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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ukie is a MONSTER hit!!

Thermals are in the lower 40s for coastal SNE lol low position and strength is great though.

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8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Thermals are in the lower 40s for coastal SNE lol low position and strength is great though.

Ukie tends to torch the lower levels way too easy in coastals. Kind of doubt youd have 40F rain with that setup over 128 in MA.  

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Euro is a complete and utter abomination of an abortion. I'm not sure Dr. Dews could have engineered a shittier solution from his humidor of a cave given those players on the field. Each of the several SWs spaced perfectly as to avoid interaction with surgical, maniacal precision.

Its doing that inside of 120hrs, so if the EPS looks like shit, this event is in trouble imo...but I guess you could give it until Wed AM, when all players will be ashore.

 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro is a complete and utter abomination of an abortion. I'm not sure Dr. Dews could have engineered a shittier solution from his humidor of a cave given those players on the field. Each of the several SWs spaced perfectly as to avoid interaction with surgical, maniacal precision.

Its doing that inside of 120hrs, so if the EPS looks like shit, this event is in trouble imo...but I guess you could give it until Wed AM, when all players will be ashore.

 

It's not too bad:

14-km EPS Global Cyclones undefined undefined 120.png

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Trends are showing an elongating Alaskan vortex followed by a poleward building PNA/EPO coupled ridge that produces a -Arctic Oscillation and this transition period will continue to freak out the model solutions in the next 24-36 hours and once the northern stream energy gets better sampled we will have a better idea of the kind of phasing that is real.  AS a building WEST CONUS ridge continues eastward, this should push the storm track towards the BM or just east of it.  I don't think an inland runner is going to be the final track, again not certain, but the way it appears right now that is what it seems like.  Oh I wasn't saying the NAVGEM was right last night.  My point was that if the storm deepens below 975mb before reaching the 40N latitude, the cold air will be present unless the track is west like over CHH.  However, if the storm tracks over the BM instead below 975mb than cold air should be abundant.  Also for those worried about the amount of QPF, this should continue to trend towards a bigger QPF event.  Originating in the Gulf of Mexico, plenty of moisture should be present and the models should slow the movement of the low down as we head towards closing in on the weekend period.  The 12z GFS was only 13 hours of duration for the precip, while the 00z GFS was 18 hours in duration, this should trend towards a longer duration in my opinion.

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7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are we looking at 1-3’ in SNE?

We are talking...a solid... 1 to 3 feet of snow.

Here's...the demon.

Here's...the demon.

Rival the blizzard of '78. Even stronger. 

We're gonna whacked.

 

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The northern stream really needs to dig in and phase of the coast wants to see a big snowfall.  If that doesnt happen then alot of people will see white rain.

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Eps is way better than the op

Euro is once again lost like it has this whole winter.

Double checking, looks like the op is just one of the ots EPS members. EPS has two distinct clusters, one along the BM or inside and way ots. Hypothetically speaking, if the ots cluster is specious then the mean practically sits on Jimmy’s face, exactly like the UK.

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Double checking, looks like the op is just one of the ots EPS members. EPS has two distinct clusters, one along the BM or inside and way ots. Hypothetically speaking, if the ots cluster is specious then the mean practically sits on Jimmy’s face, exactly like the UK.

We need a bombing low. Even the gfs isnt good for the coast. The coast and even just inland areas keep getting screwed. It has been a sad winter.

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What is consistent is that along with the February 2 time frame that is being watched attention could shift to February 9  as the model keeps producing this low in several consecutive runs that seem to amp this storm that wants in most runs to bring a significant snowfall event to someone along the coast.   It is still way too early and could wiff into the wind so easily that hearts in Boston might break especially with comical fantasy but hoped for those kind of amounts that would shutdown SE New England on a whim.

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12 minutes ago, Ogmios said:

What is consistent is that along with the February 2 time frame that is being watched attention could shift to February 9  as the model keeps producing this low in several consecutive runs that seem to amp this storm that wants in most runs to bring a significant snowfall event to someone along the coast.   It is still way too early and could wiff into the wind so easily that hearts in Boston might break especially with comical fantasy but hoped for those kind of amounts that would shutdown SE New England on a whim.

?? 

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33 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We need a bombing low. Even the gfs isnt good for the coast. The coast and even just inland areas keep getting screwed. It has been a sad winter.

Thats why NYC sucks for snow. Time to move.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Guidance is really all over, from a bomb to a whiff. I don't really have a feel either way at this point. 

Yesterday you said you didn’t want to jinx and felt it was coming for all of the region

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yesterday you said you didn’t want to jinx and felt it was coming for all of the region

Maybe I jinxed it?

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