DAFF Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 hours ago, LansingWeather said: Yeah GRR's AFD's have been complete crud for the last few months. They use to be so detailed and now they are a few sentences. A shame... At least you get a forecast discussion.. EC is the worst wrt to so many elements of forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I still think the Euro is grossly underdoing the cold sector precip with this one, no matter what the path ends up.Couldn’t agree more. A low of this caliber is going to pull in a nice chunk of that cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 What was the timeline for the models to start sniffing out the Nov 11 system? Who was king that round? Thinking this might be a good guide of what to watch out for in the upcoming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 13 minutes ago, DAFF said: What was the timeline for the models to start sniffing out the Nov 11 system? Who was king that round? Thinking this might be a good guide of what to watch out for in the upcoming runs. The Euro on Nov 11th took the GFS behind the wood shed and gave it a harsh spanking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Early returns on the 00z NAM suggest it won't be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 We had the classic foreign vs American models in the runup to Nov 11. This time it's not so clean cut as the Canadian and UKMET are not as far south as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Early returns on the 00z NAM suggest it won't be suppressed. Would be a siggy run, if extrapolated beyond 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Would be a siggy run, if extrapolated beyond 84hr. Yeah it was definitely setting up for a long duration hit with that run, double barrel low with snow associated with WAA with the first low and the CCB with the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 NAM bias is typically for a more amped solution this far out, isn’t it? In that case I’d prefer it to show a cutter over the Dakotas as this juncture lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 24 minutes ago, mimillman said: NAM bias is typically for a more amped solution this far out, isn’t it? In that case I’d prefer it to show a cutter over the Dakotas as this juncture lol Not really much bias lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Will definitely make the rest of winter interesting if the GFS smokes the Euro with this. If the Euro ends up scoring big over the GFS again we'll basically be discounting the GFS entirely from here on out, which wouldn't be as fun lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 GFS caving, at least for now...Well south and weaker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: GFS caving, at least for now... Well south and weaker. . Too much junk in the northern stream none of it phasing, just getting in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 00Z GFS looking similar to 12z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 This solution is still well within the ensemble envelope I’m gonna be in Chicago the 16th -22nd so I need this one to work out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Relatively snowless December at ORD prediction still alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Relatively snowless December at ORD prediction still aliveIf this one doesn’t work out, under 1” will be close to a lock. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I'm sure the 1st of many model shifts we will see. I think gfs is probably too north and bullish and euro is too south and stingy. Not surprising to see gfs cave somewhat. Still not as bad as euro but definitely a step in the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: If this one doesn’t work out, under 1” will be close to a lock. . Found this interesting for those holding out for snow chances later this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 00Z CMC just holds back the entire s/w and consequently no storm. Almost looks like the 00Z Icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: 00Z CMC just holds back the entire s/w and consequently no storm. Almost looks like the 00Z Icon. That piece that drops through Manitoba is screwing with things. That wasn't nearly as strong on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I graduate from UIUC in a little over a week and I need that Champaign special on the 0z GFS. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, Stebo said: That piece that drops through Manitoba is screwing with things. That wasn't nearly as strong on previous runs. I agree. Per 500mb vort maps it does appear to dig a bit deeper than previous runs. 00Z CMC speeds up the northern stream, but you can see the s/w isn't nearly as strong either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Now unless something changes, this storm appears to be our "best" chance for snow through atleast Christmas. The ridge axis following this storm isn't ideal for a winter storm, especially for those in Chicago and further ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: If this one doesn’t work out, under 1” will be close to a lock. . I would not be that confident at all, but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 The Euro trended quite nicely tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Comical. Gfs trended toward how euro had been and now euro trended a step toward how gfs had been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Comical. Gfs trended toward how euro had been and now euro trended a step toward how gfs had been Suddenly the subtitle of this thread is very ironic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Suddenly the subtitle of this thread is very ironic All part of the plan. Definitely significant differences on this run. Having the vast majority of EPS members farther north at 12z was sort of an indication that a move like this was a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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