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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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31 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Uh, works the other way as well. How many of these giddy periods centered around how great an upcoming period looks or how awesome the snowfall means look have we had? How many produced anything?

Oh I definitely know and agree. Just playing around and trying to keep it light this AM. My lack of snow frustration level is at an all time high like many in here. All we can do is push on and hope something breaks our way soon. 

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50 minutes ago, mappy said:

As annoying as you may find his snow percentage maps to be, at least they are relevant to the discussion. your four posts telling him to stop, were not, and i was not the only person to think that being it was not me who removed them. 

happy friday!

I will not clutter the forum with percentage maps.  I plan to post the 0z EPS and 12z EPS.  I want snow as well so it hurts me as much as it hurts others that want snow.  I view the maps as a quick and dirty way to see if an event is in sight.  Nothing more should be read into it.

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I will not clutter the forum with percentage maps.  I plan to post the 0z EPS and 12z EPS.  I want snow as well so it hurts me as much as it hurts others that want snow.  I view the maps as a quick and dirty way to see if an event is in sight.  Nothing more should be read into it.

I know others dont care for them but I like seeing them for trends. Thanks for posting them.

Lets hope we are all in the red at some point before winter ends haha.

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15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

DT put out a nice summary of why the winter has been bad.  He also states that our best hope in this  pattern is an overrunning event.  Also indicates normally these patterns don’t lock in for four months so there is some hope for March.  Check it out on his wxrisk facebook site.  Good read.

Not a fan of March snow.  Sun angle is a real thing. I’ll be ready to get this winter over with by Feb 29. And will be super pissed If we have a cold Spring rather than a normal one. 

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March snow is pretty awesome. Sun angle isn't really an issue for me. We could get 10 inches in Jan and it torch the day after like 50 degrees and all the snow melts fast anyway. I have a feeling we'll have a nice consolation snow in the next 30 days. February is usually good to us. January has always been frustrating for me. Help me out, isn't February the middle of winter anyway for us? 

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27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

DT put out a nice summary of why the winter has been bad.  He also states that our best hope in this  pattern is an overrunning event.  Also indicates normally these patterns don’t lock in for four months so there is some hope for March.  Check it out on his wxrisk facebook site.  Good read.

I can't wait for our 2 inches on March 10th to be melted 10 minutes after sunrise.

The only saving grace this winter has been the lack of any decent storm potential that ended up whiffing at the last minute, with credit given to short/med range models.. it's been a steaming turd from the start..

 

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21 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

March snow is pretty awesome. Sun angle isn't really an issue for me. We could get 10 inches in Jan and it torch the day after like 50 degrees and all the snow melts fast anyway. I have a feeling we'll have a nice consolation snow in the next 30 days. February is usually good to us. January has always been frustrating for me. Help me out, isn't February the middle of winter anyway for us? 

In the city, March snow melts on its way down. 

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It is likely the Mid Atlantic region will remain locked in this pattern right through February, possibly even March. Cold air will remain locked to our north with only a few brief and minor breakaways into the area, yet short lived. It’s not just this area, the Northeast, southern New England are all in the same boat. Even lake effect has been below normal. DCA may not even break 1”. Eventually the NAO/AO will come around in time to ruin our spring. 

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I'll take what I get at this point. At least any rain that comes won't be a miserable 33 and rain. Lots of 40s, 50s and a couple 60s.

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I have a work workshop from Feb 12 to 16th in South Carolina.  I was legit going to wait until next Wed to book the trip, because I was deathly afraid of missing a snowstorm.

lol.  I'm booking my flight tonight. 

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2 hours ago, Clueless said:

Not a fan of March snow.  Sun angle is a real thing. I’ll be ready to get this winter over with by Feb 29. And will be super pissed If we have a cold Spring rather than a normal one. 

March can definitely deliver!  We did very well March 18

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Somewhere over the next few days I fully expect all guidance to be rain with these gradient waves but the Euro will come along for 2 or 3 straight runs to get everyone's hopes up by showing frozen before breaking hearts and crushing dreams. Dr No is a real thing.

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15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have a work workshop from Feb 12 to 16th in South Carolina.  I was legit going to wait until next Wed to book the trip, because I was deathly afraid of missing a snowstorm.

lol.  I'm booking my flight tonight. 

Too early.  I have a feeling that'll be just about the time that things change for the better.  Its probably gonna get cold at some point this winter.

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42 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Too early.  I have a feeling that'll be just about the time that things change for the better.  Its probably gonna get cold at some point this winter.

Yeah April, when the doffadils are popping up and the -NAO crushes them

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5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Now is a perfect time to debunk the perception that during prime climo when LR guidance, ens, and weeklies show good looks 9 out of 10 times they flip to the bad and trend the wrong way (and I dont mean just dampening out as lead times shrink ...I'm referring to the 180 degree flips we see quite a bit).

Now that LR guidance, ens means, and weeklies are showing a crud pattern with all the wrong teleconnection indices and essentially an early end to winter, let's sit back and wait to see if they flip to the good looks as quickly as the other way....if at all.

You're not accounting for a couple factors that cause the phenomenon you are talking about.

1.  The GEFS has 2 known biases that would perpetually cause it to show too much snow here.  A cold bias, and a weak bias with the PV.  These 2 known factors constantly bias the GEFS towards too much snow here.  The EPS and GEPS are constantly more conservative (and more accurate) wrt our snow chances in the long range.  I think people see the higher GEFS snowfall and think the guidance is better than it really is.

2.  When the long range guidance shows a 35% chance of snowfall...when that number goes down as it gets closer...that is not the guidance being wrong...or getting worse...its simply its closer and so they 65% is winning out...which ends up meaning no snow.  That keeps happening...and people think the guidance is degrading...not its just the majority is winning as it SHOULD.  If the guidance (and I mean the EPS/GEPS not the GEFS) ever actually shows above 50% chances of significant snowfall THEN its wrong if as it gets closer it loses the snow. That has not been the case at all this year...and it usually isnt.  People are not interpreting the probabilities correctly.  

3.  We have to be in a good pattern for the opposite of what you are talking about to happen.  Since we spend about 75% of the time in a crappy pattern (that is normal) there are not as many opportunities to get a "bad bust" like you want.  In years like 2010 and 2014 there were times the long range looked bad and then trended better.  It doesn't happen as often because we dont get as many chances in a "good year" as we do in a "bad year".  

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19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thanks for rubbing it in...

It is what it is. Nothing I say will change it. You can either cry or throw your hands up and laugh about it, then go find other things that bring you joy. Hopefully no ones entire happyness is 100% dependent on snow.  If so I seriously suggest a location adjustment stat.  

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Kidding aside,

Isn't this during our two days of a -EPO.....maybe we can get some luck.  At least until the 0z EURO squashes any hope of a trend in the good direction for one of these waves along the front.  Let's see what EPS does.

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Ok since I’ve hammered my pessimism let me say there is still a chance to get one of these waves under us but it will take a lot of luck. I touched on what we need the other day. It’s not a 0 chance but it’s low probability. Maybe even lower then I expected (and I was never that optimistic) now that I try SE ridge is showing its teeth as we get closer. 

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