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NorthArlington101

02/21/20 Snow Potential

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Also, FWIW, the 06z EPS was slightly interesting, only in the sense that I think a clear trend emerges.

1582308000-ov7iA2XL4aA.png

1582308000-0bGLT1t3pho.png

Most of the runs that have a storm consistent with what the other models are showing (a moderate snowstorm for the Carolinas) do get snow into at least the central part of our subforum, if not slightly further north. Is it a lot of snow? No. But if the snowier Carolina solutions should be taken seriously, it shows there is an opening for some flakes.

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38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

1582275600-sTU5PECdV2M.png

EURO continues to cave and goes more north/snowier in North Carolina.

I still have 4-5 more runs for that to jog 20ish miles north. I will hold out hope for seeing flakes til the bitter end

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6 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

18z Nam is looking good:snowing:

My confused emoji aside (you said this with barely any of it out) I would expect this to come north a bit more... confluence looks to have backed off and is weaker in general. We'll see.

  • Weenie 1

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6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

My confused emoji aside (you said this with barely any of it out) I would expect this to come north a bit more... confluence looks to have backed off and is weaker in general. We'll see.

looks like it went a bit south. welp

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5 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

looks like it went a bit south. welp

Yeah, probably about a ~20-30 mile jump south. Would just be noise if some of us in Central VA didn't need every mile.

it actually bumped the heavy stuff a hair more north, but it's a pretty strong cutoff. still close...

1582264800-1cYGYmdLVPs.png

I can hear DT honking from my house

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36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is the upgraded National Blend of Models product, right? 

I do not know.

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Nobody from OBX to Raleigh is seeing more than 4 or 5 inches. Those snow maps are absurd. Has me getting 12in or more. Never going to happen. It is interesting though the light showers that we've had on and off today in North Eastern North Carolina have contained sleet pellets. Shows you it's getting colder on top.

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48 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Nobody from OBX to Raleigh is seeing more than 4 or 5 inches. Those snow maps are absurd. Has me getting 12in or more. Never going to happen. It is interesting though the light showers that we've had on and off today in North Eastern North Carolina have contained sleet pellets. Shows you it's getting colder on top.

Idk . I'm betting many  areas in the higher qpf zones just away from the beaches see 6"+ easy with lollies of 8" +. Most snow will be falling after dark with surface 30-34 range dropping a bit overnight and good rates and banding features most likely . Not to mention 10 hours or more duration for many . Good luck and enjoy!

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Idk . I'm betting many  areas in the higher qpf zones just away from the beaches see 6"+ easy with lollies of 8" +. Most snow will be falling after dark with surface 30-34 range dropping a bit overnight and good rates and banding features most likely . Not to mention 10 hours or more duration for many . Good luck and enjoy!

The only thing showing that at this point anymore is the NAMs...we'll see.

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2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Nice to have something to follow

its High Pressure watching time to see if it can relax to about 30.25 come crunch time 

Yeah if we're willing to chase to Central North North Carolina lol

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53 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah if we're willing to chase to Central North North Carolina lol

Then go play In 5-15 day  everything and nothing fantasy land 

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DT messaged me on Facebook because I told him I thought he’s basing his forecast off the NAM. We’re currently having a back and forth on Facebook messenger lol

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1 hour ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

DT messaged me on Facebook because I told him I thought he’s basing his forecast off the NAM. We’re currently having a back and forth on Facebook messenger lol

I don’t remember very positive things towards our new stations last December, (no one in particular if i remember correctly, just them in general) because none of the models were getting anything right, but the NAM did, and the news stations kept bumping up their totals as the night went on. Afterwards they apologized multiple times, and it was just... I’m sure he loves the NAM.

Edit: Already going after them...

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13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Euro joins rest of guidance with upping snow totals down south   Even gets stray flakes into Md . Nams ftw lol

 

 

 

You realize the NAMS still show 7+ and in the case of 12k, a foot right? Let’s see what happens but I wouldn’t call it a win overall. 

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On another note, DT is now being cordial with me and showing meteorologists who are predicting even more than he is..some guy names Jamey Singleton lol

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