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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not often those coastal NC folks see a foot plus on the snow map.

The Euro did like Manu Ginobili and Euro Stepped away from us. 

 

Saw that.  Nooners tell us GFS/CMC/GEM/ICON all see the storm.  Thats enough concensus to annie up.

 

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26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Goodness Gracious....not sure if this was foretasted before but could someone make a run at 70?  A/C time.  And then a little snow just 12-18 hours later. 

image.png.be8f988d845125418e3fe9e6e420139b.png

 

Yes, the "relaxation" has been showing up for several days now.  I suggested the other day that it was looking likely on most ens guidance, but that relax, brings the cold WAY south (likely coldest the SE has seen this year IMO), and beyond seems to be the time that opens the window for a decent run at winter.  For how long....I dont know, but tellies are in support of something less transient and more sustained.

 

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50 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yes, the "relaxation" has been showing up for several days now.  I suggested the other day that it was looking likely on most ens guidance, but that relax, brings the cold WAY south (likely coldest the SE has seen this year IMO), and beyond seems to be the time that opens the window for a decent run at winter.  For how long....I dont know, but tellies are in support of something less transient and more sustained.

 

I knew a warm up was coming next week (Next week is my Florida week...may be colder there than here.  It was one night last time). but did not know mid to upper 60's was on the docket.  Was not following it that closely but we hit 69 at MDT and it adds another notch into the belt of the 69 and over days discussion we had a few weeks ago.  Fairly rare.

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For those not visiting the MA this EPS/Euro Ens map is interesting in how many show snow from a coastal near us this weekend.  17 out of 50 show something at least worth measuring. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-0644800.thumb.png.1e353f54cabedb44105ac7d11fdac3d8.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-0644800.thumb.png.f45b98d2f7dae1d842e0f80741617734.png

 

 

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2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Saw that.  Nooners tell us GFS/CMC/GEM/ICON all see the storm.  Thats enough concensus to annie up.

 

NoGaps looks like a moderate snow though there are no surface temps.  WW3 and JMA are out. 

Edit  18Z Icon is a moderate snow as well though surface temps are not great. 

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I knew a warm up was coming next week (Next week is my Florida week...may be colder there than here.  It was one night last time). but did not know mid to upper 60's was on the docket.  Was not following it that closely but we hit 69 at MDT and it adds another notch into the belt of the 69 and over days discussion we had a few weeks ago.  Fairly rare.

Just for the sake of compare, the 18Z has the temp around 50, on Wed, where the 12Z Euro is 67 (my place) due to timing differences in the front.  Makes the difference between a normal warm day and a once  or twice a decade type day. 

 

 

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The 18z GFS & 18z ICON both brought the coastal low close enough to the coast to produce some snow in CTP this weekend.

There are still 5 days to go. Hopefully 0z runs tonight continue to go in the right direction.

 

1CCC9764-A532-4ECB-BB26-26D3FF63906E.png

F11ECB31-5FCA-425C-8937-6B104547722C.png

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1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

HM continues to harp on the NAO going slightly negative this weekend, leading to coastal development. 

Lol I wish it was that easy. 

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4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I'm gonna sleep on it......

G night

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png

So, after looking over the 0z runs tonight, we need to root for the GFS & UKMET.

The 0z  Canadian & Euro were wide right.

The UKMET has the coastal on a similar track as the GFS, but the low is stronger to our south & further deepens to the northeast.

I would sign up for the GFS right now.

 

66BFC47B-2C62-4F3C-8E17-63FECDABD60E.png

F2D1BFB8-4E07-4FF1-8E3B-F705701B3556.png

E05A0B4C-135E-4F8B-A3F6-9EE5A06BAE48.png

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10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS & 6z ICON storm still keep the chance of some snow from the coastal on Saturday for us.

 

 

7BFED903-F196-4F57-81DC-E1C76F037C58.png

That icon depiction would pressure the NWS for Warnings.  Probably 4-8" on the grass.  Canderson I am guessing it will be not too bad on the roads either way.  There is no cold air so at the worst it will be near freezing.

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I'll tell ya this....if the 6z Goofus has any merit to what its showing, I'm gonna be happier than a clam.  That was one of the snowiest runs i've seen in a long time.

Train of opportunities....and a doozy right in the middle 2/7 weekend. 

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when we see MA and SE snow totals popping up like this....its time to get the coffee ready.  Lotsa tracking to be done.  Some of the 500 maps for next week are just beauts.

gfs_asnow_us_65.png

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll tell ya this....if the 6z Goofus has any merit to what its showing, I'm gonna be happier than a clam.  That was one of the snowiest runs i've seen in a long time.

Train of opportunities....and a doozy right in the middle 2/7 weekend. 

That seems to be time when the players are progged to be aligned for our best opportunity. I'm genuinely interested in the period beginning in about 10 days.

Yeah...I know. 

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15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll tell ya this....if the 6z Goofus has any merit to what its showing, I'm gonna be happier than a clam.  That was one of the snowiest runs i've seen in a long time.

Train of opportunities....and a doozy right in the middle 2/7 weekend. 

You need to push that doozy back a day or two so I can get home...its actually Thursday night and Friday on the GFS.   

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That seems to be time when the players are progged to be aligned for our best opportunity. I'm genuinely interested in the period beginning in about 10 days.

Yeah...I know. 

You know what??

Your tired of chasing 10 day Unicorns??

:lol:

I'm not even looking much beyond until we get into next week, as I think that as long as we enter this new pattern thats been advertised coupled w/ our back weighted winters, that we may be seeing a decent window open.  Sure hope so.

 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You need to push that doozy back a day or two so I can get home...its actually Thursday night and Friday on the GFS.   

this is the one I'm getting jacked up about.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

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Just now, pasnownut said:

this is the one I'm getting jacked up about.

 

Yea, that's the one.  Snow starts probably 2-3 AM Friday Morning.  Mostly joking about the timing but like Canderson I get a bit tired of fighting snow during travel.  LOL.   

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, that's the one.  Snow starts probably 2-3 AM Friday Morning.  Mostly joking about the timing but like Canderson I get a bit tired of fighting snow during travel.  LOL.   

well then you all should be rather rested this year.....

just sayin......^_^

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well the first step to any snowy pattern is getting the daily 6z GFS ice age run. 

now we just need a happy hour shellackin before it all goes down the sh!tter

Mindy you I'm not honkin any crazy snow horns....I'm just happy to see legit threat windows and storms within....thats all

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