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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Ok since I’ve hammered my pessimism let me say there is still a chance to get one of these waves under us but it will take a lot of luck. I touched on what we need the other day. It’s not a 0 chance but it’s low probability. Maybe even lower then I expected (and I was never that optimistic) now that I try SE ridge is showing its teeth as we get closer. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok since I’ve hammeted my pessimism let me say there is still a chance to get one of these waves under us but it will take a lot of luck. I touched on what we need the other day. It’s not a 0 chance but it’s low probability. Maybe even lower then I expected (and I was never that optimistic) now that I try SE ridge is showing its teeth as we get closer. 

If I get even another inch by the 8th for my birthday, I will call it a winter!!!!!

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OP at range but the EURO keeps progressing the ridge in the pacific east.  Helps to keep the trough from dumping west. Maybe the ensembles can tease this as well.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh216_trend.gif

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

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29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

What is Dr. No doing?????

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1076800.png

I am ready to get hurt again.

Edit: My bet is on gradual deterioration into a frontal look by the start of the week that allegedly should give us rain to snow, but the snow doesn’t really materialize. That’s a classic setup here, right?

 

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Been a terrible year for many seasoned forecasters who forecasted a stone cold turn to cold in early  Jan and now talking about March.

just way too many unproven indexes with a new one being conjured up each season and uncessful attempts to bundle some and avoid some. We have made astonishing little progress in last 20 years  and unfortunately doubling down on what isnt working is not working. 

 

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EPS looks ALOT better as we head towards mid Feb. AO dosent looks so severely postive--signs of cross polar?

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Yep

Control run says winter is here to stay looking at h5.

the huge 850 anomolies are gone--just like that. Looks like a workable pattern

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53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is what it is. Nothing I say will change it. You can either cry or throw your hands up and laugh about it, then go find other things that bring you joy. Hopefully no ones entire happyness is 100% dependent on snow.  If so I seriously suggest a location adjustment stat.  

I would go with the Cascades.. or maybe Maine

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

EPS looks ALOT better as we head towards mid Feb. AO dosent looks so severely postive--signs of cross polar?

If it happens we need to send JB a big thank you card for finally throwing in the towel so that we can get winter!  

Jokes aside I’m skeptical until I see it get within range. The pac forcing remains awful. There will come a time as wavelengths shorten and the PV weakens some that perhaps we have a shot so I guess I’ve not totally given up. I’ll hold onto that little spec of hope and hug it tight. 

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Interestingly enough the weekend may not be completely DOA. Looking over the GFS/Euro they look as if they may be hinting at the possibility of an inverted trough running through the region extending back from the departing coastal. This is in response to the NS that I have gone on about on previous posts that is now dropping generally through our region. Though I am not exactly doing back flips when I look at the profile of the atmosphere it is possibly manageable if we can see some half decent rates. And it does come at an opportune time, Saturday night which doesn't hurt. Some elevation would be a big plus as well. And as far as rates the models have generally been juicing up the last couple of runs. Probably wouldn't be talking a broad expanse of precip and any snow would probably be confined to a narrow region where the heaviest band moves through. I could picture some lucky souls getting a coating to an inch and would not be surprised.

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Interestingly enough the weekend may not be completely DOA. Looking over the GFS/Euro they look as if they may be hinting at the possibility of an inverted trough running through the region extending back from the departing coastal. This is in response to the NS that I have gone on about on previous posts that is now dropping generally through our region. Though I am not exactly doing back flips when I look at the profile of the atmosphere it is possibly manageable if we can see some half decent rates. And it does come at an opportune time, Saturday night which doesn't hurt. Some elevation would be a big plus as well. And as far as rates the models have generally been juicing up the last couple of runs. Probably wouldn't be talking a broad expanse of precip and any snow would probably be confined to a narrow region where the heaviest band moves through. I could picture some lucky souls getting a coating to an inch and would not be surprised.

 

Yea ...I was casually mentioning it in the banter thread . Ensembles have hinted at it for day or so now op guidance is showing some qpf . I didn't analyze to deep but I can see now that u mention the inverted trough possibility.  Nice catch

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

Yea ...I was casually mentioning it in the banter thread . Ensembles have hinted at it for day or so now op guidance is showing some qpf . I didn't analyze to deep but I can see now that u mention the inverted trough possibility.  Nice catch

The 18z NAMs look a little too warm at the surface (mid 30s), but the 850 temps are below 32.

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

 

Yea ...I was casually mentioning it in the banter thread . Ensembles have hinted at it for day or so now op guidance is showing some qpf . I didn't analyze to deep but I can see now that u mention the inverted trough possibility.  

Seeing some weak signs of convergence at the lower levels of the atmosphere and we have seen the neg pressure anomalies building back through the region. I will look a little deeper after the overnight runs come out see if there may be anything there. 

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

The 18z NAMs look a little too warm at the surface (mid 30s), but the 850 temps are below 32.

It's not so much the surface that is the problem its the fact that the warm layer extends up to around 900 mb. That is a deep layer of warmth to over come especially when the dews don't look to cooperate.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Seeing some weak signs of convergence at the lower levels of the atmosphere and we have seen the neg pressure anomalies building back through the region. I will look a little deeper after the overnight runs come out see if there may be anything there. 

Nice.......3k actually shows some action verbatim this run 

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

It's not so much the surface that is the problem its the fact that the warm layer extends up to around 900 mb. That is a deep layer of warmth to over come especially when the dews don't look to cooperate.

For sure but verbatim by 6z Sunday am the 3k shows a much shallower warm layer . I did cherry pick a sounding along the m/d line that indeed showed snow:weenie: . Look forward to your analysis tomorrow.  Hopefully someone can score a lil something 

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23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

It's not so much the surface that is the problem its the fact that the warm layer extends up to around 900 mb. That is a deep layer of warmth to over come especially when the dews don't look to cooperate.

Ok....I'm learning so this map?  

nam-nest-conus-ma-t925-0598000.png

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok since I’ve hammered my pessimism let me say there is still a chance to get one of these waves under us but it will take a lot of luck. I touched on what we need the other day. It’s not a 0 chance but it’s low probability. Maybe even lower then I expected (and I was never that optimistic) now that I try SE ridge is showing its teeth as we get closer. 

Do you have the 3" percentage map for comparison? :twister:

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7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Ok....I'm learning so this map?  

nam-nest-conus-ma-t925-0598000.png

You can see it on soundings too.

nam sounding.png

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1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Been a terrible year for many seasoned forecasters who forecasted a stone cold turn to cold in early  Jan and now talking about March.

just way too many unproven indexes with a new one being conjured up each season and uncessful attempts to bundle some and avoid some. We have made astonishing little progress in last 20 years  and unfortunately doubling down on what isnt working is not working. 

 

20 years ago we could barely tease a 6-10 day outlook. Maybe we haven't nailed down 15 days or weeklies but we have come a heck of a long way without doubt.

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13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Ok....I'm learning so this map?  

nam-nest-conus-ma-t925-0598000.png

Easier to see when you look at a sounding leading in (This is around Brunswick). If you follow the line I marked that is the freezing line. Notice that at 900 mb (pressures, hPa on the left) the temp is above freezing at it extends all the way to the surface. What hurts is we aren't getting evaporation cooling through that whole warm column (Green line meets the red line) as we have wet bulbed. So basically you are hoping for good rates to overcome this warmth without the benefit of evaporation cooling.

 

sounding.gif.4b0dc655a4a8b24832c6978f9d79b1df.gif

Ninja'd by LP08 :lol:

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Easier to see when you look at a sounding leading in (This is around Brunswick). If you follow the line I marked that is the freezing line. Notice that at 900 mb (pressures, hPa on the left) the temp is above freezing at it extends all the way to the surface. What hurts is we aren't getting evaporation cooling through that whole warm column (Green line meets the red line) as we have wet bulbed. So basically you are hoping for good rates to overcome this warmth without the benefit of evaporation cooling.

 

sounding.gif.4b0dc655a4a8b24832c6978f9d79b1df.gif

Ninja'd by LP08 :lol:

What I wish was in those soundings was the height above sea level of those pressure levels. Maybe it’s there and I don’t know where to look.

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