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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Can't believes it's 2020 tomorrow. Buffalo is 2.4 degrees above normal for the date as of the 30th. We are also -7.1 inches for snowfall. Shockingly we're actually 1/2" ahead of last year for total snowfall to date. We look to get some lake enhanced/les tomorrow into weds morning.

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We then look to experience a period of colder weather Jan 5-9 where we have a few chances of some snow. Models start to diverge towards the middle of the month. Morning runs look pretty conclusive on a very warm pattern shaping up. Tonight's runs look less like that. There will still be quite a few cutters the next few weeks but if we can ride the gradient right the NE seems like it should do okay in this type of pattern. As the case has been all year the models and even ENS have been terrible beyond a week so take everything with a grain of salt. CIPS analogs look slightly above normal in long range extended. Hope everyone has a great new year and go bills!

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Indices don't look the greatest but we may get some help from the EPO.

4indices.png

AO seems to be going down which would help too

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Potential around the 7-9th for a clipper/miller B

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Jan 10-15th look quite warm right now, but that's too far out to get into specifics with the current up and down modeling.

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WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy lake snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35
  mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region, and particularly in the
  vicinity of the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

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Looks good wolf. Looks like I will be on the northern edge of the snow tonight as it focuses on far southern erie county. 

In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave (mid level energy)...
the steering flow during the first half of tonight will become
westerly. As the cold air in the cyclonic flow deepens...increasing
instability over the relatively warm lakes (near 40 open waters of
Lk Erie and mid 40s open waters of eastern Lk Ontario) will activate
the lake snow machines which have been dormant for the past few
weeks. Moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow will then become
focused over much of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill plateau.
Supporting the snowfall will be adequate instability...a reasonably
long fetch (esp. Lk Ont)...and a well aligned steering flow. On the
other hand...snowfall will be held back somewhat from the cap being
in the vcnty of 10k ft. That being said...the mixed phase layer will
certainly be deep enough with a -10c isotherm around 3k ft to
support at least the potential for electrification for sites east of
Lk Ontario. Have thus added the chance for thunder/lightning. The
Tug Hill is usually the focus for any lightning.
Boiling this all down...forecast snowfall amounts tonight will range
from 3 to 5 inches east of Lake Erie (focus on the Chautauqua ridge)
with snowfall rates of a half to one inch...to 5 to 9 inches
accumulation on the Tug with snowfall rates of one to two inches.
Brief periods of three inch rates for the latter cannot be ruled
out. Outside of these lake snow areas...amounts will generally be
under an inch.

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Thanks BW..

Main concern here as usual is the wind, right now the NWS has 10-15mph sustained winds which aren't too bad...

Looking at the P&C forecast, you go from 2"-5" in Pulaski to 7"-15" in Redfield.. Forecast here is 5"-9"...

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We ended up with about 1.30" rain for this system, which was accompanied by not much wind but enough to make high 30s to low 40s feel pretty miserable. Reminds me of weather in north germany and holland / UK. Just utter shite. 

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Seeing some nice lake enhancement with the precip blob over Southern Ontario. Actually a pretty good line firing up heading into Niagara County right now. Think this is going to be our only way to see any snow here today is to hope for some bursts like that to work through...

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.

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17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Seeing some nice lake enhancement with the precip blob over Southern Ontario. Actually a pretty good line firing up heading into Niagara County right now. Think this is going to be our only way to see any snow here today is to hope for some bursts like that to work through...

b94e08bc93a686640a8904149ceede3d.gif


.

Must be quite a bit of virga going on in the leading edge of the precip  shield as its neither raining or snowing here.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1001 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

...BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW VISIBILITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...

A burst of moderate to heavy snow is expected by early this
afternoon over western New York and by mid to late afternoon
across the Genesee valley. Expect sharply reduced visibility
below a half mile during heavier snow showers, along with wind
gusts over 30 mph. The worst conditions are expected over the
Niagara Frontier and western Southern Tier, including the Buffalo
metro, between 11 AM and 2 PM, then over the Genesee valley,
including the Rochester metro, between 1 PM and 4 PM.

It is also possible snow squall warnings may be needed later
today in some areas as this snow moves through. Expect the snow
to transition to lake effect snow showers by early this evening.

437bcbe568157565a5b060ab09e9492c.gif


.

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2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1001 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

...BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW VISIBILITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...

A burst of moderate to heavy snow is expected by early this
afternoon over western New York and by mid to late afternoon
across the Genesee valley. Expect sharply reduced visibility
below a half mile during heavier snow showers, along with wind
gusts over 30 mph. The worst conditions are expected over the
Niagara Frontier and western Southern Tier, including the Buffalo
metro, between 11 AM and 2 PM, then over the Genesee valley,
including the Rochester metro, between 1 PM and 4 PM.

It is also possible snow squall warnings may be needed later
today in some areas as this snow moves through. Expect the snow
to transition to lake effect snow showers by early this evening.

437bcbe568157565a5b060ab09e9492c.gif


.

At the current 37 to 38 degrees I doubt that's all snow when it rolls through

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At the current 37 to 38 degrees I doubt that's all snow when it rolls through


UPDATE: Transition to a lake effect event occurs this afternoon as 2-
3 hour burst of moderate to heavy snow is expected across the area.
Based on upstream observations in northern Ohio and the Niagara
Peninsula in Ontario and latest hi-res guidance including the HRRR
which has good handle on upstream trends, visibility could drop to
less than one-half mile in heavier snow and winds may gust 30-40 mph
as the snow moves through along track of shortwave rotating around
parent upper low over the Upper Great Lakes.

With short duration expected to the snow, going to handle this
with Special Weather Statements and possibly Snow Squall
Warnings if conditions warrant. Based on the guidance, seems
best chance of needing Snow Squall Warnings will be from the
Genesee valley eastward by late aftn, but will continue to
monitor radar trends. Main takeaways from this initial burst of
snow this afternoon is brief poor travel due to mainly low vsby
and gusty winds. Also even with marginal temps in the lower 30s
for snow accumulation there is some potential for quick snow
accum on untreated roads. Already saw narrow band of snow
sliding across Niagara county currently produce some snow on
roads btwn St. Catherines and Niagara Falls an hour ago even as
temps there were in the 34-36F range.


.
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It’s a mix up here near the Buffalo/Snyder/Cleveland Hill line. Accumulating a little bit, though. I think this will show as a trace, unless the airport gets a bigger burst.

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What a joke. 30 seconds of pingers... 30 seconds of heavy big fat flakes... and back to flurries. I was determined to not lay a goose egg on this one so I stood there for a good five minutes until a flake fell perfectly against my ruler. 0.1”... 2 second rule before melting still counts right?


.

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4 minutes ago, WNash said:

It’s a mix up here near the Buffalo/Snyder/Cleveland Hill line. Accumulating a little bit, though. I think this will show as a trace, unless the airport gets a bigger burst.

Snowing and sticking decently in Williamsville ground has a light wire slushy coating 

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