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Central PA - February 2020


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35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The warm comes in full hog on Monday.  You may be spared some of it up there and there could be a sneaky mixed event between two warm episodes next week (model reading).

 

 

Yeah, I saw that temps may only get into the low 50's up here.

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The 12z GFS was a winter weather dream run. Besides the mixed potentials later next week, it has 2 more winter events over the next 2 weeks.

First, it has a minor Clipper type storm next weekend. 

Then, it showed a major Miller B storm for Valentine’s Eve.

It’s Shocking (inset sarcasm font...) to see that as soon as everyone (not in here necessarily) cancelled Winter, we could be looking at an exciting 2 weeks of tracking. 

Thank you Mr. EPO !

 

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12z Euro had a boatload of freezing rain with that second(ish) wave of low pressure late week and even some frozen at the end of the first wave and the start of the second. A press of cold air is becoming evident with a high sliding to the north on the models mid-week. How much of a press of cold will obviously determine what kind of p-type issues we have along with the track of the second low pressure wave, which would appear to be the primary event for widespread winter weather potential. 12z GFS relatively on it's own so far for the 12z model cycle tracking the low up the coast, as ensemble guidance seems to be currently more supportive of the low track the Euro and Canadian take with this. All have varying degrees of mixing. I know the Euro has shown what the 12z GFS has in a couple previous runs the last few days. A more progressive solution in a progressive themed winter certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility, and that would help us in that scenario. 

There's going to be a lot to resolve the next few days. 

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I'm taking a 9.6" total for the winter into February with the largest snowfall being 2.1". Going back to 2000, the only worse start to date was 06-07. Other horrendous winters of note in that time frame.. 01-02, 11-12, and 15-16 all had January warning level snowfall events here.. with 01-02 and 15-16 having double digit ones. Pretty special level of bad so far lol. 

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11 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm taking a 9.6" total for the winter into February with the largest snowfall being 2.1". Going back to 2000, the only worse start to date was 06-07. Other horrendous winters of note in that time frame.. 01-02, 11-12, and 15-16 all had January warning level snowfall events here.. with 01-02 and 15-16 having double digit ones. Pretty special level of bad so far lol. 

We have EXACTLY the same seasonal total so far but got to it much differently as my biggest single event was 5.1" with a good bit more than that just to my southwest.

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

12z Euro had a boatload of freezing rain with that second(ish) wave of low pressure late week and even some frozen at the end of the first wave and the start of the second. A press of cold air is becoming evident with a high sliding to the north on the models mid-week. How much of a press of cold will obviously determine what kind of p-type issues we have along with the track of the second low pressure wave, which would appear to be the primary event for widespread winter weather potential. 12z GFS relatively on it's own so far for the 12z model cycle tracking the low up the coast, as ensemble guidance seems to be currently more supportive of the low track the Euro and Canadian take with this. All have varying degrees of mixing. I know the Euro has shown what the 12z GFS has in a couple previous runs the last few days. A more progressive solution in a progressive themed winter certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility, and that would help us in that scenario. 

There's going to be a lot to resolve the next few days. 

Yes, the Euro did look icy for CTP later this week.

51D6161E-23C8-41C3-B2F1-1082AB971D5A.png

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Blizz, all I will say about next week's threat is I think it's better when we have cold air pressing in rather than retreating. I do believe this could potentially trend a little better still...

Yes, it’s nice to have cold air pressing in this time for a change this year.

I agree, sometimes the models underestimate the cold air press. 

Also, once the cold pushes in, I’m not so sure that it will retreat much for that last storm for Friday am. 

Usually with this set up, each storm will ride up the boundary a little further south & east than the previous one.

It should be an interesting week of tracking.

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We over 1/2" of precip today.  Most of it steady rain.  A bit more than modeled.   When the rain started coming down with some intensity it would start to turn to snow but then back off as the intensity dropped. 

It's been raining pretty decent over this way the past 2 hours but I'm still shy of .25". I didn't see any snow last evening or today. 

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47 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's been raining pretty decent over this way the past 2 hours but I'm still shy of .25". I didn't see any snow last evening or today. 

I did not see any model solutions that showed an all day rain..  At least from 10am on here.  Was quite surprised.  We had intended to go to an outdoor event in Chambersburg and was a total no go since it so miserable. 

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035

Any snow out your way currently?

What are your thoughts for snow possibilities in your area & the Susquehanna Valley?

Yea it is snowing here with a light dusting on the ground and some heavier stuff about to move through. I'm sure something will survive over the mountains, and there might be some warm advection precip generated overnight into tomorrow before the warmer air moves in later tomorrow. This stuff moving through now might get eaten up off the mountains though. 

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You guys to the south who got 0.25 to 0.50" of rainfall were on quite the gradient.  I only got 0.03" of rainfall today.  Looking forward to the wintry developments for later this week and maybe some mood flakes tomorrow??  Today was the 3rd consecutive Saturday that was inclement.  Remember, 3 weeks ago today was the great snow/sleet storm of Jan 2020.  (lol)

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10 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Snow showers over night. Amounted mostly to a dusting on the cars.

Brisket Chili and chicken for the Super Bowl tonight.

That’s great!

We are making Chicken Chili & Italian Brisket sandwiches for the Super Bowl.

Today could be nice with “snow TV” out the window & the game later on !

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