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Itstrainingtime

Central PA - February 2020

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Next week we are getting a big rainstorm and temps potentially in the mid 60s.

CTP is starting to punt winter. From this afternoon’s discussion:

Looking into the future, it appears there may be another brief
dip in temperatures next weekend, but the long-range guidance
indicates a predominantly mild pattern settling in. As such, at
risk of overstepping my bounds as a meteorologist, it seems
grass and flowers may start greening up as meteorological spring
starts.[/quote]

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

This was a big point of my post a week or so ago....about what I would consider  low scores in model late MR or LR tracks (at least for PA) compared to what actually happened.  A lot of those that went over Southern or CentraI PA were shown under us 7-10 days out.  Not all the storms were cutters as a lot of them hit a wall when they got to our latitude but the amount of them that went almost right over us was extraordinaire to me.

The more you get into the longer range the more heavily the computer models factor in climatology, especially in the ensembles but also operationals. We've been running an exceptionally positive AO/stratospheric PV for the majority of the winter after Jan 1 to this point. Not very often you see the pattern we have, and even less often you see it last as long as it has. So the models are factoring in the climo more in the longer range and try to break down the pattern but the reality ends up the pattern hasn't broke down, specifically in the AO realm in this winter's case. That's why you often see the "always 10 days away" debacle with pattern changes. This was especially noticeable about a month ago, in the dead of winter when we're at our coldest. Now that climo is starting to warm rapidly getting into March you'll notice we haven't seen as many :weenie: long range snow events on the models lately.

Typically a long lasting pattern does break down, but often not as fast as the models try to break it down... but usually it doesn't last as long as this has. My general concern lately has been that given how strong the PV has been, it may not start to finally break down until it's too late (late March/early April). We see the EPO flip postive/PNA negative next week and maintain the +AO so we're probably throwing the first week of March away with that as we ridge in the east in the wake of this cold shot. The first half of March isn't too hard to work up a storm for us with a half decent pattern, but it gets a lot harder to do late in the month. 

One can debate whether the dog is wagging the tail or the tail is wagging the dog in terms of how the +AO came to be and how it's maintaining itself, but this has been primarily the thing that has wrecked our winter in my opinion. This current storm was the closest thing since the beginning of the month we've had to a coastal, and you can see the other teleconnections (PNA,EPO, and NAO) are all pretty close to neutral currently but the AO, while off it's exceptionally high values is still running pretty positive. Just not enough to suppress the storm track. 

 

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If you want to see a blizzard and or snow just watch station 19 and Greys Anatomy tonight. My wife loves those shows so as a good husband I’m watching instead of watching my basketball games and enjoying seeing TV snow at the very least this winter. :D:D well it’s desperation time. 

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20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That happened weeks ago. They've mostly given up now. 

:) well then I’ll join them chase in March for me. My work allows me to travel I’ll find a client site that is gearing up for snow or Tug Hill. Geez what I need to do this year.  

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Got whacked with a snow squall not too long ago that added a half inch to the day. Roads are trashed. 1.3" on the day.

That snow squall line is taking aim at H-burg and it might make it. 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Got whacked with a snow squall not too long ago that added a half inch to the day. Roads are trashed. 1.3" on the day.

That snow squall line is taking aim at H-burg and it might make it. 

Nice! Congrats!

The squall line has made it now to me in Marysville!

CTP extended their Special Weather Statement to include parts of the LSV.

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8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Nice! Congrats!

The squall line has made it now to me in Marysville!

CTP extended their Special Weather Statement to include parts of the LSV.

I might actually need to brush a little snow off of the windshield in the morning!

This is only a “partial coating”. Hopefully I will be able to handle the snow removal!

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Got whacked with a snow squall not too long ago that added a half inch to the day. Roads are trashed. 1.3" on the day.

That snow squall line is taking aim at H-burg and it might make it. 

 

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Nice! Congrats!

The squall line has made it now to me in Marysville!

CTP extended their Special Weather Statement to include parts of the LSV.

 

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I might actually need to brush a little snow off of the windshield in the morning!

This is only a “partial coating”. Hopefully I will be able to handle the snow removal!

Apparently it made it to Tamaqua. Up for an early bird run to Philly and I have about a half inch of unexpected snow on the ground...

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Some snow north of Williamsport. 15 north from Hepburnville to Trout run shut down this morning due to snow and accidents.

Nothing here but just a few flurries.

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Just now, canderson said:

I saw some snowflakes - maybe 250 total - driving into work this morning. That's a win this winter. 

LOL.  I can actually see some flakes on the ground now...where there is ice left over from the last rain. I am having an ice topper over here. 

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

I saw some snowflakes - maybe 250 total - driving into work this morning. That's a win this winter. 

 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

LOL.  I can actually see some flakes on the ground now...where there is ice left over from the last rain. I am having an ice topper over here. 

Between my drive to work and the death band that came through here a while ago I'm probably up to about 255 snowflakes today. 

Bubbler, sounds like you're rapidly approaching measurable! 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Between my drive to work and the death band that came through here a while ago I'm probably up to about 255 snowflakes today. 

Bubbler, sounds like you're rapidly approaching measurable! 

LOL, its just random flakes sticking to the ice.   Every now and then the snow bursts up to sn ----  (minus, minus, minus)  but is mostly just occasionally flurries.  

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4 hours ago, canderson said:

I saw some snowflakes - maybe 250 total - driving into work this morning. That's a win this winter. 

Look at Rain Man here counting snow flakes. 

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The 0z Euro was close to producing a nice winter storm next Friday. The look at 500mb was more impressive than what the surface produced. Verbatim, It did bring some snow to parts of the LSV , but brought more snow to NJ & New England.

The Canadian also had a similar evolution last night & crushed southern New England with snow.

Here is a look at the Euro at 500 & surface.

 

45643B8C-A97F-4A43-BFE1-30C0EABF7E0F.png

20E1AD69-E8C1-45FA-9DDC-643168F03E05.png

C8D13E1A-B4F8-4A43-8176-B5BF3E673F62.png

5B474793-57A4-4CDF-95D8-5EC18B217602.png

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8 hours ago, canderson said:

Saturday morning is probably going to be the last coldest one we see this season. Looks balmy and then back to normal for March. 

How dare you ignore the March 12th snow storm on the 6Z GFS? This year I always have to give the time stamp because its usually gone 6 hours later. 

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It also looks like some of us will have the chance at a snow shower by this afternoon. There is a decent line forming now to the north of I 80 that is dropping to the south.

Maybe a “light coating” is possible for some of us ?

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

How dare you ignore the March 12th snow storm on the 6Z GFS? This year I always have to give the time stamp because its usually gone 6 hours later. 

I don’t think we are done. There are threats popping up starting later this week & beyond.

For Example, I just posted last nights Euro for the chance later next week.

I think that we will get at least 1 minor to moderate snow event before we close the shop for the season.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I don’t think we are done. There are threats popping up starting later this week & beyond.

For Example, I just posted last nights Euro for the chance later next week.

I think that we will get at least 1 minor to moderate snow event before we close the shop for the season.

Most winters/early springs I would totally agree but hard to assume as such this year.  But not punting the chance.  I have punted there being a long period of cold and blowing snow anytime until next Winter.  If we get snow I think its going to be a slop fest. 

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