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nj2va

January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

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7 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

Oh boy...taking the family to Disney for the first time this Sunday (out of BWI).  I will never root against snow, but hoping for an earlier onset Saturday morning and clearing out by the evening.

If your flight isnt until Sunday, I doubt this effects it

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16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Can we start a thread for this?  It'd be helpful to separate this threat from the LR discussion.

Let’s hold off. 18z at least or after the complete 12z suite 

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op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat.  Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west.  But its damn close to a big storm for that range.   Just need a slight adjustment.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat.  Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west.  But its damn close to a big storm for that range.   Just need a slight adjustment.  

That "weird brief warmup" that the gfs op keeps showing is actually supported by the ens now. EPS really picked up on it on the 0z run. Makes sense as the pattern change is a step down process and not like Feb 2015 where winter blew in violently with a single front. Our change to better conditions this time looks more like a multi step process. 

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All ops are converging on a colder start to the storm next weekend. The 0z EPS ticked up quite a bit with # of solutions that have snowfall in SW VA. Now the ops are agreeing with that. We're getting close to locking in some sort of winter wx event now. By this time tomorrow if everything holds or improves it's probably game on here. Warm fronts can be modeled decent 3-4 days in advance so these op runs are at least believable. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Last 3 GGEM runs

GEMtrend.thumb.gif.48b3d9ee4e8b6fea8f7378550d5ee15e.gif

If the trend is our friend, the next jump south would have us worried about too much of a good thing lol.

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3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

If the trend is our friend, the next jump south would have us worried about too much of a good thing lol.

Nah, get me in that 8" bullseye:D

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. 

Not sure why when this is trending in a good direction, and could have 3-6" upside when all is said and done, wit ha nice saturday morning scene nontheless

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. 

See below

 

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat.  Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west.  But its damn close to a big storm for that range.   Just need a slight adjustment.  

 

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That "weird brief warmup" that the gfs op keeps showing is actually supported by the ens now. EPS really picked up on it on the 0z run. Makes sense as the pattern change is a step down process and not like Feb 2015 where winter blew in violently with a single front. Our change to better conditions this time looks more like a multi step process. 

 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat.  Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west.  But its damn close to a big storm for that range.   Just need a slight adjustment.  

Will be awaiting for the afternoon EPS with bated breathe.  I am hoping for a more favorable West Based NAO.  If so, might be tracking at long leads. 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. 

PSU touched on it up above. It is REALLY close to big hit here. Definitely worth watching for sure.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That "weird brief warmup" that the gfs op keeps showing is actually supported by the ens now. EPS really picked up on it on the 0z run. Makes sense as the pattern change is a step down process and not like Feb 2015 where winter blew in violently with a single front. Our change to better conditions this time looks more like a multi step process. 

It's there on all guidance yes.  They all agree that a piece of the block in Canada will split and dive southeast and create some ridging a bit too far south than we would want for a short time.  But how that plays out isnt' all hostile like the GFS op.  The GFS really went crazy with that ridge and allowed the next wave to dig in and cut off to our west.  That said...even with everything going wrong it still ended up only 100 miles from a big coastal storm.  An inland runner at day 11 is not that big a deal.  There are lots of options how that plays out...the EPS has quite a few where that ridge actually acts to suppress a system to our south...and a few big hits in that range.  It's undecided how that ridge interacts with the other players.  It depends on how strong a piece dives into the northeast vs remains up in Canada.  More ridging "behind" that wave instead of in front and suddenly we have a 980 low off Ocean City instead of over Annapolis.  

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. 

Why look at a storm 11 days away when the models are jumping all over the place on this first one? There is very little chance they have the second storm even close to right yet. 

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pssst, banter in banter thread. :ph34r:

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LOL, c’mon guys. I was throwing shade on people who were downplaying this storm waiting on a better one.

No way we should ever look pst a threat especially the type that is as reliable as anything we have for delivering winter weather.

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53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GFS has a dryslot, probably due to down-sloping, across VA but I would have to look at the exact wind flow to see.  But that kind of dryslot, while possible, is dependent on the exact wind trajectory to be correct.   The lighter precip rates also negatively impact the thermal profile as less mixing out of the warm layer.  The result is ugly there...but that is not the kind of meso scale feature the GFS is going to get right at this range so don't worry, the larger more important factors all broke our way this run.  

Yeah.. I know! But we have been screwed like this before, so I cannot completely ignore it! I do agree that the details are far from being figured out.

 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks good to me and room to improve...

TPAMbfd.png

Wow that’s remarkable agreement for 120 hrs out. I think the good news is, that this is only 72-84 out from developing in the southern plains 

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