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Rjay

Mid to Long Range Threats

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49 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Makes sense this time 

 

1581984000-POHwHyK1Nms_all.png

Assuming we don’t loose it again, the first week of March is the “best” look we’ve seen since the beginning of December, which isn’t saying much at all. We are going to have to settle for a weaker -EPO than we had early last March. I have to believe this is transient with no -NAO or -AO blocks setting up to trap everything. How long the PAC stays ok is the other question. The PAC jet always seems to rage back and blast any transient EPO/PNA to pieces. Plus the SPV is still strong as hell....

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34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Assuming we don’t loose it again, the first week of March is the “best” look we’ve seen since the beginning of December, which isn’t saying much at all. We are going to have to settle for a weaker -EPO than we had early last March. I have to believe this is transient with no -NAO or -AO blocks setting up to trap everything. How long the PAC stays ok is the other question. The PAC jet always seems to rage back and blast any transient EPO/PNA to pieces. Plus the SPV is still strong as hell....

 

Agreed. 

Probably just a short window. 

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51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Assuming we don’t loose it again, the first week of March is the “best” look we’ve seen since the beginning of December, which isn’t saying much at all. We are going to have to settle for a weaker -EPO than we had early last March. I have to believe this is transient with no -NAO or -AO blocks setting up to trap everything. How long the PAC stays ok is the other question. The PAC jet always seems to rage back and blast any transient EPO/PNA to pieces. Plus the SPV is still strong as hell....

March is a lot more fickle with regard to teleconnections. The rapidly shifting wavelengths can alter their signals particularly if they're very weak. 

And right now they're looking pretty weak to start March. 

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

March is a lot more fickle with regard to teleconnections. The rapidly shifting wavelengths can alter their signals particularly if they're very weak. 

And right now they're looking pretty weak to start March. 

It does not change the fact that there is no high latitude blocking, a strong PAC jet, and a very strong SPV. The first week of March is very likely only transient. 

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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It does not change the fact that there is no high latitude blocking, a strong PAC jet, and a very strong SPV. The first week of March is very likely only transient. 

we had a 7-10 day window last year-locally, we had 3 events which dropped about 12-14 inches of snow allowing us to salvage something from the ratter of last year....

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

So glad that eastern Nc and S.C. might leapfrog over NYC in seasonal snow soon. Was worried about that not happening in this so called winter. 

The icing on the cake!  A southern slider

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

So glad that eastern Nc and S.C. might leapfrog over NYC in seasonal snow soon. Was worried about that not happening in this so called winter. 

I doubt it. I wouldn't be shocked to see a big storm for our area in March.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It does not change the fact that there is no high latitude blocking, a strong PAC jet, and a very strong SPV. The first week of March is very likely only transient. 

And if it's not transient and we get snow ? Will you stop posting ?

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3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Another WET Tuesday 

 

1582588800-PATQG17wxiI.png

Wouldn’t call today a wet Tuesday. Haven’t seen a drop. Later we’ll get mainly a couple of passing light showers. The timeframe for the snow potential is after that wave

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I doubt it. I wouldn't be shocked to see a big storm for our area in March.

The evolution for late Feb to start March looks similar to late Oct/early November.

This would fit well with raindancewx's forecast actually. If this idea proves correct then March could turn out a lot colder/stormier than many are expecting. 

It could be a false flag but the idea of a cold end of Feb/early March is looking more likely as supported by ensembles.

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The evolution for late Feb to start March looks similar to late Oct/early November.

This would fit well with raindancewx's forecast actually. If this idea proves correct then March could turn out a lot colder/stormier than many are expecting. 

It could be a false flag but the idea of a cold end of Feb/early March is looking more likely as supported by ensembles.

The only way to save this winter would be a March Blizzard 2001 reverse redux where the storm hits us with all its fury. :snowing:

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

And if it's not transient and we get snow ? Will you stop posting ?

Never happen, Anthony. S19 is too passionate regarding his beliefs and he only has five bites out of the apple as it is. As always ....

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1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

The only way to save this winter would be a March Blizzard 2001 reverse redux where the storm hits us with all its fury. :snowing:

But that year had already featured a nice blizzard earlier. This year has been as putrid as they come. I guess we get our few storms early on now and then nada for the remainder with a possible shot in March, when the snow can melt as fast as it falls....

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3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

But that year had already featured a nice blizzard earlier. This year has been as putrid as they come. I guess we get our few storms early on now and then nada for the remainder with a possible shot in March, when the snow can melt as fast as it falls....

I don't think NYC has had any days of snowcover this year outside of the day of the storm, the biggest storm of the winter the 1.8 inches from the GLC melted by the end of the night so March can't be any worse

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Models and ensembles hinting at something along the east coast next week. 

F6684C2F-03A9-475F-A8F7-733CD24DA1F9.png

Nice low  and yet still rain. Wtf.

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

so does GFS

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

Low is too close to the coast.  Thank god this is a million years away but we cant get lucky. 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Low is too close to the coast.  Thank god this is a million years away but we cant get lucky. 

Stacked Low if it gets strong enough could generate enough cold air to get a changeover but 997 won't do it

gfs_T850_us_32.png

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

that'll be over Detroit in a few days...

I tend to to disagree with that with the NAO trending negative around that time

nao.sprd2.gif

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that'll be over Detroit in a few days...

Yep, yet another all rain event coming up next week. Another horrible setup all around, zero blocking with a total junk airmass 

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