Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Incredible stuff! Thanks Don. We might see that typical backend niño February seeing 93 and 07 in there are interesting. 89 was garbage the rest of the way for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: seeing 93 and 07 in there are interesting. 89 was garbage the rest of the way for the most part. Didn’t 89 have a Big Mid Atlantic storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Didn’t 89 have a Big Mid Atlantic storm?? it was a weird storm-gave ACY something like 15 inches but 20 miles inland was nothing. I was living outside of philly at the time and forecasts were 6-12 and we didn't see a flake. It was around 2/20/89 or something like that. Not much else other than that-it was colder though once we got to to Feb 89. Dec 88-Jan 89 were infernos with little to no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 58 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Didn’t 89 have a Big Mid Atlantic storm?? The February 24-25, 1989 event was very localized. Atlantic City picked up 12.3". Islip received only 1.1". New York City had no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: At this point I would say just bring on spring but I already know it'll be another lousy one. I can already see the NAO/AO tanking as we flip to March. How about an Easter HECS? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: At this point I would say just bring on spring but I already know it'll be another lousy one. I can already see the NAO/AO tanking as we flip to March. I agree that we are past the point where winter will be saved by some epic 2015/2005 type run. I say this because I just don’t see those cards lining up for us. That being said, we will get a storm eventually. Probably sometime in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I agree that we are past the point where winter will be saved by some epic 2015/2005 type run. I say this because I just don’t see those cards lining up for us. That being said, we will get a storm eventually. Probably sometime in February Late this month still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Late this month still looks good. for what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 of the last 5 Marches have featured above normal snows here. If you go back to pre-2010, snow was scarce in March but more plentiful in December-interesting how there's certain patterns over a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 3 of the last 5 Marches have featured above normal snows here. If you go back to pre-2010, snow was scarce in March but more plentiful in December-interesting how there's certain patterns over a period of time. march snow does not excite me with high sun angle will have hard time sticking in daytime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: for what? For an asteroid. What do you think? Why are you ignoring the signs of a better pattern and also ignoring Allsnow and PB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 This is cold for a snowstorm in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: For an asteroid. What do you think? Why are you ignoring the signs of a better pattern and also ignoring Allsnow and PB? been hearing about a great pattern for 2 years...not much to show for it. Like Allsnow said above the chances for an 05 or 15 recovery are slim. Hopefully we can get a snowstorm or two...I'd be happy with that at this point. Anything more than that would be a huge win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: been hearing about a great pattern for 2 years...not much to show for it. Like Allsnow said above the chances for an 05 or 15 recovery are slim. Hopefully we can get a snowstorm or two...I'd be happy with that at this point. Anything more than that would be a huge win. We will have opportunities coming up the next few weeks. The reshuffling was on the ensembles for the 26th but the signal is bit stronger now. By just reading this thread you would think next week La Niña is coming and we will torch again. We still have ridging our west with a split flow along with a northwest flow from Canada. The cutters are gone after Saturday but most people won’t acknowledge that because it means little for their backyard. Agree with @bluewave, the +amm is probably hurting the -epo and the scandy ridging is fading. Which it return is allowing higher hgts in central Canada. It’s still not a bad look and trust me if it looked like trash I would acknowledge it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, nycwinter said: march snow does not excite me with high sun angle will have hard time sticking in daytime... Not with a cold enough air mass.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We will have opportunities coming up the next few weeks. The reshuffling was on the ensembles for the 26th but the signal is bit stronger now. By just reading this thread you would think next week La Niña is coming and we will torch again. We still have ridging our west with a split flow along with a northwest flow from Canada. The cutters are gone after Saturday but most people won’t acknowledge that because it means little for their backyard. Agree with @bluewave, the +amm is probably hurting the -epo and the scandy ridging is fading. Which it return is allowing higher hgts in central Canada. It’s still not a bad look and trust me of it looked like trash I would acknowledge it. with no ATL blocking, I would not say cutters are gone-even with cold highs, there's the risk a storm slips b/w highs and goes to the lakes. Agree it's a better pattern, but can't agree that it's a good or great pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 A very Miller b esque look on the gfs for the 25th. I hope some can step away from the ledge with that for a few hours. I know I know, it’s not December 2017 type cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WarrenCtyWx said: Not with a cold enough air mass.... Early March is fine-but once you get past 3/10 or so, daytime accums get tough unless it's really heavy or windy/cold. March 18 was awesome but had that been in Feb, we would have had twice the snow easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: with no ATL blocking, I would not say cutters are gone-even with cold highs, there's the risk a storm slips b/w the 2 and goes to the lakes. Agree it's a better pattern, but can't agree that it's a good or great pattern. But now we have blocking in central Canada. We don’t need a -nao to snow in nyc. We had that for the first half of December and got squat. And yes we can get cutters in any winter. January 2014 had them even during our good periods. But with this look I would favor a costal track over a cutter to Detroit. You have been around long enough to know we don’t need a great pattern in January to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: But now we have blocking in central Canada. We don’t need a -nao to snow in nyc. We had that for the first half of December and got squat. Fair point. If there's good -EPO as well that'll do it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I agree that we are past the point where winter will be saved by some epic 2015/2005 type run. I say this because I just don’t see those cards lining up for us. That being said, we will get a storm eventually. Probably sometime in February Yea, it’s pretty clear at this point that 2/15 or 2/05 isn’t on the way, there isn’t even so much as a hint of that and you would be able to see it by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Nice storm on the GFS next weekend...too far out to get too excited but it does have a nice track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Nice storm on the GFS next weekend...too far out to get too excited but it does have a nice track Looks like its got potential for sure. Can't worry about if it's showing snow or rain at this point, but a track like that favors snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Nice storm on the GFS next weekend...too far out to get too excited but it does have a nice track I saw that too... definitely should keep an eye out on the 24th-26th in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea, it’s pretty clear at this point that 2/15 or 2/05 isn’t on the way, there isn’t even so much as a hint of that and you would be able to see it by now You may be right but February runs 2-6 weeks from now --- we all know any outcome is still on the table regardless on what is currently depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea, it’s pretty clear at this point that 2/15 or 2/05 isn’t on the way, there isn’t even so much as a hint of that and you would be able to see it by now Well those years are historic for a reason. We can’t see into February until next week, most likely why we don’t have any hints currently All I’m saying is the pattern going forward isn’t last weekend. We will have chances with cold air around. The nino esque look has me hopeful for a typical cold snowy February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Mersky said: Why does every storm or cold spell have to be memorable?? Thank God most of you were not around in the 70’s or 80’s. You all would be a sorry, miserable bunch if you were I was around for the 80's (and the 90's which were mostly horrid but not as horrid as the 80's) lol. not everything needs to be memorable, but some were tossing around "78 and '15 for analogs... "" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Nice look on the GEFS for the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Also, anyone think the southern hemisphere wackiness is causing some things to go awry here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 What are we for January, +15? Incredible warmth continues, low was only 41 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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