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DanLarsen34

January 10-11 Severe Weather Threat

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5 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Some strong low-level rotation is ongoing with a storm in NE OK right now.

3BEAE59E-B90D-4384-9887-5258C52677B0.png

That storm is almost stationary 

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Meanwhile radar returns are increasing over and near the DFW Metroplex, primarily Denton County at this time.  These particular areas of development seem primed to become more of a severe thunderstorm threat as they move further north. 

In terms of a DFW-area severe storm threat, I'm continuing to watch for potential development south or southwest of the DFW area, though, and (fortunately) there is nothing in that area yet.

The rotation has also weakened on that NE OK storm too.

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The sun has been peaking out here in SELA a bit, looking at satellite there seem to be spotty breaks all over Louisiana 

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RAP is projecting around 200 J of 3km CAPE around the DFW area later on with as much as 2000 J of MLCAPE. Anything discrete is quickly going to become tornadic 

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most storms so far have that "grungy" look not rooted at the surface ....as SPC noted this is likely the result a inversion 

the showers that keep redeveloping in streaks and moving over the metroplex may help this continue for a bit

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1 minute ago, CryHavoc said:

Cell to the NW of Joplin looks like it's about to produce.

Rotation isn't overly tight or strong, could certainly produce though. 

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Just now, BrandonC_TX said:

Severe-warned storm coming into Muskogee seems to be developing a fairly-pronounced hook echo.

Yeah it is TOR now

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Some of the more active updrafts seem to be "drilling down" through the inversion.  IIRC there's a case study of that from an upper Midwest outbreak several years ago where conditions were otherwise quite favorable

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5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Some of the more active updrafts seem to be "drilling down" through the inversion.  IIRC there's a case study of that from an upper Midwest outbreak several years ago where conditions were otherwise quite favorable

I remember one time several years ago there was a situation where storms to the west of DFW acted to remove a capping inversion over DFW due to rain-cooled air falling out of the storm anvils, and then storms rapidly went up over the Metroplex.  So I could completely see how rain-cooled air aloft could remove an inversion.

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Pretty impressive available streamwise vorticity ingested by this storm using local sfc obs, fort smith radar, and nws calculated storm motion 

efuela tornado.png

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For the DFW area I would be more concerned if I saw stronger radar returns trying to form in the circled area below.

Also any right-movers developing out of that area of heavy precipitation to the west could be a risk for the western Metroplex.

E75B47A7-C11A-422A-8C57-B160250B4D4E.jpeg

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
150 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020  
  
OKC021-041-097-102015-  
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200110T2015Z/  
DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-CHEROKEE OK-  
150 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR  
SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN MAYES AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE  
COUNTIES...  
      
AT 149 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO   
WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF PEGGS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. A   
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO OCCURRED NEAR LOST CITY   
AROUND 140 PM.  
  

perhaps today's first tornado

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