• Member Statistics

    15,777
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
NorthArlington101

02/21/20 Snow Potential

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

The Great Beethoven just made an appearance in the SE forum.  We'll be talking about it in hushed whispers for many years to come.

He's overrated.  The GFS made that clear.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I'll be here for you when the inevitable happens.   

Anybody buying into this is brave.  Crazy.  But brave.  And I salute you.    I'll be around for the counseling.  

I’m just a holler away, too.

newyork_newyorkcity_museum_1427596_o.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Snowchaser said:

 Guys this was the forecast by accuweather within 36 hours of the 2018 snowstorm. They were calling for maybe 1-2” in Charlottesville and 1” for Richmond. As you can see Charlottesville got around 12” inches and Richmond got around 12” inches as well. Heavy snowfall even got into Colonial Beach. 

(Things can and will CHANGE and this is a great example of that.)

#weenies 

 

6DEA71CF-D888-49DD-B93C-D459A614277E.jpeg

F9552F3B-AA93-48E9-8030-49994D1B9CB9.png

 The NAM caught on that Saturday morning, about 24 hrs before the event. The other models followed that afternoon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Snowchaser said:

DT is saying 1” for Charlottesville, 1-2” for Richmond and 3-5” for Raleigh :wacko:

5A501E31-2654-45B5-9818-F29E6DAEA4C0.jpeg

 Seems to be a bit of disagreement on the significance of the event.

From Raleigh AFD-

Snow amounts continue to remain highly uncertain in this event, however, thinking that raw model output remains way too high in this scenario. Several limiting factors remain at work, including: (1.) Persistent above freezing surface temperatures that will help temper/melt the majority of the snowfall. The exception to the rule may be areas closer to the VA/NC border, however, these are the areas that will likely see far less QPF throughout the event (2.) 10:1 snow to liquid ratios are not likely in an event like this, expect closer to 3:1 at precipitation changeover onset, 5:1 toward the middle of the event, and perhaps ending in vicinity of 10:1 if we are lucky. (3.) While the CAA process will be key in the original changeover, it will also become the ultimate limiting factor through the frozen ptype portion of the event. Gradual drying is expected to persistently take place in the lower-third of the boundary layer as the cold air slides south into the region. This will work to greatly reduce QPF from northwest to southeast in general. Higher amounts of QPF in the southeast will remain, however, dewpoints in the middle 30s will keep widespread snowfall accumulations from occurring. With these limiting factor in mind, have shifted the geographic location of accumulations a bit further north and west. Amounts are down a bit also with this run, topping out in the 1 - 2" range in northeastern Coastal Plain. From there, if you follow the US-64 further west, expect accumulations in vicinity of an inch with lesser amounts as you progress west of US-1 and south of US-64.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

How exactly did the EURO cave? NAM is putting down ridiculous snow amounts.

0z Euro has a reasonable 1-4" verbatim.

I certainly wouldn't say it caved per se...however, the Euro had virtually zero precip at 12 z yesterday for anything north of RDU and only about 0.05 at RDU with basically no snow in the entire state of NC.  I don't believe the 1" QPF totals the nam is spitting out but I see that as a pretty big miss by the Euro at 60 hrs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I certainly wouldn't say it caved per se...however, the Euro had virtually zero precip at 12 z yesterday for anything north of RDU and only about 0.05 at RDU with basically no snow in the entire state of NC.  I don't believe the 1" QPF totals the nam is spitting out but I see that as a pretty big miss by the Euro at 60 hrs.

I would have to go back and look but when i was still "interested" Monday and into Tuesday am, pretty sure the Euro was depicting 1-2" down that way. Maybe 12z yesterday was an off(drier) run. It has generally juiced up a little over the past 2 days for sure. This "cave" talk is mostly silliness though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I would have to go back and look but when i was still "interested" Monday and into Tuesday am, pretty sure the Euro was depicting 1-2" down that way. Maybe 12z yesterday was an off(drier) run. It has juiced up a little over the past 2 days for sure. This "cave" talk is mostly silliness though.

I've been following since my brother lives down SE of RDU so I'm currently living vicariously through him (sad I know).  Both the Euro and Ukie have been suppressed throughout this week with never any kind of "hit" anywhere in NC with the American models showing more potential.  I clicked back through the previous runs and by far last nights 0z was the best.  Could you imagine what would have happened to our board had the below happened at 60 HRs before the storm? lol

 

1521969135_qpf_006h.us_maNC0Z.thumb.png.21e3062c372dc997325e43a95727032b.png

 

 1323231124_qpf_006h.us_maNC.thumb.png.17002e81ab2b211ee5bc235252935f84.png

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I would have to go back and look but when i was still "interested" Monday and into Tuesday am, pretty sure the Euro was depicting 1-2" down that way. Maybe 12z yesterday was an off(drier) run. It has generally juiced up a little over the past 2 days for sure. This "cave" talk is mostly silliness though.

I don’t know about snowmaps but Euro basically had no snow of any significance as late as yesterday.  NAM was showing a storm.  Now Euro is on board.

Euro at 12z yesterday.  

64AAE35E-C72E-46FC-99B1-992BA032C185.thumb.png.4a588d401e50e8e74d4912004352d617.png

NAM at 12z yesterday.  

AE4C9683-BF06-4157-8903-4C652D3287D6.thumb.png.96682fbf18b650bbaa07972624fe69c9.png

Euro at 6z today.  Looks a lot more like the NAM.   

A133D3FC-71B3-4E64-828E-ABA3390572BC.thumb.png.a059efb95e85c97b2d39a219e1c315d4.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I don’t know about snowmaps but Euro basically had no snow of any significance as late as yesterday.  NAM was showing a storm.  Now Euro is on board.

Euro at 12z yesterday.  

64AAE35E-C72E-46FC-99B1-992BA032C185.thumb.png.4a588d401e50e8e74d4912004352d617.png

NAM at 12z yesterday.  

AE4C9683-BF06-4157-8903-4C652D3287D6.thumb.png.96682fbf18b650bbaa07972624fe69c9.png

Euro at 6z today.  Looks a lot more like the NAM.   

A133D3FC-71B3-4E64-828E-ABA3390572BC.thumb.png.a059efb95e85c97b2d39a219e1c315d4.png

I generally agree in the overall synoptics of the storm...People just need to remember that the NAM, especially 12K, almost always overdoes QPF on southern stream storms.  Take the 3K snow depth map and I think itll be close to verifying

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I teach right here. Haven't had a snow day all year!

 

I need a 10 mile shift north please and thank you. 


This reminds me somewhat of the December 2018 storm, last minute shifts North?

23A9366A-9788-4265-B0F9-88C114CE367A.thumb.jpeg.f8cef1b04d3c77d7d7f0e61792a3b3ad.jpeg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, VA-Snow said:

I teach right here. Haven't had a snow day all year!

 

I need a 10 mile shift north please and thank you. 


This reminds me somewhat of the December 2018 storm, last minute shifts North?

23A9366A-9788-4265-B0F9-88C114CE367A.thumb.jpeg.f8cef1b04d3c77d7d7f0e61792a3b3ad.jpeg

Where is that...Stafford County?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Where is that...Stafford County?

Yes, south end almost into Fburg and King George

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I live in Woodbridge, just north of Dale City....we will probably miss it 

I live in Woodbridge too BUT work in Stafford, so hey, even if I don't see it, I get some benefits of a day off? :lol:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WB 12Z 3K NAM...good luck southern folks!  It will be a coup for the NAM if correct.  ICON at 12Z is third of this in a much smaller area in east central NC, VA border.

 

6691D3F3-DBA3-46E1-8191-66BC50E97A7C.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought it looked like a 1-2" deal for east central NC a day or so ago, and I would say that still looks about right. Maybe an area of 3 or a tad more in the jack zone if some decent banding sets up. It wont be very cold on the front end and this thing wont be hanging around. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.