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Holston_River_Rambler

NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21

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Looking at the soundings across all models for eastern valley..NAM is coldest at the surface (would be similar roads to what Chatt experienced last week), while rest sit around 34-35 with the below freezing mark down to around 1500'.

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[mention=2545]nrgjeff[/mention], do we still like the WRF ARW?  That was a pretty big improvement at 12z for most folks south of I-40 and much of E TN...

FYI... the day of the SE Tennessee snow last Saturday the WRF was the only mod showing snow up to Knoxville. All 3 of those on pivotal made the jump to the NAM/Euro for tomorrow’s system

 

 

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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

FYI... the day of the SE Tennessee snow last Saturday the WRF was the only mod showing snow up to Knoxville. All 3 of those on pivotal made the jump to the NAM/Euro for tomorrow’s system

 

 

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Yeah, I think Jeff likes to use that model.  I just can't remember which circumstances.  It really moved northwest at 12z.  Looks like the Euro.

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think I mistook what you meant @Carvers Gap

here ye go:

giphy.gif

With precip type?  LOL.  I didn't say what I meant the first time.  Sorry.  Just trying to see the system move in.  Looks like 12 hour duration event in NE TN on the Euro...

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And the Euro is All Snow baby! Picks up on isentropic lift, though such charts are not available. However one can deduce it from 700 mb which finally shows WAA but steady/falling temps at 700 mb. As MRX says we will be under the right rear/entrance of the jet max. That's ideal in winter if the moisture is available. Soundings are saturated through a deep DGZ.

Oh it's the ARW version of the WRF I sometimes like. NAM is still my most used, simply because more charts at more levels are available. So my head says a dusting for KCHA but my heart is now thinking 2 inches could happen. Probably improves north and east from here, assuming the precipitation shield makes it. Plateu and now parts of Middle Tennessee also look good.

Less than 24 hours away. Mahomes Magic time!

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I just want to see someone pull off the rare feat of going much AN for temps and normal snowfall for the month of February.  Chattanooga may already be there.  They could do much above for temps and snow.  LOL.  

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I just want to see someone pull off the rare feat of going much AN for temps and normal snowfall for the month of February.  Chattanooga may already be there.  They could do much above for temps and snow.  LOL.  


That would be interesting


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KCHA is already at season snow climo. Might go AN snow tomorrow! We are definitely playing with casino chips at this point. Along with record rainfall pace and ludicrous AN temps. :popcorn:

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16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Maybe 6 - 8 AM is what I would guess for Knoxville area

Another day off for the kids.  Between the flu and flooding I think they are down to only a couple of "snow" days left.

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Another day off for the kids.  Between the flu and flooding I think they are down to only a couple of "snow" days left.

KCS has 3 days left


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Really curious to see if MRX starts issuing advisories or just goes with their whole "Sun Angle" obsession.  While I understand that does play a part, from my experience even in mid March I've seen snow accumulate on roads.

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Inverted trough is now in the isobars. My chips are mostly snow if not all snow.


I’ve been waiting all day for this post. This might turn into something.....


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Really curious to see if MRX starts issuing advisories or just goes with their whole "Sun Angle" obsession.  While I understand that does play a part, from my experience even in mid March I've seen snow accumulate on roads.


I think they go WWA for everyone except Knoxville south Down I-40 and Warnings for the mountains


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