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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Canadian Hopefully was just being the Canadian.

It develops the secondary in a nice spot in NC, but then moves it due north to the homeland of @Bubbler86 in south central PA. We need it to track to the coast. 

Let’s see what the Euro has to say later on.

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Yeah just look on phone. We really need cold to stick around later this week as this evolution would need to manufacture its own cold otherwise it’s a dynamically elevation driven snow event and plenty of cold rain elsewhere. 
Come on euro.... 

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Just now, pasnownut said:

Yeah just look on phone. We really need cold to stick around later this week as this evolution would need to manufacture its own cold otherwise it’s a dynamically elevation driven snow event and plenty of cold rain elsewhere. 
Come on euro.... 

We just need a good track & I think most of us will be just cold enough in prime climo time.

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Best takeaway from 12z gfs, was the major move towards a chance.  CMC is close enough to consider.  Still not having good cold supply and relying on dynamics is a sketchy proposition, but hey, stranger things have happened.

 

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CTP seemed enthusiastic this morning about the weekend potential :

“A slow-moving area of low pressure will bring the potential for moderate snowfall amounts, along with some mixed precipitation, during the late Friday night into early Sunday timeframe.”

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP seemed enthusiastic this morning about the weekend potential :

“A slow-moving area of low pressure will bring the potential for moderate snowfall amounts, along with some mixed precipitation, during the late Friday night into early Sunday timeframe.”

:blink:

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

:blink:

Here’s more from CTP this morning:

“The overall synoptic setup with a cold high anchored to the NE and a plume of tropical moisture moving north ahead of it spells trouble in the form another possible snow/sleet event. The nose of a moderately strong LLJ (about +2 sigma at 925 mb), that`s bending cyclonically back into the region will lead to the potential for a moderate to locally heavy precip late Friday right into Sunday morning.”

 

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Dammit. This is the second hand of the game, and I haven't even had to put in a blind, but it's time. I'm going all-in. 

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Yes it does.  Its a little less vigorous a system and ticked ever so slightly east of 0z.  

............pulls some poker chips back in from center of table (even though thats not allowed)

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I think it’s safe for me to post again now so I’m here to will this weekend storm to fruition. 

Blizzard, bring it home for the entire region! 

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15 minutes ago, canderson said:

I think it’s safe for me to post again now so I’m here to will this weekend storm to fruition. 

Blizzard, bring it home for the entire region! 

glad you're back bro

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36 minutes ago, canderson said:

I think it’s safe for me to post again now so I’m here to will this weekend storm to fruition. 

Blizzard, bring it home for the entire region! 

Before you know it this thing will be in the range of the NAM and things will quickly look better.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Before you know it this thing will be in the range of the NAM and things will quickly look better.

 

 

True that. It's not out there in day 10+ la la land. Its definitely close enough to take seriously.

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31 minutes ago, Voyager said:

True that. It's not out there in day 10+ la la land. Its definitely close enough to take seriously.

While we wait for the next model to step up and be our hero we can throw anything we want out to see if it sticks...I looked at the JMA and NoGaps and both seem to move the low under PA though it is very close and would probably not be snow for the LSV taken verbatim with marginal air.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Dammit. This is the second hand of the game, and I haven't even had to put in a blind, but it's time. I'm going all-in. 

Same here haha. I gotta get to 50" to call it an average season back this way and I'm not even to 10" yet. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I think it’s safe for me to post again now so I’m here to will this weekend storm to fruition. 

Blizzard, bring it home for the entire region! 

Thanks man, I’ll see what I can do !

Good to see you back!

The 12z EPS mean track still goes under us. The ensemble member low locations are still ranging from inland runners, coastal huggers & ideal tracks.

We are still very much in the game!

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I think it’s safe for me to post again now so I’m here to will this weekend storm to fruition. 

Coward

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here’s more from CTP this morning:

“The overall synoptic setup with a cold high anchored to the NE and a plume of tropical moisture moving north ahead of it spells trouble in the form another possible snow/sleet event. The nose of a moderately strong LLJ (about +2 sigma at 925 mb), that`s bending cyclonically back into the region will lead to the potential for a moderate to locally heavy precip late Friday right into Sunday morning.”

 

I dunno if i'd call it a "cold" high in the sense of it being a source of cold like we had for most of Sat's event but the presence of high pressure to the north to force the storm to the coast also sets up that LLJ they mention.. which is the anomalous easterly flow off the Atlantic. This storm has "the look" I want to see in that department, with the GFS having at least a -3 sigma at 850mb and greater than -5 at one point on the Euro (that's a really strong easterly fetch). That's a major tip off I look for with the potential of an excessive snowfall event, which I'll put up the examples below. Obviously the problem here is the marginal cold we're working with at that level (and overall). The Euro's very highly anomalous easterly flow at 850mb is probably too much for the marginal temps at that level, which leaves the LSV out of the snow but smacks the western half of the state. The GFS has been just a bit colder as well which has made the difference for the LSV. Looking at 12z guidance the Euro is a bit NW of the GFS with all the features (surface low and 850 low) and just a bit warmer aloft. Canadian seems the most NW for this model cycle out of the ops. I'd be curious for a look at GEFS and Euro ensembles. 

This storm happening as models generally have it would potentially be a higher category KU type NESIS event with just having a modified arctic airmass to work with. But without that this is still a possible heavy snow event, but it favors interior locations NW of the megalopolis and potentially NW of I-81 in PA if the slightly warmer Euro had it's way. 

850mb wind anomalies

12z GFS at 123hr

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12z Euro at 123hr

ecmwfued-uwn--usmercator-123-C-850uwnstd_whitecounty.thumb.png.28b51b3df44a08d6be8520b8567c110a.png

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The 18z GFS had a similar track to its 12z run, but the temps & thermals were slightly different, so it produced less snow this run. 

I would take a 2 to 6  inch snow event here in the LSV id need be, but much more is certainly on the table if everything comes together just right.

We still have 5 days to go to nail down the track & determine who will be in the bullseye.

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Well 18Z GFS took all of the Southern 1/3 of PA out of the hunt for now but still close enough to watch. 

Far from out of the hunt, that track still looks good, just slightly different outcome.

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16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Far from out of the hunt, that track still looks good, just slightly different outcome.

Out of the hunt was specific to this particular model run.   I personally would prefer rain and 50's over a couple inches of snow and then rain and 30's.  If you look back at some classic MEC/HEC situations, even in the times of a deeper cold mass, we want the surface reflection down near Norfolk and east of the DelMarVa not running right through the DelMarVa.  We need it south of what the 12Z GFS showed regardless of the algorithms that showed snow on it. 

 

One positive considering our lack of CAD/deep cold air is there is little forcing shown in the GFS so there should not be a spout of warm air coming up....just do not want ANY warm air considering we have no cold to give :-).

 

It shows almost the same exact thing happening again on Jan 30.   Not as much the origination vs. a low running right through the DelMarVa which is just far enough north to turn the LSV over.   Our benchmark in the LSV is not on land. 

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19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Out of the hunt was specific to this particular model run.   I personally would prefer rain and 50's over a couple inches of snow and then rain and 30's.  If you look back at some classic MEC/HEC situations, even in the times of a deeper cold mass, we want the surface reflection down near Norfolk and east of the DelMarVa not running right through the DelMarVa.  We need it south of what the 12Z GFS showed regardless of the algorithms that showed snow on it. 

 

One positive considering our lack of CAD/deep cold air is there is little forcing shown in the GFS so there should not be a spout of warm air coming up....just do not want ANY warm air considering we have no cold to give :-).

 

It shows almost the same exact thing happening again on Jan 30.   Not as much the origination vs. a low running right through the DelMarVa which is just far enough north to turn the LSV over.   Our benchmark in the LSV is not on land. 

That's where I am. I hate 2 inch snows that don't do much more than bring the salt trucks out, and sleet and freezing rain really do nothing for me anyway. Not to mention that shoveling "concrete" sucks. Give me a 6+ inch all snow event, or just give me a torch and rain.

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Out of the hunt was specific to this particular model run.   I personally would prefer rain and 50's over a couple inches of snow and then rain and 30's.  If you look back at some classic MEC/HEC situations, even in the times of a deeper cold mass, we want the surface reflection down near Norfolk and east of the DelMarVa not running right through the DelMarVa.  We need it south of what the 12Z GFS showed regardless of the algorithms that showed snow on it. 

 

One positive considering our lack of CAD/deep cold air is there is little forcing shown in the GFS so there should not be a spout of warm air coming up....just do not want ANY warm air considering we have no cold to give :-).

 

It should almost the same exact thing happening again on Jan 30.   Not as much the origination vs. a low running right through the DelMarVa which is just far enough north to turn the LSV over.   Our benchmark in the LSV is not on land. 

The ensembles show lots of possibilities with the track, which probably won’t be nailed down until Thursday night or Friday. 

While our benchmark is not on land, coastal huggers & just barely off of the coast tracks are ideal here back towards   I-81. Otherwise, we get fringed & it’s congrats I-95. Most of our best storms, they mix or turn to rain.

You are right about having No cold air to spare. This storm doesn’t look to be a rapidly deepening storm, so precip rates & exact track will make all the difference.

I would be fine with a few inches of snow followed by mixing, then back to snow. A good old 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 inch snowstorm would be good. Not every storm can or needs to be a KU. 

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13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The ensembles show lots of possibilities with the track, which probably won’t be nailed down until Thursday night or Friday. 

While our benchmark is not on land, coastal huggers & just barely off of the coast tracks are ideal here back towards   I-81. Otherwise, we get fringed & it’s congrats I-95. Most of our best storms, they mix or turn to rain.

You are right about having No cold air to spare. This storm doesn’t look to be a rapidly deepening storm, so precip rates & exact track will make all the difference.

I would be fine with a few inches of snow followed by mixing, then back to snow. A good old 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 inch snowstorm would be good. Not every storm can or needs to be a KU. 

Right, I am just discussing what the 18Z GFS showed.  If that surface or 850 reflection gets anywhere near Philly

1) We are toast snow wise.

2) It will leave our state disappointed which is the standard reaction of most who decide Philly should be on their vacation plans.

 

 

 

 

 

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