/35 range, couple degrees warmer than last weeks system..not ideal for accumulation on the roadways. Think they went a little too low for accums on grass and think the plateau will go to an advisory at some point.

From the way I read it they are only expecting .5-1" on grassy surfaces, road temps can also drop to support accumulating snow if there is a heavy enough band.  Not sure how heavy this snow is supposed to be

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought most areas were supposed to get below freezing tonight (north of 40)  Now I see lows in the 34 range.  No wonder they are being conservative.  If we could make it to around 29-30 it would have a much bigger impact, IMO.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like they are expecting heavy cloud cover tonight keeping the temps from dropping even more, but right now in Johnson City clouds are clearing out so who knows

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

From the way I read it they are only expecting .5-1" on grassy surfaces, road temps can also drop to support accumulating snow if there is a heavy enough band.  Not sure how heavy this snow is supposed to be

Yeah, I would cut the NAM totals by 1/2 to 1/3..so 1"-2" in central/southern valley (2"-3" in those areas where ridge tops get to 1200'-1500' plus). Last weeks soundings had Chatt around 32/33 (fairly spot on with actual observed)..it was close enough to 32 for higher rates to impact the roads. 34/35 is just too high for rates to cool, still could see shaded areas of roadways try to accumulate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep my low here was initially forecast for 31 and then it went to 33 but I see where it is now back to 31 for tonight. Just need a little more moisture that way. Temps just a degree or 2 one way or the other is going to make a difference, especially on the plateau and valley areas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Maybe some of us get some radiational cooling this PM?
 
giphy.gif&key=655e9b6c0ed04eab947153a391245736a71cf41b4856dbdddc4054e7949d02c9
Wonder what our chances of staying semi-clear for a while are through the night to get some of that good radiational cooling?

Then I wonder about evaporative cooling at the onset of the precip or will any of that play any factor in this current upcoming scenario?



Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.