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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Track means everything, obviously lol

Ukmet is even farther west with the heaviest being near kbuf..

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020012112_144_479_220.png

Is that because the primary holds on longer on the Ukmet?  If so then it will be a warmer solution and most of that precipitation will be liquid.

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1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

Is that because the primary holds on longer on the Ukmet?  If so then it will be a warmer solution and most of that precipitation will be liquid.

Ukie is mostly snow for us. Snow maps look similar to Euro but a bit west. 

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3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Practically BM for parts of CNY..

9khwbg_conus (3).gif

9lhwbg_conus (3).gif

It's funny they talk about the BM track all the time over on the NE forum.

My benchmark here is the center of LI.  Track from Jersey coast ---> center of LI is almost a guaranteed winner here.

 

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19 minutes ago, cny rider said:

It's funny they talk about the BM track all the time over on the NE forum.

My benchmark here is the center of LI.  Track from Jersey coast ---> center of LI is almost a guaranteed winner here.

 

There are a lot of Mets over there and they offer tidbits for us out west so I poke around there quite a bit.  And anytime one of the civilian posters complain about rain and dry slots, that means we are good upstate.  Our best storms are usually grim for them.  

I will also say my camp is located in the Adirondacks which is kind of like a Bermuda triangle of the weather boards. Often time that latitude corresponds a lot with what the northern NE crew are concerned with and not necessarily what is on the minds of this board out in western NY.  I also live closer to the NYC so that forum is interesting for my backyard.  I lurk the Sh*t out the forums during storm threats!  

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I just snuck a peak at the NE board and someone made the comment that this will be good for the hinterlands.  Hopefully we are the hinterlands!

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I kept seeing stories about a blizzard in Newfoundland this past weekend so I did some digging.  Check out this bad boy of a system!!  The part of the video link pertaining to the snow starts around the 33 second mark.  Quite jealous.

 

Capture.PNG.6423cadb420b09ff3fb8a62828253631.PNG

 

 

 

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Good roundup of what's going on there. Surprisingly, no hysteria about climate change, extreme weather, end of the world, etc.  US media work that angle on every run of the mill system they cover. 

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Some nice dendrites falling here..

 

TYX_loop - 2020-01-21T153109.847.gif

 

First time I've ever seen spectrum news use the gfs lol

They showed it's futurcast, no mention of the European..

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Moving on into the longer term portion of the forecast...low pressure
over the Ohio Valley Friday evening will lift northeastward to about
Lake Erie Friday night and Saturday...while gradually weakening as its
energy transfers to a developing secondary coastal low along or just
offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The secondary coastal low will
then continue to deepen as it moves northeastward off the New England
coastline Sunday and Sunday night...while lingering deep cyclonic flow
across our region gradually gives way to surface-based ridging building
eastward from the Upper Great Lakes.

In terms of PoPs...increasing synoptic forcing and moisture attendant
to the initial primary low and its parent upper level low will spread
increasing precipitation chances from southwest to northeast Friday
night and Saturday. In the official forecast...have reflected this by
spreading likely to categorical PoPs across far western New York
Friday night...then across the remainder of the area on Saturday. The
deep moist cyclonic flow on the backside of the strengthening coastal
system should then maintain at least a general likelihood of pcpn
areawide Saturday night and Sunday...with the precip then quickly
tapering off Sunday night as the deeper synoptic moisture gets stripped
away...and as the aforementioned ridge builds eastward into our region.

With regard to ptype...the precipitation may initially begin as some
light rain Friday night...with steady cooling of the atmospheric
column then driving a transition over to mainly wet snow as the night
progresses. During this transition period...a brief wintry mix cannot
be ruled out dependent upon how quickly the boundary layer and a modest
warm layer aloft cool relative to each other...however confidence in
this remains too low for inclusion in the forecast given both the time
frame and continued model differences in how thermal profiles will evolve.
After that time...the precipitation should tend to be more in the way
of wet snow through the remainder of the event...though marginal thermal
profiles may still be supportive of some rain mixing back in again across
the lower elevations during the day Saturday and again on Sunday.

While this system will be nowhere near as strong as the one that passed
through our region this past weekend...it could still bring a notable
water-laden snowfall to portions of our region from later Friday night
through Sunday...with this potential heavily dependent on the eventual
track/strength of the low and its resultant influence on thermal profiles
across our region...all of which remains uncertain this far out in advance.
At this point...it appears the best potential for such a snowfall will lie
across our higher terrain...which should run a bit colder overall throughout
the event.

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KBGM AFD snip this afternoon:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main concern this time period is the evolution of the next storm system and its impacts on our forecast area. Models all show a closed upper level low moving into Indiana and Ohio Friday night
and then tracking across southern PA/West Virginia and Virginia/Maryland/Delaware and NJ Saturday and then to off the New England coast by Sunday. This upper level low brings a low-level cyclone up to Ohio where is occludes and goes barotropic.
The baroclinic zone shifts to the coast on Saturday and thisupper level low as it moves east will eventually spin up another low-level cyclone with baroclinic development. Models continue to have track that is south and east of northeast PA andcentral NY meaning a higher chance for mainly snow. We stillcould see some boundary layer warmth Saturday during the day which could lead to mixed rain and snow especially in our
valleys. By Saturday night precipitation should be all snow. We will continue with mainly chance POPs Friday night, Likely
Saturday and chance to likely POPs for snow showers Sunday and flurries and scattered snow showers into Monday begin this
system.

The main question is how much QPF will our forecast area get. It is way too early to begin snow amounts. There is a lot of bust
potential with this storm even if its track remains similar. The issue is how quickly will the coastal low develop. If it is
delayed our area will just get mainly light to moderate snow with the heaviest snow east of our area. Basically we would have
an upper level low with limited moisture and a minimum between the Ohio Valley low and the coastal low. The 12z GFS scenario
develops the coastal low more rapidly and hence would be a decent snowstorm for our area especially Saturday night. But in
these transfer lows we could easily miss out if the coastal low doesn`t take off in time. So for now we will continue to mention
the possibility of a winter storm this weekend in our Hazardous weather outlook and we will edit our graphical hazardous weather outlook and we will edit our graphical hazardous weather outlook to "elevated" level for Saturday. us weather outlook to
"elevated" level for Saturday.
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22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I know I post random shit lmao

5 extra days this year? Looks like it..

EO1B_FVW4AEpDEh.jpeg

I was at Oktoberfest in Munich last fall.  It's the NY State Fair on steroids. :)

 

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