• Member Statistics

    16,052
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    David herry
    Newest Member
    David herry
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
mackerel_sky

2/8/2020 Snow Event

Recommended Posts

Im skeptical about much in the way of accumulation outside the higher elevations in GA. Even Gainesville should be in the mid to upper 30s most of tomorrow.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

From ATL:

 

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 305 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 .

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Mostly cloudy skies expected to break up this evening allowing temps to fall to the low- to mid-30s tonight and tomorrow morning. A h850 shortwave is expected to sweep through the southeast tonight and tomorrow morning, with relatively smaller PWAT values but enough to produce a tenth to a half an inch across the northern CWA. With temps just above the surface below freezing this means winter precip will be involved, and even though QPF is expected to be low, it will be enough with an approximate 7.5:1 snow-water ratio for minor snow accumulations to occur with a rain/snow mix across North Georgia. Only about a tenth to a half inch of snow accumulations outside the mountainous regions are expected but with rains and warm ground temps, if anything falls it probably won`t stick around long. In mountainous regions up north this could be a different story. Embedded in colder temps, areas of NW Georgia could see 1-2 inches, with higher elevations along the spine and mountaintops of the GA Blue Ridge mountains could see up to 4 inches in some isolated locations. This has prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for the majority of Northern GA. Temps may climb into the upper 30s before the transition from snow to rain occurs with some slick spots possible where any accumulations occur. Temps tomorrow night will also drop back into the low-30s for N GA, which may continue to cause some slick spots Sunday morning.

Crazy how far apart them and GSP are for the mountain counties in NE GA. Here in Rabun GSP forecast is for up to an inch, while Atlanta is saying that lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GSP

Right now...the best chance looks to be over extreme NE GA and the
higher elevations of the srn and central NC mtns. Expect about an
inch of snow thru 18z over Rabun and nrn Habersham counties...while
the NC elevations abv 3.5 Kft will likely see 1-3 inches by the time
it stops snowing there...or arnd midnight. Thus...have a two segment
WW.Y for these two areas based on thermal timing and elevation.
There could also be brief -snsh or a -ra/sn mix reaching the ground
over the entire wrn half of the FA including AND, GRD, GSP, and
HKY...yet sfc temps shud be too warm by then (~15z) to support any
sigfnt accum. Min temps will fall below freezing across all locales
tonight and slowly warm during the day with clouds and sct precip
lingering. Highs will be held abt 10 degrees below normal. overnight
mins Sat will also drop below freezing across the entire FA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Crazy how far apart them and GSP are for the mountain counties in NE GA. Here in Rabun GSP forecast is for up to an inch, while Atlanta is saying that lol

Yep a 50% chance of snow and 50% chance of rain. What could go wrong lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

at the risk of sounding too much like a weenie; i'm not buying the 33-35 surface temps for NE GA, upstate SC.  All the models have temps around -4 to -6c at 850mb and -2 to -3c all the way down to 950mb.  If it starts ripping snow with that profile, we're quickly dropping to 32/33, imo.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z Rgem is out. Clobbers N. Ga. Also appears an hour or two faster with onset compared to other models. The below image is valid for 11am tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2020-02-07 at 4.02.59 PM.png

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Im skeptical about much in the way of accumulation outside the higher elevations in GA. Even Gainesville should be in the mid to upper 30s most of tomorrow.

I dont agree with this. Temps should be at or even below freezing around Gainesville for a good portion of the event. Temps will already be 32 to 34 at onset  with wetbulbs around 30 12z to 14z..and with steady precip temps wont move much. 

Take it with a grain of salt but its Interesting to note the hrrr and 3km nam have narrow areas as high as 0.40 to 0.45 on the 18z runs. Would be something if that planned out. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

18z Rgem is out. Clobbers N. Ga. Also appears an hour or two faster with onset compared to other models. The below image is valid for 11am tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2020-02-07 at 4.02.59 PM.png

To add to this, there is already moisture forming in AL! Definitely earlier arrival, the better for us! RPM or whatever “ futurecast” radar is, looks really juicy for us tomorrow, r/s gradient on 85, of course

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m telling y’all, they just showed the full run of futurecast radar, and it puts it down pretty good over my backyard for 4-5 hours, and would probably be good for us to get 1-2”, it’s coming down pretty good, according to that model! Anybody got a cool animated radar showing us getting plastered with snow??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My TWC local forecast has R/S mix tomorrow, snow accumulations less than an inch! Big win this winter, all day, everyday!:snowing:

Im telling y’all, this has pretty good bust potential,! I swear watching WYFF 4 and CJ, every time he shows futurecast radar, it’s snowier than the last run, and it’s almost like he can’t believe it as he’s talking over it!! It’s great!!:maprain::weenie:

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I worry about precip rates tomorrow. The snow is going to have to come down very hard for it to accumulate with such marginal temps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

NM, just saw CJ Facebook post, downplaying as a non event, rain snow mix! Man, he’s the best!:ph34r:

If the timing is just a litttle faster he’s going to eat a plate full of bird stew. However, I’ll take another trace as long as brick gets shutout this winter :guitar:

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

My TWC local forecast has R/S mix tomorrow, snow accumulations less than an inch! Big win this winter, all day, everyday!:snowing:

Im telling y’all, this has pretty good bust potential,! I swear watching WYFF 4 and CJ, every time he shows futurecast radar, it’s snowier than the last run, and it’s almost like he can’t believe it as he’s talking over it!! It’s great!!:maprain::weenie:

Whatever map Cedric just put out live on the air had Moderate snow north of 85 and a cold cold rain over our heads :loon:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

This was probably already posted but pretty good model consensus. You don’t want to be in the bullseye 14 hours out!9D85CCC3-7680-41C7-BC73-24BFBBEF94CD.png.8f0cdbb696817ea0d8d1756c31200a22.png

Check please!

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Latest HRR at the end of its run, juicy...:weenie: valid for 10am Saturday morning. Gainesville is gonna get plastered!

Screen Shot 2020-02-07 at 5.23.12 PM.png

Should have a full head of steam as it rolls into SC. HRRR seems a bit faster with onset

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

at the risk of sounding too much like a weenie; i'm not buying the 33-35 surface temps for NE GA, upstate SC.  All the models have temps around -4 to -6c at 850mb and -2 to -3c all the way down to 950mb.  If it starts ripping snow with that profile, we're quickly dropping to 32/33, imo.

Spot on post here, especially for N GA into the western upstate.  The warm layer is very shallow at the surface on the soundings.

The forcing for rising motion is small in aerial coverage, but it maximizes across N GA into the western upstate (850mb warm advection and frontogenesis). These charts actually argue for the ‘heaviest’ snow potential to be south of the mountain areas

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

My TWC local forecast has R/S mix tomorrow, snow accumulations less than an inch! Big win this winter, all day, everyday!:snowing:

Im telling y’all, this has pretty good bust potential,! I swear watching WYFF 4 and CJ, every time he shows futurecast radar, it’s snowier than the last run, and it’s almost like he can’t believe it as he’s talking over it!! It’s great!!:maprain::weenie:

well thats the weather channel for you, why I never watch it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

you know there is wwa all around Asheville and Buncombe County,  I would think looking at the future radar for tomorrow we would also be under the wwa.  looks good for Buncombe according to that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.