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John1122

February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

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It appears that the NW expansion of the precipitation shield that we were seeing in runs yesterday and earlier today has ceased.  Hoping that trend will start back up so that our friends to the north and west get in on the action.

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7 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

It appears that the NW expansion of the precipitation shield that we were seeing in runs yesterday and earlier today has ceased.  Hoping that trend will start back up so that our friends to the north and west get in on the action.

It's not an expansion of the precip shield as much as it is the path the 925 energy takes to our south. The circles area is the energy on the 00z NAM..as it crosses from MS into AL/GA line, it then transfers off the SE Carolina coast. Starting with the 18z (now 00z), the NAM has ticked slightly south with its path before transfer..taking the moisture return and dynamics to closer along the TN border. GFS is very similar to the NAM, while the 18z Euro took a big step in that direction (it would have looked very similar on snow output but it is about 4-6 degrees warmer right at the surface). How that piece treks south of us, will determine the haves and have nots.

20200218_215623.jpg

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Not trying to beat this into the ground but let’s not forget the Precip shield has been further NW the last several systems than what was shown.


.

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At what point will NWS start putting out advisories/watches?

I'd say it's possible southern valley tonight after 0z, SPS at minimum, but more likely by 12Z tomorrow if modeling by NAM holds and globals trend as they have in small steps today. 

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3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I'd say it's possible southern valley tonight after 0z, SPS at minimum, but more likely by 12Z tomorrow if modeling by NAM holds and globals trend as they have in small steps today. 

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I could see HUN doing something (possibly BNA), but until (or if) the Euro lowers the surface temps I dont see MRX pulling the trigger. SPS yes, Watch no.

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I definitely don't expect any watches as in Winter Storm Watches, I would not be surprised to see WWA for far southern counties after 0Z, I know MRX hugs Euro and it's thermals are not great but with neighboring CWA pressure for continuity and the model trends I could see it, however it's far more likely tomorrow after 12z.

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I am liking our chances over the next few weeks; hopefully you guys in the Eastern Valley can score with the system this week, I think it will be primarily south of my area this time around but the latest GFS spits out a decent chance next week for the Middle TN area 

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Models showing some potential around 177 on the 12z run of the GFS.  The CMC is close.  Looks like potential for a phase.  Timing is everything so it may take some time to work that out.  0z Euro had the northern feature but didn't phase it.

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Next week is starting to look like Cutter City. GFS is still OK but many of its GEFS members cut. Euro cuts. Enjoy today!

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Whatever happens, it better not mess up severe season, lol! At any rate it may be the +PNA that saves winter. Relentless western Canada trough is finally ridging, while Alaska does too. All that is great through March; then in April, my priorities change sharply.

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Euro is back on board. I'll stick with I-40 north, Plateau and Mountains. Should be TRI if that holds. Cold drizzle KCHA, lol!

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16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro throwing out an interesting pattern from day 5 on:

giphy.gif

 

giphy.gif

The 12z Euro operational has four potential systems of varying strength.  Has an inland/Apps runner, a system that dives into the back of that, a northern stream system, and another northern stream system right after that waiting in the Plains.  We have done reasonably well when the Feb pattern gets cold injected into an active storm pattern.  Let's hope that continues.  Been pretty fun.

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14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro operational has four potential systems of varying strength.  Has an inland/Apps runner, a system that dives into the back of that, a northern stream system, and another northern stream system right after that waiting in the Plains.  We have done reasonably well when the Feb pattern gets cold injected into an active storm pattern.  Let's hope that continues.  Been pretty fun.

I guess if this pattern continues will be harder and harder to bad mouth the Winter this year.

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2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

I guess if this pattern continues will be harder and harder to bad mouth the Winter this year.

Temps...we will bad mouthed for many years.  Been terrible.  LOL.  This is what an active STJ can do if any cold can get into a rainy pattern.  We have said it some on this forum...it can and does snow during a warm pattern.  It is one reason most folks really stay clear of making snow predictions for winter.  Snow doesn't always correlate to temps.  That said, most areas north of I-40 will likely still finish BN for snowfall and maybe well below.  However, definitely makes events like these easier to appreciate.  BTW, I only got about an inch of snow from this.  Chattanooga has more snowfall this season than I do and awesome for. them. They are always great to cheer for those who live in locations which get more snow on average.  For TRI, not a big storm.  JC might have gotten a bit more.  However, after staring at d10-15 patterns for two months, it is nice to see three events that had frozen precip.  Still an underperforming winter for areas north of 40(and likely western forum areas have not too well - @AMZ8990 country).   Looks like one more window between ~ Feb 27-March1.  EPS wants to dump the trough West around d12(but still has the aforementioned window).  Little bit of a break in continuity, but I am suspicious anytime it digs into the Southwest - I won't be surprised if the current pattern just continues with periodic troughs and cold.  Its control holds with continuity by having an extended window for winter weather after Feb 27 to basically the end of the run.  Main problem is the Weeklies ran off the 0z run, and that means they are less reliable than normal as 12z broke to a different pattern late in the run.  Just glad we have had something to track and maybe still have have a few more events to track.  One last thought, it is possible that the EPS is back to its old games from November, but we will see.  Who knows.  Good thing is the operational is better than the d10-15 which is a nice change!

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Going to make one edit.  The Feb 27th window may actually last until March 3rd.  The EPS hints at another system around March 2nd.  Big trough rolls through on the 27th with a chance at an inland runner, but could also be a cutter.  Then, as the Euro operational depicts at 12z, the cold pours into the East, and a few northern stream features(not seen many of those this winter) have potential to work into the pattern. As that cold matures or leaves, seems there is a window for another slider or one that phases.   Per the 12z, there are varying chances embedded in that window at the front end of the window, the middle, and as it departs.  Hopefully, we get a couple of more chances to track.  The first chance is now under 7 days out.  I think our best chances come as the cold spreads into the area and the northern stream sends a few pieces of energy into cold that is already in place.  Might have a chance to be our strongest cold(by anomaly) all winter.

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ECMWF weeklies concur with the above posts. 12Z EPS just out is not quite as cold 11-15 day with less +PNA; and, the weeklies are based on 00Z with quality +PNA. However they are both active and not warm. Tropical drivers include the IO calming down while the West Pac is convecting. See how long it can continue.

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2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

ECMWF weeklies concur with the above posts. 12Z EPS just out is not quite as cold 11-15 day with less +PNA; and, the weeklies are based on 00Z with quality +PNA. However they are both active and not warm. Tropical drivers include the IO calming down while the West Pac is convecting. See how long it can continue.

Thanks for the heads-up.   So, western Pac convection (as long as it is not in phase 6) is not a terrible thing in March, right?  In other words some of the MJO phase(maybe phase 5) that were warm during the heart of winter can actually be cool during later winter and early spring.    Or do you feel that the western Pac is in conflict with the prolonged cold signal?

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I'd like to see an event with temps around 26-29 instead of 32/33.  BL temps always rule the roost. Even being at 32 vs 34 is huge. Maybe not in the cards for the rest of the season though. Today did make me appreciate just how hard it snowed in April 1987 and in a couple of other April events I had. My accumulation today came in two waves when very heavy snow fell at over an inch per hour rates. Less than that and it just snowed on top of the snow but it was melting from underneath at an equal or greater rate of the snow falling.  I had a 3 inch event in April 1997 or 1998 when I got all 3 inches in 1.5 hours of silver dollars. April 1987 was basically 12 hours of silver dollars. We had that today but in shorter bursts.  I had .30 QPF today. Looks like some areas around Knoxville towards Morristown had much more. Close to an inch in some places. I wish I could have given you guys my temps.

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Overnight Euro continues to advertise some chances after day 5:

giphy.gif

giphy.gif

Lots of moving pieces, but as John pointed out, BL temps look to be a concern. 

giphy.gif

EPS still likes that idea to. Will be interesting to see how the NAM and other meso-models handle these systems. They look much more consolidated which may give the Euro an edge this time, but fiesty, shorter wavelengths may spice things up a bit. 

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The 0z euro control went bonkers last night with a raging blizzard into the OH Valley Wed-Thursday and a fairly high impact event in west and much of middle. The Ops is similar in 500mb for the same time frame although not as robust although still snows in much of the state. Def something to watch. CMC and GFS don’t show this scenario.

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